Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:47 pm
0Z NAM is startling to come in... let's see what we got here!
Absolute Vorticity
Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
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Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:52 pm
Back on again and the nam like Les mentioned is running
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:57 pm
0Z NAM QPF thru 1pm Sat:
CVG - 0.33"
HAO - 0.16"
MGY - 0.10"
DAY - 0.07"
CMH - 0.15"
FGX - 0.85" - Mainly rain
CVG - 0.33"
HAO - 0.16"
MGY - 0.10"
DAY - 0.07"
CMH - 0.15"
FGX - 0.85" - Mainly rain
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:00 pm
Ok folks... due to work, I've been up since about 3:30am so I need some sleep so I don't sleep thru the snow in the morning. 
I will be back in the morning with some coffee and hopefully enjoying some nice big flakes falling! Please keep up the talk on this system and I'll catch up. 
I will be back in the morning with some coffee and hopefully enjoying some nice big flakes falling! Please keep up the talk on this system and I'll catch up. Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:24 pm
Finally the CVG office put out a special weather statement with 1 inch and upwards of 2 inches in isolated spots. Interesting to see if the models are handling this system correctly.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:36 pm
The advisories will be expanded later in typical ILN fashion.
Forecast looks solid. 2-5” for Cincinnati. I’m working tonight so I will pop in as much as possible.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:45 pm
Sitting at 32 here with a 26 dp.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:56 pm
Nice! You’re already nearly saturated with that DP. I doubt we see much virga except for a little bit right at the beginning. QPF amounts lost will be negligible.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:07 pm
Some of those forecasts down in central Ky are not going to verify. Warm air will win out down there. We are in a great spot in the Cincy area!
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:21 pm
GFS seems to be tracking next weekends storm well north. Looks like we get thunderstorms... Hope it trends back south, we are too warm.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:58 pm
Anyone is northern Kentucky seeing snow? Dry ridge looks to be getting a nice band
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:32 am
Looks like sleet per PING reports.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:05 am
Sleet/flake mix here in Blue Ash.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:50 am
Nothing yet here in Amelia
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:28 am
Freezing rain here in Maineville/Morrow area. Deck has a nice glaze all over it. This will be a bust for most on snowfall.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:32 am
Good Morning and sitting at 33 and light rain. The sneaky little warm layer got us again. I can see where some frz/rain because the temps yesterday were slightly colder than models showed. If the precip can just pick up a tad we can switch to snow for a period of time but higher totals are not happening.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:39 am
Per mesoanalysis we should be snow right now. We are right on the line but unless I’m missing something we are below freezing aloft. Must be a sneaky warm layer not showing up. A sounding would be helpful right now.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:42 am
Trevor that is where models have a problem and you try to forecast around that but its such a fine line especially when temps are marginal and only a set amount of time for an event
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:43 am
It’s half/half rain and snow here.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:44 am
Yeah man always a pain. I figured the trouble areas would be down in KY which is why I bumped everything northward.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:46 am
It’s trying to change over here right now. Struggling but it’s trying lol
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:48 am
I switched my forecast and went 1-3. Reasoning was I thought we would see between 3 and maybe 6 hours of snow falling. Only about 5 hours left and hopefully can get 3 hours of snow to reach the lower end. My bust was for folks south and that has happened but I thought the overachiever was east of here and ended up towards Indy.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:51 am
The lower end of ranges can still verify we just need it to switch soon. Like you said about five hours of precip left.tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:48 am I switched my forecast and went 1-3. Reasoning was I thought we would see between 3 and maybe 6 hours of snow falling. Only about 5 hours left and hopefully can get 3 hours of snow to reach the lower end. My bust was for folks south and that has happened but I thought the overachiever was east of here and ended up towards Indy.
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:54 am
I can finally report all snow falling here in white oak
Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:30 am
Starting to see more snow reports showing up on PING.