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Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:47 pm
by tron777
0Z NAM is startling to come in... let's see what we got here!

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:52 pm
by tpweather
Back on again and the nam like Les mentioned is running

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:57 pm
by tron777
0Z NAM QPF thru 1pm Sat:

CVG - 0.33"
HAO - 0.16"
MGY - 0.10"
DAY - 0.07"
CMH - 0.15"

FGX - 0.85" - Mainly rain

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:00 pm
by tron777
Ok folks... due to work, I've been up since about 3:30am so I need some sleep so I don't sleep thru the snow in the morning. :lol: I will be back in the morning with some coffee and hopefully enjoying some nice big flakes falling! Please keep up the talk on this system and I'll catch up. :)

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:24 pm
by tpweather
Finally the CVG office put out a special weather statement with 1 inch and upwards of 2 inches in isolated spots. Interesting to see if the models are handling this system correctly.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:36 pm
by Trevor
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 9:24 pm Finally the CVG office put out a special weather statement with 1 inch and upwards of 2 inches in isolated spots. Interesting to see if the models are handling this system correctly.
The advisories will be expanded later in typical ILN fashion.

Forecast looks solid. 2-5” for Cincinnati. I’m working tonight so I will pop in as much as possible.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:45 pm
by mainevilleweather
Sitting at 32 here with a 26 dp.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:56 pm
by Trevor
mainevilleweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 10:45 pm Sitting at 32 here with a 26 dp.
Nice! You’re already nearly saturated with that DP. I doubt we see much virga except for a little bit right at the beginning. QPF amounts lost will be negligible.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:07 pm
by Trevor
Some of those forecasts down in central Ky are not going to verify. Warm air will win out down there. We are in a great spot in the Cincy area!

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:21 pm
by mainevilleweather
GFS seems to be tracking next weekends storm well north. Looks like we get thunderstorms... Hope it trends back south, we are too warm.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 11:58 pm
by mikeyp
Anyone is northern Kentucky seeing snow? Dry ridge looks to be getting a nice band

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 12:32 am
by Trevor
Looks like sleet per PING reports.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 1:05 am
by Trevor
Sleet/flake mix here in Blue Ash.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 2:50 am
by Mjr
Nothing yet here in Amelia

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:28 am
by Sargent51
Freezing rain here in Maineville/Morrow area. Deck has a nice glaze all over it. This will be a bust for most on snowfall.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:32 am
by tpweather
Good Morning and sitting at 33 and light rain. The sneaky little warm layer got us again. I can see where some frz/rain because the temps yesterday were slightly colder than models showed. If the precip can just pick up a tad we can switch to snow for a period of time but higher totals are not happening.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:39 am
by Trevor
Per mesoanalysis we should be snow right now. We are right on the line but unless I’m missing something we are below freezing aloft. Must be a sneaky warm layer not showing up. A sounding would be helpful right now.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:42 am
by tpweather
Trevor wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:39 am Per mesoanalysis we should be snow right now. We are right on the line but unless I’m missing something we are below freezing aloft. Must be a sneaky warm layer not showing up. A sounding would be helpful right now.
Trevor that is where models have a problem and you try to forecast around that but its such a fine line especially when temps are marginal and only a set amount of time for an event

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:43 am
by Trevor
It’s half/half rain and snow here.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:44 am
by Trevor
tpweather wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:42 am
Trevor wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:39 am Per mesoanalysis we should be snow right now. We are right on the line but unless I’m missing something we are below freezing aloft. Must be a sneaky warm layer not showing up. A sounding would be helpful right now.
Trevor that is where models have a problem and you try to forecast around that but its such a fine line especially when temps are marginal and only a set amount of time for an event
Yeah man always a pain. I figured the trouble areas would be down in KY which is why I bumped everything northward.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:46 am
by Trevor
It’s trying to change over here right now. Struggling but it’s trying lol

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:48 am
by tpweather
I switched my forecast and went 1-3. Reasoning was I thought we would see between 3 and maybe 6 hours of snow falling. Only about 5 hours left and hopefully can get 3 hours of snow to reach the lower end. My bust was for folks south and that has happened but I thought the overachiever was east of here and ended up towards Indy.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:51 am
by Trevor
tpweather wrote: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:48 am I switched my forecast and went 1-3. Reasoning was I thought we would see between 3 and maybe 6 hours of snow falling. Only about 5 hours left and hopefully can get 3 hours of snow to reach the lower end. My bust was for folks south and that has happened but I thought the overachiever was east of here and ended up towards Indy.
The lower end of ranges can still verify we just need it to switch soon. Like you said about five hours of precip left.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 6:54 am
by mikeyp
I can finally report all snow falling here in white oak

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 7:30 am
by Trevor
Starting to see more snow reports showing up on PING.