Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:13 pm Good Afternoon and 60 was nice though still a tad on the windy side at times. Where will the cutoff be later Saturday in terms of the heavier rain. Most folks could use some rainfall and everyone should get some but locally still going with .5-1.0. The cutoff could be so tight and even in the local area where somebody gets .25 in the northwest part of the area and 1.25 in the southeast. We will see where this sets up later Saturday.

Concerning the longer term and really when will the pattern change. The Nao is a factor before Christmas and if this changes say in the 18-21st period this helps. Another thing I will be looking at is in the pacific. If a storm is southwest of Alaska later next week into the following week how strong will this be and is it one storm or several. Do we get one big storm that comes up through Alaska and then sends the cold that will be in Alaska eastward towards the Yukon. Then if those items happen you can get the PV to become elongated over east central Canada and that can push down cold air into the eastern half of the USA by the 21st. This is the way I see the changeover before Christmas. I know the models will show the fast winds in the pacific that floods the USA and sure that can happen but if the storm is either weaker southwest of Alaska or has moved away this should allow ridging to grab hold to a certain extent and really slow down the winds.

Les and I are not on the same page with this and it happens several times during the year and not always but it seems the truth is somewhere between both forecasts. When we are on the same page I feel more confident of course and really this is more about the timing then what the end result will end up being.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:46 pm There better be a tall blocking ridge in place by the time the PAC jet firehose advances




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Bgoney wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2023 6:59 am Cluster of showers and wind for eastern counties early this morning dropped .25” here. A good start

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Dec 09, 2023 8:27 am Bgoney,folks to the north of us in the northern plains and upper mid-west are torching this December with some averaging 20 or more degrees above normal. My guess to the south and east of us temps have been slightly below normal because of more clouds but probably 5 degrees below normal for December and that of course is not everywhere south of us

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 10:25 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 10:10 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 10:06 am

Angelika wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 9:54 amWhat is SZW?

Screw-Zone Watch. I know , it’s sophomoric.

No wonder I couldn't find that particular abbreviation in some of the online wx glossaries.

lol, Eric. Just trying to jazz up our bluesey of a weather pattern. You should see my own personal WX glossary I have , it’s a doozy

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Dec 08, 2023 3:19 pm Marginal comes up to our southern posters. Will need to see if 00z and 06z high-res models continue this. If so, that risk area may need to be nudged north a bit.