December 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and 60 was nice though still a tad on the windy side at times. Where will the cutoff be later Saturday in terms of the heavier rain. Most folks could use some rainfall and everyone should get some but locally still going with .5-1.0. The cutoff could be so tight and even in the local area where somebody gets .25 in the northwest part of the area and 1.25 in the southeast. We will see where this sets up later Saturday.

Concerning the longer term and really when will the pattern change. The Nao is a factor before Christmas and if this changes say in the 18-21st period this helps. Another thing I will be looking at is in the pacific. If a storm is southwest of Alaska later next week into the following week how strong will this be and is it one storm or several. Do we get one big storm that comes up through Alaska and then sends the cold that will be in Alaska eastward towards the Yukon. Then if those items happen you can get the PV to become elongated over east central Canada and that can push down cold air into the eastern half of the USA by the 21st. This is the way I see the changeover before Christmas. I know the models will show the fast winds in the pacific that floods the USA and sure that can happen but if the storm is either weaker southwest of Alaska or has moved away this should allow ridging to grab hold to a certain extent and really slow down the winds.

Les and I are not on the same page with this and it happens several times during the year and not always but it seems the truth is somewhere between both forecasts. When we are on the same page I feel more confident of course and really this is more about the timing then what the end result will end up being.

Tim... I am going with the MJO for my longer term prediction more then you are and I think that is where we are differing with regards to the timing. As of 12/7 we are indeed in Phase 5 now. The rest of my MJO thoughts still stand from my post earlier this morning.

[Bgoney]

There better be a tall blocking ridge in place by the time the PAC jet firehose advances

IMG_0977.gif

[tron777]

There better be a tall blocking ridge in place by the time the PAC jet firehose advances




IMG_0977.gif

I've been reading about the Pacific Jet Extension and sometimes it's not all bad news. In an El Nino, it can help promote a +PNA but it will depend on where the Aleutian Low is located. Too far East and it's a Pacific Jet firehouse and it will flood the country with mild Pacific air. But, if the low is further to the West over the Aleutians where it is supposed to be then it will be just fine to promote the +PNA and get some cross polar flow going as well thanks to the -EPO. The position of the Aleutian Low will be absolutely critical and something we will definitely need to watch in the longer term.

Towards the end of that model animation, you can see the PNA ridge developing so if it pans out exactly as shown in this image, it won't be all that bad IMO. From this distance it is purely speculative.

[Bgoney]

Cluster of showers and wind for eastern counties early this morning dropped .25” here. A good start

[tpweather]

Cluster of showers and wind for eastern counties early this morning dropped .25” here. A good start

Nice start and I got 0.06 and CVG 0.02. Just looking at the pattern this morning and it looks like the low that will develop to the south is just a tad west of what models showed yesterday. So what does that mean for us and maybe the rain lasts and extra hour or two overall. Sticking with the .5-1.0 but not seeing much over an inch for most folks though we know just a heavier thundershower can produce a quick 1/2 inch but that will be isolated if at all.

Bgoney love the map above and this could be a nice heavy weight fight in 2 weeks as the pacific fire hose working its way in and the cold trying its best to head south. This is a setup where a big storm can finally form before it hits the east coast. Knowing my luck it hits when I head to Wisconsin on the 27th of Dec

[tron777]

Good morning all! 0.07" here and 0.09" at the Boone Co mesonet. Let's all wish our Fearless Leader Trev a very HAPPY BIRTHDAY today! I'm happy to see you posting regularly again on our forum!!!

[tron777]

The GFS is trying to make things a bit more interesting around the 17th with a system dropping in from the NW trying to phase with the STJ wave coming up from the south. It's a shame we have zero cold air to work with, otherwise snow chances with that storm would be much higher. CMC is showing it also with the Euro well to the East.

[tpweather]

Happy Birthday Trev!! Hope its the best one ever and try to behave lol

[tron777]

Concerning our current system, not too much happening for a while now with just scattered showerers until the front gets closer this afternoon. 3pm thru about 9pm is the best chance for heavy rain and any t-storm activity that we may see. I believe severe wx will occur4 to our SW but a strong storm cannot be ruled out in our SW counties. We could end the event with a snow shower or two tomorrow but otherwise we are quiet for next week. Highs in the 40s, lows in the 20s warming back into the 50s by the end of next week.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les. When I look at models and especially more than 10 days out or so I always have in the back of my mind that they head towards the mean that far out. Does not mean its wrong but as we know patterns can change because of 1 or 2 events especially in the winter months. Overall for the winter I believe the pattern will favor the east coast but we won't get shut out because we will be to close to the action.

Still watching the weather in Siberia and coldest this morning -49. Cold but nothing unusual for them and again if I see longer range forecasts over there of temps getting into the -60 and below for an extended period then this tells me the PV is strong and of course not good for us in terms of longer term cold. Sure we can get snow in just a normal pattern because we are headed into mid-December but you are really threading the needle.

[Bgoney]

Comparing other warm starts of December

IMG_0978.jpeg

[tpweather]

Bgoney,folks to the north of us in the northern plains and upper mid-west are torching this December with some averaging 20 or more degrees above normal. My guess to the south and east of us temps have been slightly below normal because of more clouds but probably 5 degrees below normal for December and that of course is not everywhere south of us

[Bgoney]

To the newest member of the SLC (Snow Lovers Club)

IMG_0979.jpeg

[Bgoney]

Bgoney,folks to the north of us in the northern plains and upper mid-west are torching this December with some averaging 20 or more degrees above normal. My guess to the south and east of us temps have been slightly below normal because of more clouds but probably 5 degrees below normal for December and that of course is not everywhere south of us

Tim, without that snowpack we talk about in the plains those warmups are huge. Here’s a map for the lower 48

IMG_0980.png

[tron777]

North American snow cover is at a decadal low too.

NA SnowCover.jpeg

[Trevor]

Cluster of thunderstorms heading up the river toward the tri-state.

Thanks for the happy bday wishes!

[tron777]

Looks like a nice b-day present from Mother Nature for you Trev.

[snowbo]

Happy birthday Trevor!!!!

[Bgoney]

Current and previous lightning strikes

IMG_0981.jpeg

[MVWxObserver]

What is SZW?

Screw-Zone Watch. I know , it’s sophomoric.

No wonder I couldn't find that particular abbreviation in some of the online wx glossaries.

lol, Eric. Just trying to jazz up our bluesey of a weather pattern. You should see my own personal WX glossary I have , it’s a doozy

I hear ya, bro!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 61, DAY 59 and CMH 60 yesterday.

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY 32ND BIRTHDAY TREV!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy! Hats off to you and your folks on this wonderful wx family community forum!!

[Trevor]

Marginal comes up to our southern posters. Will need to see if 00z and 06z high-res models continue this. If so, that risk area may need to be nudged north a bit.

Damaging wind marginal added for the tri-state. Of course the best threat for severe is south, but we could see a couple warnings later for wind.

[tron777]

Had a thunder shower here in Milford. Sunshine is back out now.

[Trevor]

This will be the activity that we deal with later. Heavy downpours and lightning are the greatest risks followed by a low-end risk for damaging winds.

4-8pm is our window.