Absolute Vorticity

Lake effect for Buffalo next week is looking awesome

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2023 7:31 pm Lake effect for Buffalo next week is looking awesome

Indeed... I always love reading NWS BUF's AFD's in these situations.

From a climatological standpoint the pattern supports a significant
lake effect snow event with the placement and depth of the low
pressure system. The placement of the surface low (likely sub 990 mb
at start of the lake effect event) and 850 hPa low (around 120 dm)
to the west of James Bay would support more of a southwest lake
effect snow event off the eastern Great Lakes. This would include
the metro areas of Buffalo and Watertown. How the 500 hPa low
consolidates and its placement is at present time is favoring either
southwest or a westerly lake effect event. One concern with this
event is the available synoptic moisture. While the pattern supports
significant lake effect snow, the deeper synoptic moisture will
carry northward of our region with the surface low. A look at BUFKIT
profiles still shows adequate moisture in the snow dendritic growth
zone under inversion heights that will rise to near 12K feet.

Still many details to iron out in the next few days as far as band
placement and intensity goes. While lake effect snow is likely, will
carry high chance to low likely PoPs for now as this is still late
day 6 and 7 of the forecast period...with the lake effect snow
potentially carrying on deep into the long Thanksgiving holiday
weekend. Passing shortwaves aloft from the upstream mid/upper level
low will bring some oscillation to the bands of lake effect snow
Thursday and onwards. Regardless of where the bands eventually setup
travel disruptions are becoming likely from the lake snows, so stay
tuned as the forecast becomes fine tuned.

Wednesday is going to be a cold day. Gusty winds and temps in the 30s leading to some low wind chills for November standards. I expect we could see some nice snow shower/squall activity as well. I introduced that to my forecast a couple days ago.

Good Friday to you all! In addition to the above, I'm also glad Turkey Day will be cold! With the oven going and a house full of people, it gets so hot anyway that the cold air outside will help in keeping the house cooler inside.

In the short term, rain showers are knocking on our door and will be moving in as the morning goes on. Activity is light at this time. Our high for the day is this morning in the lower 60s and we will fall once the front passes this afternoon and evening.

For Tues of next week, the GFS and CMC have the wound up phased system with snow showers on Wed as Trev mentioned. The euro is much more tame since it holds energy back over the SW. I am discounting the Euro at this time and going with the GFS and CMC solutions. In fact, the CMC has been the most consistent model with this system IMO. I know when Tim gets back from HH, he'll like that.

The GFS then shows a wintry weather over the Holiday Weekend with some light snow to light rain scenario. CMC is a little slower so a warmer solution, light rain. Euro is very cold and dry as a piece of the PV drops into the Great Lakes. Let the model battle begin!

Still looks like a weakening more south, less phased trend from most models for early next week, imo. Less moisture to pick up from the GOM for our hoods and westward

6Z GFS is back to the unphased solution.

Moderate rain now... haven't seen this in a while.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:23 am Moderate rain now... haven't seen this in a while.

had a downpour a bit ago and two moderate rain events so far this morning. Rest of the leaves on the trees are falling in my back yard and I just did a clean sweep of it all Wednesday after work!

Downpours moving through the metro now. Couple of lightning strikes in NKY.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:23 am Moderate rain now... haven't seen this in a while.

had a downpour a bit ago and two moderate rain events so far this morning. Rest of the leaves on the trees are falling in my back yard and I just did a clean sweep of it all Wednesday after work!

I have another big leaf mulch upcoming as the oaks are finally letting loose.

Per radar, we will be in and out of the rain showers today. Cold front looks to be back across extreme W IN / E ILL area.

I’m sitting at just shy of .40 this morning.

10am Totals:

CVG - 0.20"
Me - 0.18"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.15"

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:51 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:23 am Moderate rain now... haven't seen this in a while.

had a downpour a bit ago and two moderate rain events so far this morning. Rest of the leaves on the trees are falling in my back yard and I just did a clean sweep of it all Wednesday after work!

I have another big leaf mulch upcoming as the oaks are finally letting loose.

I'm not sure what this tree is in my back yard (maybe a tulip tree as it has these orangish flowers in the spring) and it grew real tall real fast, but a lot of the leaves have freeze dried on the tree due to the drought and an early freeze a few weeks ago. This big pine on my side yard is still dropping needles and pine cones.

A non phased system for next week from both the GFS and CMC on today's 12z run. Thus not as cold next week. We will see what happens in future runs.

I remain happy with how this fall has been overall. I said a couple months ago I just wanted an average autumn and that is just what I got so I cant complain. I would be ecstatic if the fall like conditions remain till late December but I know eventually my luck will run out

dce wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:17 am A non phased system for next week from both the GFS and CMC on today's 12z run. Thus not as cold next week. We will see what happens in future runs.

Not surprised at all, it’s basically an open wave of junk vorticity(GFS)

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:43 am

dce wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:17 am A non phased system for next week from both the GFS and CMC on today's 12z run. Thus not as cold next week. We will see what happens in future runs.

Not surprised at all, it’s basically an open wave of junk vorticity(GFS)

Looks like the southern energy is too quick and the northern energy is a bit too far behind for Tues of next week. 12z CMC drops the PV hammer like the 0Z Euro did with regards to the Holiday Weekend where the 0Z GFS has a stronger system and a cutter (rain for us and a nice snow for Lower Michigan).

BG's SnowTalk! from earlier:

Update on my page re: model inconsistencies with images to show the differences (which are huge).

No doubt Trev that the models are really struggling for next week. 12Z Euro also coming in with a non-phased / weaker solution for Tuesday.

1pm totals:

CVG - 0.36"
Me - 0.30"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.23"

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 1:25 pm 1pm totals:

CVG - 0.36"
Me - 0.30"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.23"

Our quarter to half inch call is money.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 1:53 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 17, 2023 1:25 pm 1pm totals:

CVG - 0.36"
Me - 0.30"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.23"

Our quarter to half inch call is money.