Absolute Vorticity

The skies just opened up here! Heavy rain currently falling... Waaa Hoooo!!!!

Just a few hundredths with that downpour. It only lasted a few mins and then that was all she wrote! Pavement is beginning to dry now. The area of rain pushing in from the SW continues to weaken and well, this event in my mind is going to end up like most of the others unfortunately.

Good Morning Les and the forecast looks good. Hopefully the band of rain just to the southwest hits the local area for at least a few hours. Going to talk somewhat about the extended forecast. This week looks rather easy to forecast with a warming trend late in the week. Though its not the tropics area I still believe okay to post in this area.

The Atlantic side is very quiet and no clear signs of any development. The eastern Pacific though is busy though and this is key. The energy for tropical systems at the moment is located in the eastern Pacific and not the Atlantic and you are seeing storms that are able to last much longer than normal in that area of the world.

Tropics play a big part in the weather over the eastern half of the country in late August and September. When we have a busy Atlantic season this usually keeps us near to above normal in temps until we can get a few systems to push through. If and yes a big If is when will the Atlantic start showing signs of life will be key later this month and in September. The longer it takes for the Hurricane season in the Atlantic to ramp up the better chance of seeing a trough dig into the central USA. If that occurs then a deeper trough like we see at the moment can happen more often and this will keep the heat from gaining any foothold in our area.

So yes a ramp up in temps late this week into the following week but this is not really happening because of the tropics and that is why I believe we see a 5-7 day ramp up in temps but nothing out of the ordinary and then we head back to what we have seen much of the summer and that is cooler air masses able to push further south and east. Sun angle this time of year is similar to mid-April so yes still still somewhat strong but each day that passes we lose a little bit on that end and daylight hours.

I believe the models will finally grasp this and sometimes in the extended they tend to head back to the mean for several days.

One final not and about 1/2 inch of rain here in Wausau overnight so the heavier rain is staying to the south and east. Heading to Ithaca,NY Wednesday morning and then will be back home late Friday to enjoy the heat lol. Feel like an early November day up here so heading back to the warmer temps is something I am not looking forward too.

This system is performing even worse then I thought. 0.06" here so far, that's it.

That is one nice little low pressure over Iowa this morning and looks more like mid-Oct -mid-Nov type of storm. Though not a ton of rainfall locally the clouds are thick and going to be hard to break those up in the afternoon and this no doubt lowers the chances of thunderstorms later as the front moves through. Timing has been bad recently for rain chances. Nearing 3/4 of an inch here in Wausau which for this part of the country is a nice rainfall. Been warmer than normal up here since June 1st but that does not mean you don't get those cooler spells. 57 last time I looked with a northeast wind around 10mph. When the wind does gusts it feels almost cold but the humidity is up so its more of moist cold than and dry cold air mass.

Quite the downpour here with 0.52”

Got a downpour happening at the moment. Wish it would stop as I was on a roll cutting yards today. Mainly because they are not very long. Be interesting to see what the rain gauge shows in a few minutes. It's about out of here.

Edit: just looked at 12:35 AND half an inch of rain has fallen.

Totals from my area which continue to be pathetic:

Me - 0.08"
CVG - 0.04"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.06"

Looking at the SPC Mesopage and we have Weak CAPE and some nice bulk shear but the CAPE just isn't going to be enough to generate a ton more convection. Too many clouds with only a few breaks in the clouds to the West. No changes from me... just scattered stuff for the rest of the day and into the evening. Severe risk looks to be very low if at all to be honest. The center of the MCV is moving thru the Tri-state now with the front still well back to the West over ILL. We need some luck to be quite honest for those of us who have received nothing to very little thus far from this system. It is not looking good in my mind.

Looking at the extended... looks like we should get a back door type cold front dropping in from the NE to shunt the heat back towards our SW. I'm currently expecting this around Thursday or so of next week. We should have 4 or 5 potential contest days coming up starting on Sunday. The GFS keeps wanting to show a tropical system in the Gulf around the 27th. From this distance, it's a fantasy, but the idea itself is not far fetched. Rainfall over the next 1-2 weeks looks slim IMO once we are past today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 1:00 pm Looking at the extended... looks like we should get a back door type cold front dropping in from the NE to shunt the heat back towards our SW. I'm currently expecting this around Thursday or so of next week. We should have 4 or 5 potential contest days coming up starting on Sunday. The GFS keeps wanting to show a tropical system in the Gulf around the 27th. From this distance, it's a fantasy, but the idea itself is not far fetched. Rainfall over the next 1-2 weeks looks slim IMO once we are past today.

I agree Les and we are going into the driest part of the growing season and rainfall is hard to come by in many years. The northeast has had many cold fronts this summer and though the Atlantic Ocean has been warm these systems do affect the northern Atlantic and in some cases further south which imo also can hamper tropical activity. Sure other factors as we see every year but adding these troughs has not help development. We will see some development because we still have enough warm waters but I still believe this is a below normal average when it comes to the number of tropical systems in the Atlantic. Concerning contest days and I believe 2 at 90 and above and 2 89 degree days. Getting later in August the way to hit 90 or above usually is more with drier air that can warm up quickly and not sure we are seeing that happening much in the next 10 days though this weekend we may hit 90 when we get that quick rise in temps before more moisture is added.

2pm totals:

CVG - 0.05"
Me - 0.09"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.06"

Been seeing a few sun peaks with temps warming into the U70s to around 80 degrees. Radar shows scattered downpours occurring from time to time across the area and that's pretty much all I expect too until the front passes this evening. Front is over Eastern ILL poised to cross over the Wabash and into IN soon.

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Nothing measurable so far, some scattered light stuff to my west

My hood got really lucky and we got a training line of localized showers with embedded heavy downpours from about 2:40pm thru about 4:30pm or so.

5pm Totals:

CVG - 0.12"
Me - 0.50"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.19"

Cold front running from IND to just West of Evansville with a line of storms associated with it. Last chance coming up for decent rains in the next few hours.

MD issued ahead of the front for those storms in IN - A watch is likely not to be issued.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1995.html

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 4:10 pm Nothing measurable so far, some scattered light stuff to my west

I truly feel for ya bro!

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MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 5:53 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 4:10 pm Nothing measurable so far, some scattered light stuff to my west

I truly feel for ya bro!

Same here! Sure hope you can get something with the cold front this evening.

Just got back from the Blue Willow Cafe. Wonderful food and it reminds me of the 60's and 70's. Back to the weather and it looks like most folks will get hit over the next few hours. Ended up with about .80 so a nice soaking. The folks up here are so nice and not to say that is not true at home but its a different vibe and everything moves a little slower which I love.

Radar looking promising this evening as the rain / t-storms move into the Tri-state area ahead of the cold front. Won't be long now for the Cincy Metro area.

Awesome Tim! So glad you are enjoying your time up there. So far it seems that you are going to like it much better then Greenville.

Still a couple months before we have the second severe season but I wonder if this pattern will continue and if so I believe the chances of severe weather will increase.

Les we do love it up here and again nothing against Greenville but once I got up here the first time my wife said I could not quit smiling and she knew this place really feels like home and hard to explain but feels like somewhere I could end up for the next 50 years lol.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Aug 14, 2023 7:33 pm Still a couple months before we have the second severe season but I wonder if this pattern will continue and if so I believe the chances of severe weather will increase.

Les we do love it up here and again nothing against Greenville but once I got up here the first time my wife said I could not quit smiling and she knew this place really feels like home and hard to explain but feels like somewhere I could end up for the next 50 years lol.

I totally get it, Tim! Number one the weather is better for you since you hate hot and humid (as do I). You love snow (as do I). If I can retire someday, I'd love to go back up North myself. I think I would love it also. Better fishing too!

Agree with you if the current pattern can persist into the Fall. Definitely think severe wx would be possible as summer tries to hold on and winter tries to take over. Wondering if Sept could be more active this year when it's usually one of our driest months. That would be a welcomed change.

Good luck folks! Hopefully the cold front will bring everyone 0.20 to 0.50" of rain and especially Bgoney!!! We are rooting for you!!!

Currently sitting in my car waiting for the rain to let up. It's raining pretty hard here in Fairfield.