Absolute Vorticity

Hey Tim, Very nice induction ceremony it was and always an exciting thrill to see Reds players from past decades, too!! Glad that Ma Nature held off until after the ceremony and first pitch scheduled for 8:25 according to Jim Day.

That's neat about Danny Graves e.g. as being the only Vietnamese-born player in MLB history. He was born in August 1973 and his American military father and Vietnamese mother moved their family to the USA before the fall of Saigon.

During the rain delay Jim Day was interviewing Eric Davis and Danny was in the announcer's booth talking with 2 other gentlemen whose names escape me but whom I should know their names.

Currently 73 here in G'ville.

Quick dump of rain added another 0.15 inches for a total of 0.7 inches.

Dome was on vaca today - picked up a total of 0.65”!

Man, I hope the guys can get it back together sooner than later as that 4 day break sure hasn't helped so far.

Brew Crew had to go and spoil this special day! **SMH**

Currently 66 here in G'ville. My final total for Sat is .62"

Good Sunday to you all! Dry today, but the Canadian wildfire smoke also makes a return visit today into Monday. Still thinking 60% coverage for Monday and 70 to 80% on Wed is my current call. Small chances Thurs and Fri then next weekend looks very nice at this time for outdoor plans!

A hazy 82 degrees with a dew of 67 in my hood this afternoon. Mowed the lawn earlier before the smoke and haze really took over. Pretty nasty outside and we'll have to wait for some rain and a cold front to cleanse the atmosphere.

Euro gives 0.25 to 0.50" tomorrow for the Tri-state and an inch plus on Wed! That would be great if the modal was correct. A huge if...

83 here today. CVG 82. We await the rain and air cleansing for tomorrow!

Decided to check radar, surprise! Got the attic windows closed and listening to the thunder. Cool gusts of wind. Looks like another small round sliding down I74. Not sure if that will hold together.

Another nice dose of rain overnight and about 0.38 at my house. The pattern is somewhat different than a normal mid-July period. The main reason is the jet is further south and much stronger than normal for this time of year. This is going to be a very busy week compared to normal with several chances of rain in the Ohio Valley. Have a front that will be nearby most of the week along with a strong jet and this can lead to rounds of heavy rain. Placement is much tougher to figure out but there is a chance that some folks get repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to some flooding which does not occur often this time of year. Still believe models are having a hard time in figuring out totals and one reason is this type of pattern is not one we see to often this time of year and models tend to play catch up.

I would go with a general 1-3 inches between today and Friday. Some folks especially further north and east may see totals under that but still rain chances are high and again somewhere in the Ohio Valley I can see totals over 5 inches with repeated rounds. By the weekend hopefully we return to a drier pattern and one that can feature sunshine but temps a few degrees of 80 which is wonderful this time of year. No long term heat expected though this week but it will be very muggy.

CVG picked up 0.41". I got missed and so did the Boone Co mesonet. Hope to get some rain today. Lawn could sure use it!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 7:23 am CVG picked up 0.41". I got missed and so did the Boone Co mesonet. Hope to get some rain today. Lawn could sure use it!

Good Morning Les and it was a narrow band that went through last night. The chances this week of getting some rain is above normal. The amount of moisture being pumped up from the GOM is very high and all we need is a trigger and that is with a front nearby much of the week and some disturbances coming through the area. Yes rain totals will vary greatly like most summer days but those who get under these rounds can get quite a bit in a short period which can cause the short term flash flooding. Will mow this morning but the lawn looks very green at the moment and really for this spring and summer its not looked better than today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 7:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 7:23 am CVG picked up 0.41". I got missed and so did the Boone Co mesonet. Hope to get some rain today. Lawn could sure use it!

Good Morning Les and it was a narrow band that went through last night. The chances this week of getting some rain is above normal. The amount of moisture being pumped up from the GOM is very high and all we need is a trigger and that is with a front nearby much of the week and some disturbances coming through the area. Yes rain totals will vary greatly like most summer days but those who get under these rounds can get quite a bit in a short period which can cause the short term flash flooding. Will mow this morning but the lawn looks very green at the moment and really for this spring and summer its not looked better than today.

I mowed yesterday. Just a few brown patches here in the areas that get the most sun. Lawn is looking pretty good actually all things considered. This time of year, I usually stop mowing for several weeks but haven't had to do that yet this year. If we can get some rain today we are good. Wed also and we are golden!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 7:34 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 7:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 7:23 am CVG picked up 0.41". I got missed and so did the Boone Co mesonet. Hope to get some rain today. Lawn could sure use it!

Good Morning Les and it was a narrow band that went through last night. The chances this week of getting some rain is above normal. The amount of moisture being pumped up from the GOM is very high and all we need is a trigger and that is with a front nearby much of the week and some disturbances coming through the area. Yes rain totals will vary greatly like most summer days but those who get under these rounds can get quite a bit in a short period which can cause the short term flash flooding. Will mow this morning but the lawn looks very green at the moment and really for this spring and summer its not looked better than today.

I mowed yesterday. Just a few brown patches here in the areas that get the most sun. Lawn is looking pretty good actually all things considered. This time of year, I usually stop mowing for several weeks but haven't had to do that yet this year. If we can get some rain today we are good. Wed also and we are golden!

Big item has been no long term heat and humidity. Much of May and June we were drier than normal but no long term heat or humidity. July we have seen and increase in the humidity lately but still no extended heat which has helped the lawns. I believe there is a chance of rain everyday this week but when and who gets the rain is really hard to forecast. Models give better shots today and Wednesday and I agree these are the two best days for rain but even Tuesday,Thursday and Friday some folks will probably get hit with a round or two. The amount of moisture and strong jet for this time of year is a recipe for some decent heavy rains. The heat ridge that has been in the southwest and given those folks some hot weather even for them is slowly pushing east. That heat ridge trying to flex its muscle against a trough coming down from Canada is going to cause a fight and that is why I believe rain chances and heavy rain is more likely than normal this time of year.

Tim... great post! I agree. The lack of 90s and periods of very high humidity I think have helped some too. More 70s and 80s and less in the way of 90s is a good thing in my opinion. I see the same pattern more or less continuing for July and starting August. That should mean more rain opportunities and the 80s when it isn't raining.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 8:58 am Tim... great post! I agree. The lack of 90s and periods of very high humidity I think have helped some too. More 70s and 80s and less in the way of 90s is a good thing in my opinion. I see the same pattern more or less continuing for July and starting August. That should mean more rain opportunities and the 80s when it isn't raining.

I agree Les and the tropical activity may not help us this year but even in a good year we may only be hit with leftovers from a couple of systems. I really thought June and first half of July would be hot and I was dead wrong. Still believe with and El Nino getting stronger the chances for an earlier fall will happen which means decent cold front in September that can bring us some upper 60's and low 70's for highs by mid-month. We will see and such a quick turnover from a decent La Nina to a decent El Nina could cause something completely different.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 10:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 8:58 am Tim... great post! I agree. The lack of 90s and periods of very high humidity I think have helped some too. More 70s and 80s and less in the way of 90s is a good thing in my opinion. I see the same pattern more or less continuing for July and starting August. That should mean more rain opportunities and the 80s when it isn't raining.

I agree Les and the tropical activity may not help us this year but even in a good year we may only be hit with leftovers from a couple of systems. I really thought June and first half of July would be hot and I was dead wrong. Still believe with and El Nino getting stronger the chances for an earlier fall will happen which means decent cold front in September that can bring us some upper 60's and low 70's for highs by mid-month. We will see and such a quick turnover from a decent La Nina to a decent El Nina could cause something completely different.

If the current pattern were to persist thru Aug and into Sept, then we would absolutely get Autumn started in an earlier then usual note. The tropics can be a wildcard too as you said, but you would expect that with El Nino, the tropical impacts should be somewhat muted. We'll see... it could turn out to be an interesting battle down the road.

Checked my rain guage this morning. Kind of surprised 0.25 in it.

I am hopeful that many of us will see at least some rain later today into tonight. Both the NAM and HRRR have pretty decent coverage. There are some holes (i.e. domes) so some will likely get more than others but that is typical for July. LOL

12Z GFS tries to give CVG 0.25" this evening.

Some areas of the country that could use a definite break from the rainfall are the Northeast and New England e.g. Horrific flooding in those regions in recent weeks with injuries and loss of life.

I'll be keeping tabs on for hopefully a dry Sat 7/29 as there will be an outside memorial service for an uncle in Ansonia just north of Greenville. Plan B for inside the church nearby that my aunt, uncle, and their daughters attended for years.

CAPE is nice right now but no shear. It is to our SW. So are the higher dews. Rainfall this evening could be favored down towards LOU, EVV and PAH areas versus Cincinnati and Dayton / Columbus. Euro shows this scenario well. Hope it's wrong of course.

SPC has everyone S of I-70 in a slight risk associated with a weak front dropping in so we'll see what happens there. We have passed our convective temp per the morning sounding since CVG is now up to 81 degrees.

Storms developing over western and central Indiana. Models want to develop this into a cluster/complex that heads our way over the next few hours. Shear is weak, so we shall see.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jul 17, 2023 4:26 pm Storms developing over western and central Indiana. Models want to develop this into a cluster/complex that heads our way over the next few hours. Shear is weak, so we shall see.

Trev, I was watching the front today and though the models were trying to push it further south it sort stalled further north and west than the models were showing. That is another reason we are seeing these storms form to the west. I believe the storms should have no problem finally pushing south and east but how strong they remain is something to watch. Nice little piece of energy in Illinois along with this so that should help in keeping the storms alive as well. Dew points had been sort of steady and starting to edge up so that will help as well.