71 currently imby with a dew of 63. Showers and t-storms (non severe) are pushing in from the West. What will the rain / cloud impacts be for this afternoon if any? There is clearing back in ILL so we should be able to get plenty of sunshine after this moves thru to heat us up for this evening's activity. I still like the 6-10pm timeframe for the Metro.
Once the sun comes out, and this line passes, the dew point will shoot up towards 70 or so and the sunshine will heat us up into the 87 to 90 degree range. We are already seeing bulk shear in excess of 40 knots and weak CAPE of 500 J/G also in ILL at this time. As far as the specifics go, we have a 10% TOR hatched risk area over our Western counties, 5% for everyone else. Large hail is a 30% hatched area in the same area of the 10% TOR risk, 15% everywhere else. 30% for wind all locations.
The boys had this to say:
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convective complex currently over Illinois and western Indiana
will continue to move east southeast toward our area through
daybreak. This is moving into a more stable airmass, so expect
to see an overall weakening trend as it approaches, but there
remains some uncertainty as to just how far east it will make it
before falling apart through mid morning. It does appear that it
will hold together into at least our western areas where will
allow for a period of chance pops for mid morning. We should
then see a diurnal lull in pcpn from late morning into early
afternoon.
As the remnant clouds dissipate, temperatures will climb into
the mid to upper 80s through this afternoon. This will combine
with dewpoints in the upper 60s to possibly lower 70s to yield
strong instability across the region. Given the strong
instability, mid level short wave energy moving out of the
western Great Lakes should lead to convective initiation from
mid to late afternoon either across our northwest or just
northwest of our area. This will be along the leading edge of
strengthening 40+ knot deep layer shear overspreading our area
and increasing low level helicities. Thus some supercells will
be possible with the initial development, with large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes all possible, especially for
areas along and west of the I-75 corridor. These initial storms
should congeal into more of a line of storms as they shift east
southeast across our area through the evening hours. While large
hail and an isolated tornado will remain possible, the primary
threat should transition into more of damaging wind event as the
line of storms moves across southeast portions of our area this
evening. Pcpn chances should taper off fairly quickly behind
this line as we head into the overnight hours.
Let's take a look now at a couple of the early morning soundings. 6Z NAM continues to look nasty while the HRRR isn't quite as bad but still need to keep our guard up and one eye open.
nam_2023062506_018_39.3--84.66.png
hrrr_2023062506_018_39.0--84.73.png
