Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 9:28 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 8:17 am Good Morning and got down to 33 this morning but frost was lets say moderate in the neighborhood. The late week and through the weekend is looking like a cool and rainy outcome. No it won't rain all the time but for the last few days of April its just plain ugly. Les I believe the warmth does come back in May and would not be surprised at all if we end up getting hot towards the end of the month and for late May hot imo is over 85 degrees.

Good morning Tim! You saw my call from last night. We'll just have to wait and see because the models will probably be too quick on some runs with getting the upper low out of here. I'd go slower personally due to the blocking pattern we're in.

Hey Les and I did read your post. I agree Les and my post mentioned getting hot towards the end of May as Mother Nature once again will need to try and balance things out. Models tend to have problems with upper lows and like you mentioned some to quick and others to slow. I do believe by late next week or weekend some ridging will move in here which really would just get us back to normal temps for early May. Then we wait and see how much rainfall we get in May and if a drier May pans out then I can see the hot weather getting in here just before Memorial Day weekend.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 10:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 9:28 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 8:17 am Good Morning and got down to 33 this morning but frost was lets say moderate in the neighborhood. The late week and through the weekend is looking like a cool and rainy outcome. No it won't rain all the time but for the last few days of April its just plain ugly. Les I believe the warmth does come back in May and would not be surprised at all if we end up getting hot towards the end of the month and for late May hot imo is over 85 degrees.

Good morning Tim! You saw my call from last night. We'll just have to wait and see because the models will probably be too quick on some runs with getting the upper low out of here. I'd go slower personally due to the blocking pattern we're in.

Hey Les and I did read your post. I agree Les and my post mentioned getting hot towards the end of May as Mother Nature once again will need to try and balance things out. Models tend to have problems with upper lows and like you mentioned some to quick and others to slow. I do believe by late next week or weekend some ridging will move in here which really would just get us back to normal temps for early May. Then we wait and see how much rainfall we get in May and if a drier May pans out then I can see the hot weather getting in here just before Memorial Day weekend.

I can buy a warmer second half of May for sure if the MJO works out as I posted last night. That would allow for the blocking pattern to leave and a -PNA to return along with severe wx chances too.

beautiful fall like spring day today. I spent the whole morning cutting up dead trees for firewood . most of it is already dry I will be able to burn it later this year already. still have another day of cutting and hauling out

Will be keeping tabs on late May as my cousin Taylor has an outdoor wedding on Sat 5/27 in Indiana.

Mid 50s for most folks at this time. Upper 50s to around 60 should cover most locations this afternoon. More sun to the south and more clouds the further north one goes from Cincy.

Partly cloudy with a small shower chance today with highs around 60 or so. Late Thurs is our next rain chance with likely POPS thurs night into Friday morning. Then... scattered chances this weekend into early next week. Mid 60s thru Sat then 50s Sun and maybe only in the U40s to near 50 Monday. A slow warming trend thereafter. Maybe 70 by Fri or Sat of next week? Maybe....

Good Morning and a low of 43 at my house. Today is not bad though still cool. The rain later Thursday and Friday will give us a nice dose with most folks in the .5-1.0. Another cool shot starting Sunday as Les mentioned then how quickly do we warm up. Again models will flip on these upper lows quite often but I believe later next week into the weekend may be the correct timing. Of course with the warm up expect some rainfall with the possible pattern change. How much is still up in the air and of course the warmer air can also get us back into a chance for some severe weather as well.

As long as it's dry for Sat May 6th I am good. We are throwing a party at my Brother's House for my parents 50th Wedding Anniv which is actually tomorrow. We are expecting between 65 and 70 people at this time. It's going to be huge!

A warmer start here in my hood as it only dropped to 40. Hoping for a change to a warmer pattern - we needed this back in Jan/Feb! With the colder pattern I really do not see any widespread severe chances anytime soon. I agree with Les and others on here about the switch being pulled sometime in the second week in May. We typically go from cold to hot in a blink of an eye!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:42 am As long as it's dry for Sat May 6th I am good. We are throwing a party at my Brother's House for my parents 50th Wedding Anniv which is actually tomorrow. We are expecting between 65 and 70 people at this time. It's going to be huge!

Wonderful post Les. 50 years is something you don't see very often in today's world. May 7th will be my 40th year married and my wife deserves some kind of metal dealing with me all these years.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:46 am A warmer start here in my hood as it only dropped to 40. Hoping for a change to a warmer pattern - we needed this back in Jan/Feb! With the colder pattern I really do not see any widespread severe chances anytime soon. I agree with Les and others on here about the switch being pulled sometime in the second week in May. We typically go from cold to hot in a blink of an eye!

That is exactly what I am expecting Mike. Your typical 50s and 60s right to 80s and 90s with little in the way of comfy 70s. My ideal temps are 70s for highs 50s for lows when it's not winter time but I am definitely living in the wrong place for that.

So, I have the local weather app set up on my work laptop and it's reporting haze and 54 degrees, I've noticed the haze all morning too. Usually in this pattern the visibility is good? Any ideas?

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 12:24 pm So, I have the local weather app set up on my work laptop and it's reporting haze and 54 degrees, I've noticed the haze all morning too. Usually in this pattern the visibility is good? Any ideas?

Only thing that makes any sense was this from the boys from the late morning AFD:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level low pressure centered over Southeast Canada with a
northwest flow pattern over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Weak
surface front over Kentucky will continue pushing southeast of
the area today. A few light rain showers/sprinkles from a mid
cloud deck developed in response to a mid/upper level jet
rotating thru the trof. This jet shifts off to the east and any
residual pcpn will continue to diminish and come to an end this
morning.

Cloud cover was chaotic this morning with mid level clouds
across the south and a band of stratus in the low level CAA
spilling in from the north. Latest visible satellite imagery
shows clouds dissipating with axis of lingering stratus along
the I-71 corridor. This decreasing trend to continue with skies
generally becoming mostly sunny this afternoon as surface high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

Cool temperatures to continue with highs 7 to 10 degrees below
normal -- ranging from the mid/upper 50s north to the mid 60s
south.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 12:29 pm

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 12:24 pm So, I have the local weather app set up on my work laptop and it's reporting haze and 54 degrees, I've noticed the haze all morning too. Usually in this pattern the visibility is good? Any ideas?

Only thing that makes any sense was this from the boys from the late morning AFD:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level low pressure centered over Southeast Canada with a
northwest flow pattern over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Weak
surface front over Kentucky will continue pushing southeast of
the area today. A few light rain showers/sprinkles from a mid
cloud deck developed in response to a mid/upper level jet
rotating thru the trof. This jet shifts off to the east and any
residual pcpn will continue to diminish and come to an end this
morning.

Cloud cover was chaotic this morning with mid level clouds
across the south and a band of stratus in the low level CAA
spilling in from the north. Latest visible satellite imagery
shows clouds dissipating with axis of lingering stratus along
the I-71 corridor. This decreasing trend to continue with skies
generally becoming mostly sunny this afternoon as surface high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes.

Cool temperatures to continue with highs 7 to 10 degrees below
normal -- ranging from the mid/upper 50s north to the mid 60s
south.

Thanks Les, I was thinking that there were some small fires going on in southern Canada where a little smoke was caught up in the NW flow, that happened about a month ago or so. Who knows!

Late April mid afternoon temps across the US. A rare site

12Z GFS looks damp and cool overall for the next 2 weeks.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 2:41 pm 12Z GFS looks damp and cool overall for the next 2 weeks.

Ugh, I also have an outside event on 5/6 down in Louisville for a tail gate derby party and the current GFS has what looks like a warm front coming through on Thursday/Friday and a cold front slides back south and hopefully clears the whole area making that Saturday dry but cool. Of course, we know the maps will look completely different before then and the timing of it all.

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 3:31 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 2:41 pm 12Z GFS looks damp and cool overall for the next 2 weeks.

Ugh, I also have an outside event on 5/6 down in Louisville for a tail gate derby party and the current GFS has what looks like a warm front coming through on Thursday/Friday and a cold front slides back south and hopefully clears the whole area making that Saturday dry but cool. Of course, we know the maps will look completely different before then and the timing of it all.

I liked earlier runs that showed high pressure and 65 to 70 instead of another front coming thru the day before on Friday. Timing is going to make me nervous for the next week. 12Z Euro shows a small shower chance as it's just starting to get into that time range now.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:42 am As long as it's dry for Sat May 6th I am good. We are throwing a party at my Brother's House for my parents 50th Wedding Anniv which is actually tomorrow. We are expecting between 65 and 70 people at this time. It's going to be huge!

HAPPY BIG GOLDEN ANNIVERSARY MR. AND MRS. RHOADS!!!!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 6:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 26, 2023 8:42 am As long as it's dry for Sat May 6th I am good. We are throwing a party at my Brother's House for my parents 50th Wedding Anniv which is actually tomorrow. We are expecting between 65 and 70 people at this time. It's going to be huge!

HAPPY BIG GOLDEN ANNIVERSARY MR. AND MRS. RHOADS!!!!

Thanks Bro!!!

Program note ~~ Tonight from 8 to 10 on NBC will be a special for a special Queen of Comedy's 90th Birthday!
"Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love"

Currently 54 here in G'ville and progged for around 34 Thurs morning.

Good Morning and today should be nice until later in the day when rainfall will increase and be with us for part of Friday. Still believe .5-1 inch looks good for most folks but again some could get a little more and that would most likely be folks to the east. Another cool shot in here early next week but models imo are starting to bring in more ridging late next week and I believe this is correct. Over the past several days models flip/flop with the trough and its hold on our weather. I believe the ridging wins out and the only thing we need to watch is when the warm air makes a big push northeast you can sometimes get a band of rain ahead of the warmth as warm moist air flows over a cooler air mass. Again way to early to say for sure this is the correct forecast but I believe the warmth wins out and could end up with nice warming period.

Saw some patchy frost on the way to work. Mostly in the usual valley areas