Absolute Vorticity

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:01 am Not an encouraging overnight model suite. EU says if you want to see snow significantly more than mood flakes in the lower 48 over the next 10 days , you better head for the mountains. Above normal temps to continue but not the record warmth we've seen so far. First 5 days our AVERAGE temp at CVG has been 50 degrees

Good Morning Bgoney and dead on so if the trend continues that we have seen for several months expect a polar shot in here by the end of the month and we will end up somewhere near average. Trends are so important and though they do end I see no reason why this will end this winter. Look at last year as a whole and near average with temps and slightly above normal in precip though we had several longer term warm spells and a min-drought in the late summer/early fall.

Cold air, cold air. Where for art tho cold air? Good morning all! It's just one suite of runs so it'll take more then that to phase me. I'm in watch and wait mode to see what happens over the next few days. For the end of next week... I'm waiting until Monday on that one at the very least. Maybe the MJO isn't going to be strong enough (the amplitude of the wave) to change anything? That is a possibility. We will have to wait and see.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 7:16 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 6:01 am Not an encouraging overnight model suite. EU says if you want to see snow significantly more than mood flakes in the lower 48 over the next 10 days , you better head for the mountains. Above normal temps to continue but not the record warmth we've seen so far. First 5 days our AVERAGE temp at CVG has been 50 degrees

Good Morning Bgoney and dead on so if the trend continues that we have seen for several months expect a polar shot in here by the end of the month and we will end up somewhere near average. Trends are so important and though they do end I see no reason why this will end this winter. Look at last year as a whole and near average with temps and slightly above normal in precip though we had several longer term warm spells and a min-drought in the late summer/early fall.

At this point I would be extremely happy to end up near normal for the month, but that would be Quite a feat from the vantage point of today. For sure there are some positives (possibly)in the pattern long term , that even if or when they happen , it's a slow change to the good

On a positive note , our heating expenses for Jan. Will be comparable to a cool march/april bill

Good thing we are just at the 6th of the month. No doubt the cold air this time in Siberia has moved west and eastern Siberia and the Baltic area is seeing some decent cold finally for them. We still have the cold in northeast Canada though and this is key for later next week in terms of how a storm may cut,aim right at us or the high is too strong and a further southeast storm forms. My biggest problem all season has not been the southeast ridge but since November it has been a south central ridge that has kept the central and southern plains almost winter free except for the period around Christmas. So no snow on the ground and you are getting this south central ridge and its even stronger because of systems that are getting near or into the west coast. That is the part that worries me the most. Does this ridge expand eastward,stay put or head west? Models will switch on this over the next 4 days or so.

Models are def in can kicking mode. They keep showing the change coming but keep delaying it in other words. So instead of the 15th kind of being a target date to a better looking pattern, It's looking like the 20th now. Not what anyone wants to see or hear but the overnight GEFS and EPS are in good agreement with this idea. The strong ridging finally expands towards Greenland and Hudson's Bay with weak ridging near or just off the West Coast. Cold air out West would slowly bleed eastward with each storm that passes thru. It looks more MJO Phase 8 like on the Ensembles by the 20th as well.

Per the Aussies, the MJO is in Phase 7 as of 1/4 and unfortunately, it maybe headed towards the circle of death. This was something we have talked about being a possibility due to the cooler waters still over the Western Pacific. I do believe the Nina is slowly weakening but the keyword here is slow because of the SOI remaining so positive. So we're going to have to thread the needle here as I've been saying and get a well timed shortwave in order to score something decent. Remember the Super Nino of 97-98? It was wet and mild all winter long until early Feb when the pattern set up as such to give us that monster wet snow storm thanks to the cut off low. Point being that you can still get a nice storm even in a bad pattern. You just need more luck then normal. 07/08... we had 6" on the season until March of 2008 as another example. There is still time! As Tim said it is only Jan 6th. The 7.2" so far at CVG is still an inch above normal to date and we still only had 0.6" on the books last year at this time. There's some positivity for you!

Next 6 days qpf. I think this is the third time in 2 weeks that these amounts have occurred or will occur. Can you ski with stilts ?

12Z OP GFS towards the end of next week brings the low into SKY / TN then it weakens and a new low forms for a big low for the Mid ATL and East Coast. This continues to be a plausible scenario if the 50/50 low is there from the early week system, and the big high we've talked about over Eastern Canada also plays a role. Of course the snow misses to the East as you would expect. If we could only speed up this process by 12 hours or so then we would see rain changing to snow. It's all rain pretty much right now on paper per this run of the GFS with a touch of snow (NE sections of AV country) at the very end. Still worth watching in my eyes anyway.

Good Afternoon and time to ride on the roller coaster. No doubt models are going to have problems with the pattern later next week. Sort of unusual and models have problems with the easier patterns. I still believe models will be too warm late next week and will be underscoring the cold attach to the high in Southeast Canada. If the trough that forms later next week is not deep then this tells me the ridging in the south central states has made a decent push but the problem is before hand there may be enough small systems coming across the country that keeps the ridging from getting out of control. A deeper trough next week brings in colder air but again does it dig so deep that the system does not form until it hits the southeast coast. My guess between today and next Tuesday we will see so many changes and all it takes is one of the tellies to show something different and boom big change in the forecast. Some patterns are very easy that even models can figure them out but the one next week is somewhat different and again homework is going to be needed

Hey Tim... towards the end of next week, seems to be the next trackable event in my mind. Probably rain to start by the looks of things. 12Z CMC is a step closer to what I'd like to see when compared to the GFS. A long ways to go of course with this particular system.

yep the winter is a stinker so far but that's still not a reason to lose hope if you want snow anyways. even in bad winters you normally get a window to open up where you can score. back in 16' we had a stinker but then had a period of arctic air move in right around mid Jan and then less then a week later we had a blizzard. the rest of that winter was pretty much a stinker just like it started. the fact that its been since 08' for your area tells me a big dawg is def on the table at some point this winter.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:32 am Hey Tim... towards the end of next week, seems to be the next trackable event in my mind. Probably rain to start by the looks of things. 12Z CMC is a step closer to what I'd like to see when compared to the GFS. A long ways to go of course with this particular system.

Hey Les and its seems very complicated at the moment. I believe a system will form and yes the CMC has the high in southeast Canada stronger and you see a colder push of air. Really want to see the Euro because this type of pattern the Euro seems to handle this better.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:32 am Hey Tim... towards the end of next week, seems to be the next trackable event in my mind. Probably rain to start by the looks of things. 12Z CMC is a step closer to what I'd like to see when compared to the GFS. A long ways to go of course with this particular system.

Hey Les and its seems very complicated at the moment. I believe a system will form and yes the CMC has the high in southeast Canada stronger and you see a colder push of air. Really want to see the Euro because this type of pattern the Euro seems to handle this better.

Definitely agree! The Euro and EPS both were the first to show this kind of solution the other day.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 11:43 am yep the winter is a stinker so far but that's still not a reason to lose hope if you want snow anyways. even in bad winters you normally get a window to open up where you can score. back in 16' we had a stinker but then had a period of arctic air move in right around mid Jan and then less then a week later we had a blizzard. the rest of that winter was pretty much a stinker just like it started. the fact that its been since 08' for your area tells me a big dawg is def on the table at some point this winter.

Thanks Charles! I'd love to see this system be a Miller A. Rain to back end deformation snows for us, then the Coastal Low gets you. We haven't had one of those systems that delivers snow to both of our areas in a very long time. We know Jan 1996 was one of those times. There's been others of course too, but it is very rare no doubt about it. In Feb of 2021, I received a localized 10" snowfall (that happened right before our old forum crashed) but a forum wide dumping like that... you're correct it was March of 2008. It's been a long, long time!

12Z GEFS Mean is much further south vs 6Z run with the low track for the end of next week system. Low goes from OK to N AR to about Memphis, TN. Then it moves NE into South Central KY where it begins to do the transfer of energy to the EC Low. Obviously it starts as rain since we have no cold air in place but it does change to snow on the backside before the EC Low completely takes over.

This shocks me as all 3 of the major models have a similar looking system next weekend. Very seldom do you see that and though they may be close to the location of the low there is still more cold available from that southeast Canada High than models are picking up on

12Z Euro for the end of next week system thus far is faster and a tad stronger with the low vs 0Z. Track so far seems to be a little more NE as well thru 150 hours. The low then moves just NE of St. Louis on the ILL side with the upper low starting to produce snow over SW MO. Surface moves towards Central IN, Central OH then NE to Lake Erie. Finally by then, we do see rain changing over to some kind of a mix (sleet maybe), then some snow showers as well. By this time, the energy transfer has taken place and the new EC Low forms much further to the north then we've seen to date. The low forms along the Delaware Coast and slowly moves off shore stalls a bit then moves back NW thru Interior New England. That was a strange run and one that most likely can be tossed.

Les look beyond the storm and how the CMC has another storm already in the central plains. I believe many changes coming up. Sure there may be a storm off the east coast storm but how the models show it shaking out looks awful strange imo

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:00 pm Les look beyond the storm and how the CMC has another storm already in the central plains. I believe many changes coming up. Sure there may be a storm off the east coast storm but how the models show it shaking out looks awful strange imo

I agree. The OP GFS valid for that same timeframe that you mentioned about the CMC, the GFS just has it coming ashore. Talk about huge differences! Then you've got the new Euro run here having that system over the Rockies. Anyway... the point here is that it is a little strange for sure, the storm evolution but it is possible. You need the 50/50 low from the early next week system to force the end of week system more SE so the new low forms for the EC. If that banana high is real (blocking high) then the storm will be slow to move if not stall out for a while because it truly has no where else to go. I think that is partly why it is looking so strange.

I mean look at the 12Z Euro from yesterday for next Fri morning vs today's 12z Euro. The 50/50 low is gone! Poof! That is one of the keys to this whole slowing down of the system and getting it going sooner rather then later. I'd say toss today's 12Z Euro in my personal opinion.

Going to be fun Les

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:14 pm Going to be fun Les

It will be! I'm looking forward to it. Over the next hour and some change, the EPS should be an interesting look-see. At this range, the Ensembles like the GEFS and EPS will be the way to go to monitor trends since the OP runs will be doing their usual wild swings for a few more days. I personally won't have much confidence in a yes or no snowfall wise for us, until probably Monday.

Some Mets are leaking the pay EPS maps (takes longer for the free ones to come out) so we won't have to wait. The 12Z EPS is following the OP Euro. Strange for an Ensemble run to shift that much. The OP's yes. But the Ensembles usually don't do that. Very strange for the GEFS to improve and the EPS not. Maybe some bad data for the Euro family today? I have no idea. I mean look at this shift from the EPS. SLP Clusters from yesterday's 12Z run to today's.

Something is wrong Les for that big of a change. I saw where the mjo shows a move towards the cod like you mentioned earlier but that should not have that big of a change in the surface maps. Lets see those maps on Tuesday and compare to what they show today.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 06, 2023 2:40 pm Something is wrong Les for that big of a change. I saw where the mjo shows a move towards the cod like you mentioned earlier but that should not have that big of a change in the surface maps. Lets see those maps on Tuesday and compare to what they show today.

I agree. The MJO won't have any impact on this system. The MJO is more for pattern recognition. Sometimes it assists with a certain pattern and at other times, it destructs a type of pattern and causes it to change. It doesn't really impact individual storm systems in my opinion. But anyway, something strange for sure with the Euro's data this afternoon.