Absolute Vorticity

A new This Week in Weather video from DT that he issued last night:

Raining for a couple of hours but only .002 so far at may house. Concerning DT and his video and at first you thought the world was ending but he was sort of back on board at the end. He is a east coast person and that is fine and much of what he is looking at is what happens along the east coast. I believe he was just to fast with the pattern change and many met's were with this pattern. With the strong -AO we are seeing cold seep south over much of the northern hemisphere so again the old maple syrup it flows slowly at first until something else happens. I want to see a neutral pna which imo is the best with the other tellies going negative. This works better for the midwest and Ohio valley. Should be fun to see the models this afternoon and does the gfs show the east coast storm late next week. If the nao going very negative is correct then an east coast storm usually forms but if some reason that is incorrect then the faster flow continue and the gfs would be correct from yesterday.

Tim... I totally agree! We need a strongly -EPO and -AO which I think we'll get. The -NAO is going to be negative but not strongly so which is another good thing. The fly in the ointment is the PNA. If it actually does rise closer to neutral, I think we'll be in great shape! The PNA I have low confidence in at this time due to obvious reasons. It is tough to get a neutral PNA, let alone a positive one in a La Nina. So if it goes neutral, consider it a huge win in my book. If it does not, then we will continue fighting the SE ridge which is typical for a Nina anyway. We'll see.... it is def an interesting battle shaping up for the second half of December. Extreme model solutions are likely esp on the Operational models over the next few weeks.

Just when you thought next.weeks storm couldn't get any slower, 12z EU comes along

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 2:15 pm Just when you thought next.weeks storm couldn't get any slower, 12z EU comes along

Yikes! Although with the upper energy passing right over us on this run... could be a snow globe effect kind of a day next Friday.

Good Afternoon and another very gloomy day though it has rained all day the amounts much lighter here and will be lucky to get 1/10 of an inch. Had to watch Brian's video and he mentioned just about everything we talk about on here. He even pointed out that a storm not showing on the models could end up being a system in here a few days after the cold air arrives. That is great when a met understands the patterns and he no doubt understands them well. He talked about record warmth in Alaska and though there has been some mild weather especially along the north shore I did not really see the warmth he has been talking about and I will need to look at that again because usually I am on top on this but may have missed this shot of warm air.

Really just the waiting game and he mentioned we need snow to the north and west so the cold air can push further south and we talk about that all the time. The one good thing about having cold air arrive in the 3rd week of December is the amount of daylight hours is at its lowest. So even without a lot of snow to the north and west you can get a nice cold shot. Saying that the cold will move away if we can't get enough systems in here 1-2 weeks after the cold arrives. At this point I like what I see in terms of systems coming across the south so hopefully we can have a few systems that give us a decent snow or two.

Les next Friday will be one of those days with some snow showers here and there and though during the day I don't see any problems with roadways but once the sun sets it really only takes a 10-15 minute decent snow shower this time of year to mess up the roads. Again we are over a week out and can look at that later next week.

Been busy working today (more then usual) so I haven't been able to post and comment as much as I'd like. Anyway... Barrow, AK had 40 degrees for a high I believe back on 12/4 and it was a heat burst. Their temp rose overnight very quickly and spiked. So no... this isn't a big EPO Ridge or anything and no state wide warmth. It was only isolated to the North Slope if I remember correctly.

I saw that afew days ago, I figured you guys already posted about it. Anyways heres a few stats from the week . Utqiagvik, Alaska (formerly Barrow) broke its December temp record by SIX degrees Monday. It was the city's highest temp in ANY month between November & March, and 36F above normal.

18Z GFS has also slowed down like the Euro for next week's pattern changing system. It makes total sense because the low is running into the big block up top so it slows down and occludes. So that means rain is likely on Wed into the day on Thurs. We'll see a break thanks to the dry slot then the wrap around moisture Friday maybe even into Saturday as well in the form of flurries and snow showers. Doubtful we see any accumulation but at night, I suppose a car topper or grassy dusting wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities. To me this idea looks really good right now.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:27 pm I saw that afew days ago, I figured you guys already posted about it. Anyways heres a few stats from the week . Utqiagvik, Alaska (formerly Barrow) broke its December temp record by SIX degrees Monday. It was the city's highest temp in ANY month between November & March, and 36F above normal.

I did see it but did not post on it. Awesome stats! Thanks for posting this. Those very wet years at Juneau, I believe those were either Nina years or you were coming out of a Nina the year before so you could call it cold enso neutral. One of the wettest years we've had in Cincinnati was 1990. The winter of 1989-1990 was a very strong Nina. Kind of funny sometimes how these things line up.

Something else of interest.... the last 4 runs of the GFS continue to strengthen the incoming arctic high behind that pattern changing system. For the period valid Sat evening at 7pm (Dec 17th).... this is what the last 4 GFS runs have had strength wise for that high.

0Z GFS - 1042 MB
6Z GFS - 1045 MB
12Z GFS - 1048 MB
18Z GFS - 1050 MB

To me this makes sense because of the tanking -EPO. Lots of changes folks that we need to continue monitoring. Going to be some fun in my opinion and a lot of stuff coming for us to track! Get ready and buckle up!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:41 pm Something else of interest.... the last 4 runs of the GFS continue to strengthen the incoming arctic high behind that pattern changing system. For the period valid Sat evening at 7pm (Dec 17th).... this is what the last 4 GFS runs have had strength wise for that high.

0Z GFS - 1042 MB
6Z GFS - 1045 MB
12Z GFS - 1048 MB
18Z GFS - 1050 MB

To me this makes sense because of the tanking -EPO. Lots of changes folks that we need to continue monitoring. Going to be some fun in my opinion and a lot of stuff coming for us to track! Get ready and buckle up!

Les we are just getting the ingredients ready and not even started making the stew. Going to some interesting model runs and the second half of the month is going to be very busy.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:32 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 5:27 pm I saw that afew days ago, I figured you guys already posted about it. Anyways heres a few stats from the week . Utqiagvik, Alaska (formerly Barrow) broke its December temp record by SIX degrees Monday. It was the city's highest temp in ANY month between November & March, and 36F above normal.

I did see it but did not post on it. Awesome stats! Thanks for posting this. Those very wet years at Juneau, I believe those were either Nina years or you were coming out of a Nina the year before so you could call it cold enso neutral. One of the wettest years we've had in Cincinnati was 1990. The winter of 1989-1990 was a very strong Nina. Kind of funny sometimes how these things line up.

I know I mentioned the northern shore and really how they had been very mild this fall. The way Brian mentioned the warmth I thought he talking about the whole state so that was my bad. It has been mild compared to normal in most of Alaska this fall but they have had some cold spells as well.

Each day you look at the tellies and everything points to a wonderful second half of the month. The NAO will be not as negative as next week,the AO will continue to be very negative, the epo very negative and the one I keep looking at is the PNA and each day we get closer to mid-month it rises toward neutral or even slightly positive. This is a great set up to get a cross polar flow but keep some storminess to the south. When the two meet is anybody's guess this far out and we can only point to a certain period and say yes that has potential.

Utqiagvik, Alaska (formerly Barrow) ~ talk about a mouthful! Barrow sure a whole lot more easier to pronounce!

Currently 41 here in G'ville.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Dec 08, 2022 6:23 pm Each day you look at the tellies and everything points to a wonderful second half of the month. The NAO will be not as negative as next week,the AO will continue to be very negative, the epo very negative and the one I keep looking at is the PNA and each day we get closer to mid-month it rises toward neutral or even slightly positive. This is a great set up to get a cross polar flow but keep some storminess to the south. When the two meet is anybody's guess this far out and we can only point to a certain period and say yes that has potential.

I really need to find the time to research snowfall for Cincinnati when you get a -PNA -EPO -AO -NAO combo in December in a La Nina or any winter month for that matter. I think the sample size is probably going to be small anyway because it is a pretty rare combination to begin with, especially in a La Nina. A +EPO and a -PNA are way more common vs the EPO going negative. Same with the blocking up top. It is more Nino like then Nina like except for the PNA which is classic Nina.

Good morning and groundhog day all over again. Another deary day with some fog and very light rain at times. The rain will be very light at best. Next system late Saturday/early Sunday is another one with light rainfall but just keep us gloomy. Monday looks like the best day with some sunshine even though early in the day it may take a few hours to clear out but temps look to be in the mid 40's. Tuesday early on we could have some sun but clouds will increase ahead of the next system. This should bring a period of rain late at night into Wednesday. At this moment going with .50-1.00. Severe weather imo is not a concern and will be well south of the area. Thursday is the day we go from autumn to winter. The day itself will be dry but cooler air moving in much of the day. Next Friday and beyond is next in line and need more time to see how the pattern plays out but no doubt we will have turned the corner.

Good morning all and let's all wish our forum owner and Fearless Leader TREV a very Happy Birthday!!!! Thank you Trev for keeping the light on and allowing us snow weenies and weather geeks a place to call home!

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:56 am Good morning all and let's all wish our forum owner and Fearless Leader TREV a very Happy Birthday!!!! Thank you Trev for keeping the light on and allowing us snow weenies and weather geeks a place to call home!

Happy Birthday Trev and thanks for everything you do with this forum. Someday we will get you to enjoy the cold lol.

Tim has us covered perfectly with his post this morning from now thru next weekend. So I will talk about the extended range. The overnight runs looked really good to me and there is a lot of potential coming up to receive wintry weather in the days leading up to Christmas. The fun starts with flurries and snow showers on the backside of the pattern changing system. The CMC ironically has been the leader for days and days now with the low running into the OV then transferring its energy to an East coast low that nails interior New England NW of the Big Cities. Typical for December and very typical due to the monster blocking pattern. GFS shows an all out blizzard for those folks and the Euro is trying to come around.

Now, once the pattern settles in I like the active STJ shoving moisture laden lows to the NE tracking along the boundary of the arctic air and the warmer air. A classic set up for major winter storm systems and a pattern we have not seen in quite sometime! Of course it's way to early to get more specific then this but make no mistake, the pattern looks good on paper and we'll just have to wait and see if things break our way.

Wow... I just checked the CPC Super Ensemble analogs for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods. For the 6-10 day, December of 1976 came up twice #1 and #3 on the list of the top 10 analogs for the period. In the 8-14 day, December of 1976 came up 3 times! Hey Tim... paging Tim...

Happy birthday Trevor. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!!

Happy Birthday Trevor. May we have the snowiest winter in history just for you. Enjoy your day and hopefully you will see some sunshine.

There is this bright object out in the sky here. Not sure what it is, but I think I should call someone and report it.