Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 9:53 am While we stay quiet, looks like another active severe weather day up in the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota region with a moderate risk there. Twin Cities were rocked last night with a massive squall line and 70+ mph winds. Sooner or later our time will come.

I am banking on the Wed / Thurs timeframe for us.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 9:58 am I am banking on the Wed / Thurs timeframe for us.

I agree with you Les! All the CIPS guidance is focusing on WED/THU as well.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 11:08 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 9:58 am I am banking on the Wed / Thurs timeframe for us.

I agree with you Les! All the CIPS guidance is focusing on WED/THU as well.

My thinking has been for a NW to SE riding MCS with a heavy rain and damaging wind threat that targets somewhere close to if not our area.

Folks... this is a Day 7/8 threat so lots of time for us to hone in on this. I don't see much of a severe threat this weekend, more of a heavy rain affair, but I guess we can throw in a CYA isolated storm type of thing as being possible. For severe weather geeks on our forum, the middle of next week time period, maybe our next thread starting event.

Today's GFS run targets the I-70 Crew Wed with bad timing for severe wx in Cincy since the front comes thru Thurs morning. Plenty of time to get the timing worked out. You know it's going to keep changing for a while.

81 with a dew of 49 at CVG... a nice Easterly breeze... A glorious afternoon in progress!

LOL @ the 12z Euro. Isolated storms Saturday, nothing Sunday, then the front comes thru on Monday so the highest chances occur later Sun night into Mon morning. For next week's item of interest, the model shows a swing and a miss to the SW on Wed, an MCS for Thurs, and even lingering chances into Fri as well. Boy, is it just me or does the Euro seem to be having more QPF and timing issues then the GFS. Not that it is perfect by any means either.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 2:47 pm LOL @ the 12z Euro. Isolated storms Saturday, nothing Sunday, then the front comes thru on Monday so the highest chances occur later Sun night into Mon morning. For next week's item of interest, the model shows a swing and a miss to the SW on Wed, an MCS for Thurs, and even lingering chances into Fri as well. Boy, is it just me or does the Euro seem to be having more QPF and timing issues then the GFS. Not that it is perfect by any means either.

Going to have to agree with the EU. Winds aloft are so weak and lift is the same for Sat/sun, best chance will be whenever the cold front passes. If anything does develop over the weekend it will be very light and scattered

18Z GFS has likely coverage Sat afternoon and evening and the best chance Sun is in the overnight / Mon morning with the cold front.

I hit 85 today but the humidity was much more tolerable.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...

Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 105 mph expected

Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible

A couple tornadoes possible

CVG 85, DAY 85 and CMH 84 today.

Good morning all and Happy Friday to you all! I'm going with scattered storms Sat afternoon and evening. Then isolated storms Sunday with the best chance the entire weekend probably late Sun night into Mon morning where the SPC has a slight risk out for us now. Still watching Wed and Thurs next week to see how the timing is going to work out on the MCS and who has the best chance of seeing it.

Good Morning Les and the forecast looks great. Some folks will get in on some storms Saturday afternoon but some folks may get missed. Concerning late Sun and Monday morning we have the front coming through and if we can get that 4a-9a time period where we are still southeast of the front we could see a period of moderate rainfall. Next Wed and Thursday the models can only do so good with these MCS systems and even getting within 24 hours they can still miss the exact location until they form during the late evening to our northwest. These systems can have very heavy rain and winds but they can also die off rather quickly after the 9am hour. I just hope to see 1-2 inches before next weekend to keep everything blooming and the grass lush.

Good morning Tim! Could use a half inch of rain here to give the lawn and new plants a nice drink. An inch plus between both system over the next week would be wonderful. Rarely do we get what we want in weather. So we'll get 3" or get nothing as The Dome is back in place.

For now... Wed is looking better for the I-70 Crew next week and the bad timing for us theme down here continues to show up with Thurs morning being the better chance for us down here. GFS likes this idea. Euro still is a swing and a miss to the SW Wed, for us Thurs morning and I-70 may not get much of anything. So both models have completely different storm set up's and evolutionary ideas.

BG Storm Talk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/13/stormtalk-513/

12Z Euro looks the idea of scattered Sat afternoon and evening and then not much, if anything until Sun night after midnight into Mon morning. Again, this period is now looking like the highest chance for storms, strong to severe also, area wide in the short term.

Euro is still a swing and a miss Wed to the SW but we get 2 rounds Thurs, very early and again midday to early afternoon with a slower frontal passage.

84 here today. Thinking low 80s Sat but might get warmer Sun since the action isn't due in until the overnight period.

Still don't think we see much precip this weekend other than some light hit/miss showers for cvgland. Weak shear/lift for our hood. Not impressed with early morning Monday cold front passage for appreciable rains either

CVG 83, DAY 84 and CMH 83 today.

A couple of isolated cells this morning otherwise, late this afternoon and evening, I am going with about 50% coverage. Then for folks who see rain, not everyone will, look for fog Sun morning. Then the best chance for everyone is still late Sun night / early Mon morning. I still believe that this is our best chance area wide. SPC has a marginal risk for today and a slight risk for Sun night.

Tues looks great! Then we'll see how the timing works out for storms Wed and Thurs.

I’m still confused as to why SPC is going slight for tomorrow night.

Trevor wrote: ↑Sat May 14, 2022 8:57 am I’m still confused as to why SPC is going slight for tomorrow night.

For the same reason the 6Z GFS has a hurricane into NOLA then the leftovers for the OV Memorial Day Weekend?

In all seriousness, their discussion answers that very question for those who are wondering. We are going to get the leftovers due to poor frontal timing. Here is their discussion for our area:

Storms should continue through the evening, especially across western portions of the outlook area, while gradually decreasing through late evening and into the overnight hours across the Ohio Valley area.