Absolute Vorticity

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:31 am BG Storm talk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/17/stormt ... pdate-317/

That wasn't the most inspiring long-term outlook from BG. Hopefully we'll get a more seasonal look in the coming days.

Last I saw, some of the longer term climate models were going with a near normal April then a colder then normal May and June. Above normal rain thru the period. La Nina lingers thru the summer and weakens in the late summer or early autumn.

Some interesting developments on the GFS today and GEFS... this is for March 23-24th or next week's system. A cold high to the north and some blocking with a nicely positioned +PNA ridge along the west coast of North America. Then we get a bowling ball type system at 500 MB or a closed low rolling across the S US. Can enough moisture and cold get together for a cold rain or even some wintry precip as in snow? OP GFS swings the low NE out of TX and OK thru the TN Valley then the low stalls and pivots up the Apps. GEFS is stronger and further north so a cold heavy rain as the low comes at us. This is much further south then the more warm and severe t-storm looking Euro solutions we are seeing. So we've got a real model battle unfolding here for next week. Are we tracking a kitchen sink system or severe wx?

CMC tracks the low over us as well then weakens it as the energy gets transferred to an ocean low that heads out to sea. UKIE supports past Euro solutions of a cutter west of Chicago. We'll see... this system might be our next thread starter for some type of weather.

72 here currently! What an outstanding afternoon out there! Expecting around a third of an inch overall with our next system unless a strong storm or two occurs then local amounts up to 1" are possible. Showers linger thru much of Sat into Sat night and should pull out very early Sun with decreasing clouds. U40s to L50s for highs Sat and we hope 60 by Sunday. Will depend on how long it takes for the clouds to depart. A nice Monday and things begin to change by Tues with clouds and possible showers depending on how much that bowling ball system gets here. Tues - Thurs time frame next week looks prime for either heavy rain / strong storms or a mixed bag of precip depending on how the H5 set up pans out.

72 as of 4pm at CVG. I hit 73 at 1:03 this afternoon, 72 now. Good check up from my Eye Dr. See ya next year. Up next week, a teeth cleaning at the dentist. That's always a pleasure.

A rainy Wed to go with the appointment is probably going to be the forecast.

12Z Euro has over a half inch of rain from tomorrow thru early Sun morning at CVG. Then a cutter next week still showing up with the strong T-storm risk and hvy rain. So the Euro, EPS, UKIE, are going with a cutter.... GEFS and CMC have the low over us and OP GFS has a mixed bag of precip. thru the TN Valley.

Place your bets!

Happy St Patrick's Day and Erin go bragh!

Currently 70 here in Greenville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:40 pm

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:31 am BG Storm talk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/17/stormt ... pdate-317/

That wasn't the most inspiring long-term outlook from BG. Hopefully we'll get a more seasonal look in the coming days.

Last I saw, some of the longer term climate models were going with a near normal April then a colder then normal May and June. Above normal rain thru the period. La Nina lingers thru the summer and weakens in the late summer or early autumn.

Nothing like a colder than normal May and June i.e.

I remember a cookout with my folks and some friends on Memorial Day in NC one year in the 1990s that was chilly.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 7:46 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:40 pm

westharrisonwx wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 11:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 8:31 am BG Storm talk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/03/17/stormt ... pdate-317/

That wasn't the most inspiring long-term outlook from BG. Hopefully we'll get a more seasonal look in the coming days.

Last I saw, some of the longer term climate models were going with a near normal April then a colder then normal May and June. Above normal rain thru the period. La Nina lingers thru the summer and weakens in the late summer or early autumn.

Nothing like a colder than normal May and June i.e.

I remember a cookout with my folks and some friends on Memorial Day in NC one year in the 1990s that was chilly.

I wouldn't put much stock into yet unless the current drought plains and wet OV / TN Valley pattern holds for the next 2 months. If it does, then yep, I would accept that solution.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:55 pm Some interesting developments on the GFS today and GEFS... this is for March 23-24th or next week's system. A cold high to the north and some blocking with a nicely positioned +PNA ridge along the west coast of North America. Then we get a bowling ball type system at 500 MB or a closed low rolling across the S US. Can enough moisture and cold get together for a cold rain or even some wintry precip as in snow? OP GFS swings the low NE out of TX and OK thru the TN Valley then the low stalls and pivots up the Apps. GEFS is stronger and further north so a cold heavy rain as the low comes at us. This is much further south then the more warm and severe t-storm looking Euro solutions we are seeing. So we've got a real model battle unfolding here for next week. Are we tracking a kitchen sink system or severe wx?

CMC tracks the low over us as well then weakens it as the energy gets transferred to an ocean low that heads out to sea. UKIE supports past Euro solutions of a cutter west of Chicago. We'll see... this system might be our next thread starter for some type of weather.

I dont think we see anything next week but the last week of the month maybe, my long range is showing much colder temps the last week and maybe into early April.

I like Les's qpf range for today/tomorrow, up to and around .30" for most with the exception of a rogue t-storm with higher amounts. Severe threat remains low for late evening but not zero kind of deals, i don't think it's enough to wake Trev up from his slumber. Biggest hindrance is dewpoints won't be making a big surge into our area , only making it into the mid 50s range.

Good morning everyone and I think that if anything does get severe it'll be after dark. I agree with Bgoney that it will be isolated if we do see anything at all. This is looking like the usual weakening line as it moves in kind of deals for us since we won't have good instability to work with as mentioned. Sat stinks since it's drizzle / light rain all day with light amounts and Sunday will be a drying out kind of day so for outdoor projects, the weekend isn't great. Not a write off but not ideal/ Then we get wet in the Tues - Thurs period next week. Low track and model QPF differences still there this early.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 9:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 12:55 pm Some interesting developments on the GFS today and GEFS... this is for March 23-24th or next week's system. A cold high to the north and some blocking with a nicely positioned +PNA ridge along the west coast of North America. Then we get a bowling ball type system at 500 MB or a closed low rolling across the S US. Can enough moisture and cold get together for a cold rain or even some wintry precip as in snow? OP GFS swings the low NE out of TX and OK thru the TN Valley then the low stalls and pivots up the Apps. GEFS is stronger and further north so a cold heavy rain as the low comes at us. This is much further south then the more warm and severe t-storm looking Euro solutions we are seeing. So we've got a real model battle unfolding here for next week. Are we tracking a kitchen sink system or severe wx?

CMC tracks the low over us as well then weakens it as the energy gets transferred to an ocean low that heads out to sea. UKIE supports past Euro solutions of a cutter west of Chicago. We'll see... this system might be our next thread starter for some type of weather.

I dont think we see anything next week but the last week of the month maybe, my long range is showing much colder temps the last week and maybe into early April.

6Z GFS has a fantasy snow event for us on 3/31

No rain to speak of attm, but the think canopy of clouds will not be good for CAPE. Dews are only at 50 at CVG right now too so that isn't very good either for CAPE. All in all keeping this low keyed is correct. Seeing some sun over West KY, West TN area but nothing close to us at this time.

Snow removal attachments were put to bed this week and all equipment is ready for the spring growing season.

Light rain has finally begun here. It won't last long not more then 30-60 mins. This is the warm front coming thru now. We have a few sun breaks over Western and West Central KY. Low is over STL with a line of showers and t-storms over Southern ILL ahead of the front.

66 here today. 0.04" so far. Current temp is at 60.

2233 60 1 NW SYMSONIA GRAVES KY 3692 8852 (PAH)

2241 70 1 SSE GILBERTSVILLE MARSHALL KY 3701 8830 (PAH)

2248 125 GILBERTSVILLE MARSHALL KY 3702 8830 (PAH)

2255 100 GRAND RIVERS LIVINGSTON KY 3700 8823 (PAH)

0008 UNK 3 N BECKS MILL WASHINGTON IN 3858 8616 TREE DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LMK)

0009 UNK 2 WSW SALEM WASHINGTON IN 3859 8614 TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LMK)

0010 UNK SALEM WASHINGTON IN 3861 8611 POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LMK)

0010 UNK 2 WSW SALEM WASHINGTON IN 3864 8598 CORRECTS LOCATION OF PREVIOUS TSTM WND DMG REPORT FROM 1 NW NEW PHILADELPHIA. FEW TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LMK)

0013 UNK 1 NW NEW PHILADELPHIA WASHINGTON IN 3864 8598 FEW TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (LMK)

0240 UNK 4 SSW RINEYVILLE HARDIN KY 3771 8600 SIGNIFICANT ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOME ON SPEARS LANE JUST OFF ST. JOHN RD. (LMK)

0243 UNK 2 E GARFIELD BRECKINRIDGE KY 3778 8632 VIA NWS CHAT ... TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN IN THORNHILL ESTATES AND DAMAGE REPORTS FROM FIREFIGHTERS OF DAMAGE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD. (LMK)

0250 UNK 4 NNW ELIZABETHTOWN HARDIN KY 3775 8590 LARGE NUMBER OF POWER POLES BROKEN ALONG SOUTH WILSON ROAD BETWEEN W.A. JENKINS ROAD AND HUTCHERSON LANE. POWER COMPANY PROVIDED PICTURES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. (LMK)

0258 UNK 2 WNW COLESBURG HARDIN KY 3779 8582 POWER POLES AND WIRES DOWN ALONG WOOLDRIDGE FERRY ROAD BETWEEN KY 434 AND KY 313. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. (LMK)

0324 68 4 NW OKOLONA JEFFERSON KY 3818 8574 KSDF ASOS MEASURED 68 MPH WIND GUST ... (LMK)

0332 UNK 1 SSE SAINT MATTHEWS JEFFERSON KY 3824 8564 LARGE TREE DOWN ON POWER LINES VIA SOCIAL MEDIA AROUND BROWN PARK OFF BROWNS LANE AND KRESGE WAY. (LMK)

0336 58 2 SW SAINT MATTHEWS JEFFERSON KY 3823 8566 KLOU ASOS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 58 MPH. (LMK)

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0.26" event total at CVG so far. For my hood, the same 0.25" We will fall into the 40s today with on and off light rain showers from time to time. It will remain on the breezy side as well. Clouds to start with some sunshine building in for your Sunday. We'll start the day off in the 30s and get close to 60 in the afternoon.

70+ on Monday my pick day of the week with on and off rain for Tues - Thurs. Temps will drop towards the 40s and L50s by Fri and going into next weekend. Expecting 1-2" rainfall amounts with this system. Trends by that time towards the end of the month points towards below avg temps to end March and begin April. TBD if any snow falls or not.

Trace totals here, fine by me

The third of an inch call was golden around these parts. Anything else we get from here on out should be spotty and light at best.

Around nine tenths of an inch at CVG for next week's system per the 12Z GFS.

The Euro has 1.84" at CVG.

My high for the day was 60 at midnight. 42 currently. Should drop down into the U30s by morning with some light drizzly rain overnight. Kind of crappy outside too with the W breeze and damp conditions. Tomorrow morning chilly, tomorrow afternoon nice. Monday awesome then we get a prolonged period of dampness then turn colder.

Combo .80" in my gauge from late Fri afternoon through early tonight.

Currently 37 which is just 1 degree above shy of the progged low for Sun morning.

Then near 60 for Sun afternoon.

Happy First Day of Spring everyone! I had a low of 35 this morning. A gorgeous afternoon today as well as Monday before we turn wet for the rest of the work week.