Absolute Vorticity

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:35 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:33 am Big sleet fest for CVG and big ice SE Crew 12Z Canadian... yikes...

Oh wow that is a hell of a lot of sleet!

Shades of last year... No thank you!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:33 am Big sleet fest for CVG and big ice SE Crew 12Z Canadian... yikes...

It seems as if the trend is clear. This is a major winter storm for all of AV land. The only question is the type of precip that will fall.

Areas like Bowling Green and Mayfield, KY i.e. and now this.

I don't care for the canadian.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:37 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:33 am Big sleet fest for CVG and big ice SE Crew 12Z Canadian... yikes...

It seems as if the trend is clear. This is a major winter storm for all of AV land. The only question is the type of precip that will fall.

Yeah I noted my expectation for south and colder trends earlier and it seems like 12z is playing ball thus far.

Tons of info to look over and not yet paying to much attention to the shorter term models because not really in the best time zone for them. I still believe the second low is so key to the forecast in many ways. First if it gets stronger than forecast we get more rainfall and a slower changeover to frozen plus if its stronger the chances for a sleet fest increases. Saying that if its not as strong then colder air can move further south and east which increases the chances for frozen precip with would be frz/rain followed by snow and maybe a period of sleet but with a weaker system I believe the other 2 forms of frozen precip is more likely. Lets see the Euro today because what it did yesterday was sort like the nam with warmer thermals up above but may be having a harder time with the colder dense air coming underneath. The Euro today is big and if it either shifts the system further south or has it weaker of figures out temps at different heights will be key. It may stay the same but even though it moved yesterday it was not one of those moves you see sometimes that takes you out of the winter weather portion.

The UKMET is keeping the colder theme. It buries AV land with heavy snow!

Weather gods/goddesses- please give us snow not sleet or cold rain!!!!!

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:36 am We do get a couple of inches of snow at the tail end.

We had that happen with last February when at first it looked like a 8-11 inch snow storm and then it turned out to be a sleet fest with a couple of inches of snow!

12z GFS ENS

Not gonna get excited
Not gonna get excited
Not gonna get excited
Not gonna get excited
Not gonna get excited

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:46 am The UKMET is keeping the colder theme. It buries AV land with heavy snow!

E-GADS!

WU currently has 14" for my area on Thurs. I'm taking that with a grain of salt since its via WU.

GEFs look ripe for southern(colder) trend to continue

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 11:54 am 12z GFS ENS


gfs-ensemble-all-avg-ecentus-snow_total_multimember_panel-4040800.png

Quite a few of those bury CVG with snow too. Damn!

I wish I knew the bias of each ensemble member which probably would help as well.

Guess I need to get my shovel ready, eh?

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:00 pm Guess I need to get my shovel ready, eh?

Mike,

You may have to change your sig to KING MIDAS and his WHITE GOLD touch, bro!!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:01 pm GEFS Mean Snow.png

Having the ensembles continue to shift south adds more confidence for sure.

Welcome to all new members! Looks like we've got a major winter storm to cover in a couple more days guys! Mainly rain for Wed but Wed night thru the day on Friday looking more and more interesting by the hour. Euro coming up soon! If it goes south then wow!

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:11 pm Welcome to all new members! Looks like we've got a major winter storm to cover in a couple more days guys! Mainly rain for Wed but Wed night thru the day on Friday looking more and more interesting by the hour. Euro coming up soon! If it goes south then wow!

Not a new member but I had to switch email providers and lost access to reset my old password.....DrDestructo here! Hope everyone is well!

chrisdeweese73 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:13 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:11 pm Welcome to all new members! Looks like we've got a major winter storm to cover in a couple more days guys! Mainly rain for Wed but Wed night thru the day on Friday looking more and more interesting by the hour. Euro coming up soon! If it goes south then wow!

Not a new member but I had to switch email providers and lost access to reset my old password.....DrDestructo here! Hope everyone is well!

Ahhh! long time, no see Doc!! Hope you're ready to potentially make some coin finally! you should be on a nice spot per latest trends.

I also like the trend on a lot of the guidance now of that "tail" of snow if you will progged to come right thru the Metro area on Friday to keep the snow going adding on a few more inches. If correct of course. Wanna see if the Euro is going to show that or not coming up.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Jan 31, 2022 12:08 pm Mike,

You may have to change your sig to KING MIDAS and his WHITE GOLD touch, bro!!

Ha Ha - I need to save the Dome one for summer-time.