Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:51 pm 12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.

The EURO has had that clipper system for days and wonder if it keeps the energy back for that system.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:35 pm Hey Les I went with the higher precip totals but not because of the gfs. I just thought with a nice southerly flow and a decent cold front we could see that .25 inches of rainfall.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:26 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:35 pm Hey Les I went with the higher precip totals but not because of the gfs. I just thought with a nice southerly flow and a decent cold front we could see that .25 inches of rainfall.

Of course! I knew your reasoning. What I should have said was that the GFS supported your call so that was my mistake.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:26 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:35 pm Hey Les I went with the higher precip totals but not because of the gfs. I just thought with a nice southerly flow and a decent cold front we could see that .25 inches of rainfall.

Of course! I knew your reasoning. What I should have said was that the GFS supported your call so that was my mistake.

Hey Les has the CMC made a score this season. Usually it will get one or two correct that the other two miss. I believe the CMC has not scored this season but I may have missed one earlier in the season.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:08 pm I agree Les that the gfs has done the best this season. Several things in the extended and the NWS really has us warming up next week and even more so the week after. I agree about the upcoming week ahead of the nice storm system but after that its a battle. Gfs has the mjo going quickly into 3 and then 4 which is a warmer phase. So far this season that has not been what is happening with the mjo and it stays put in a certain phase longer than models show. The AO being strong is a concern of course and models are trying to show the pna go somewhat negative and that combo is not good if you want cold air. So I agree with the milder air mid-week but after that I am going to sit and wait on the warmth to continue.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:12 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:08 pm I agree Les that the gfs has done the best this season. Several things in the extended and the NWS really has us warming up next week and even more so the week after. I agree about the upcoming week ahead of the nice storm system but after that its a battle. Gfs has the mjo going quickly into 3 and then 4 which is a warmer phase. So far this season that has not been what is happening with the mjo and it stays put in a certain phase longer than models show. The AO being strong is a concern of course and models are trying to show the pna go somewhat negative and that combo is not good if you want cold air. So I agree with the milder air mid-week but after that I am going to sit and wait on the warmth to continue.

If we stay in Phase 3, we won't torch. Phase 4, then break out the flip flops lol

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:37 pm My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.

Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:37 pm My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.

Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.

I think a nice warm period is in the cards starting sometime during the last week in FEB into March , whether that last 1 , 2 , or 3 weeks IDK. But definitely see A flare up of the SE ridge in response to the MJO

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:37 pm My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.

Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:29 pm Not sure about that MJO plot , it doesn't even match up to where it's been the last few weeks



Screenshot_20220209-172411_Drive.jpg

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 5:35 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:37 pm My thought process is up's and down's like what we've been seeing. You need a well timed shortwave for snow and that's that. As long as the big ridge in the NE Pacific stays tucked in close to the West Coast, you will not get very warm. A couple of days here or there but nothing sustainable. A trough will continue to drop in to beat the SE ridge down. This is exactly what has happened when models broke down the cold pattern too early. I can think of 1 if not 2 occasions where this has already happened this winter. If the right retrogrades to the west then we'll get the -PNA and warmth to be more sustainable. Same thing if MJO goes into phases 4, 5 or 6.

Currently, our pattern remains the same in my opinion for the rest of Feb and probably into early March too before spring finally arrives for good. We will have warm days between now and then, but cold shots and snow chances are going to be there too. I think we've got a solid month to go before us snow weenies go back to bed until November or December.

So bro, this coming Redlegs Opening Day in late March may actually feel, hopefully, like baseball weather for a change.

Currently 41 here in G'ville.