January 15-17, 2022 Winter Storm Discussion

[tpweather]

Mainly good news from the overnight models....

CVG QPF

6Z NAM - 0.29" Sunday
0.03" Mon Trailing Wave

0Z GFS - 0.17" Sunday
0.04" - Trailing Wave

6Z GFS backed off again on both, just get clipped.

0Z Euro - 0.26" Sunday
0.03" Trailing Wave

6Z Run: Will be out soon

Good Morning Les and missed all the action last night so plenty to catch up on

[tron777]

SPC meso page has our low at 1008 MB over SW ARK. MD has been issued for hvy snow in MO this morning as the storm continues to drop south.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0068.html

The thing to watch for today is when does the drop stop as the energy rounds the base of the trough and begins to strength and head north for tomorrow. The upper low or 500 MB low, which really needs to be watched is along the Eastern OK /. KS boarder at this time.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and missed all the action last night so plenty to catch up on

Good morning Tim! Waiting on the 6Z Euro which is running now... get your coffee poured!

[tron777]

6Z Euro is good... 0.27" for Sunday at CVG so right in line with the 0Z run.

[tpweather]

6Z Euro is good... 0.27" for Sunday at CVG so right in line with the 0Z run.

Les I have been leaning on the Euro since Tuesday and model has not changed much. Going to fun to see the noon models and then more or a nowcast. I thought yesterday afternoon that some light snow may get in here this morning. Never expecting much but that snow ended further northeast than models were showing. I just thought yesterday that the system itself was a tad further east at least with the percip than models showed. Going to need several cups of coffee and I will be gone from about 8a-11 but will be back in my weather office lol.

[tron777]

I'll be in and out... starting a bathroom remodeling project but will keep an eye on the weather too from time to time. No flurries here attm. Although some guidance tries to give CVG a couple hundredths of QPF this morning (noticed it last night) including the Euro so we'll see if the snow can hang on to the west before it peters out completely.

[kywthrluvr]

Good morning! Any ideas about timing of this tomorrow. My daughter will be driving back here from Lexington and I wanted to give her a heads up.

[tpweather]

Not much snow this morning and I agree. Heck yesterday morning when I was driving snow flurries were flying so models have a hard time picking up on that item yesterday. To me the gfs is faster and the euro is slower and lets see who wins. The high pressure to the north will slide over to the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday and does this weaken or remain rather strong. We need that high to remain strong so the low pressure is further west as it head north. Again no matter what happens its just going to be a close call for us locally. I do believe the one trend I have seen over the past 24 hours is warmer air up above and this can have precip types becoming a problem for some folks in the winter storm watch area's. Time will tell but at least something to follow and then by late in the week and next weekend cold air will be around and lets see if models pick up on any energy and my guess it will once this system is gone.

[tron777]

CB's NEW updated call:

CBNewCall.png

[tron777]

Good morning! Any ideas about timing of this tomorrow. My daughter will be driving back here from Lexington and I wanted to give her a heads up.

Good morning Leslie! I think the snow will start down there late morning to midday so you'd probably want her to leave as early as possible to stay ahead of it. More of an afternoon and evening event here locally.

[tron777]

Not much snow this morning and I agree. Heck yesterday morning when I was driving snow flurries were flying so models have a hard time picking up on that item yesterday. To me the gfs is faster and the euro is slower and lets see who wins. The high pressure to the north will slide over to the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday and does this weaken or remain rather strong. We need that high to remain strong so the low pressure is further west as it head north. Again no matter what happens its just going to be a close call for us locally. I do believe the one trend I have seen over the past 24 hours is warmer air up above and this can have precip types becoming a problem for some folks in the winter storm watch area's. Time will tell but at least something to follow and then by late in the week and next weekend cold air will be around and lets see if models pick up on any energy and my guess it will once this system is gone.

Slower is going to be better as we've talked about. That means the low is going to be stronger and hold on longer when doing the transfer. The stronger the low gets, the slower it is and the longer the energy transfer takes place... the more snow we get if all of the above conditions are met. If any one of those conditions are not met, the less snow we get.

[kywthrluvr]

Good morning! Any ideas about timing of this tomorrow. My daughter will be driving back here from Lexington and I wanted to give her a heads up.

Good morning Leslie! I think the snow will start down there late morning to midday so you'd probably want her to leave as early as possible to stay ahead of it. More of an afternoon and evening event here locally.

Thanks so much! Looking forward to tracking the storm with AV friends!

[tron777]

A few observations this morning when looking at models and SPC Meso Page. Don't know what impact this will have on the outcome, but just wanted to post some things I've noticed.

1) The high in Canada north of the Great Lakes, was modeled as a 1042-1045 MB high on guidance depending on what you look at. I am only seeing the high in real time of being 1038 to 1040 MB so it's a little weaker. Maybe it's not pressing down on the storm as much?

2) The shortwave itself is about an hour behind position wise where short term mesoscale models have it. So this storm is a tad slower attm then guidance.

3) SPC has an isolated risk out for severe t-storms along the Gulf Coast like FL Panhandle area for example. That leads me to believe that this will be a strong system.


Just trying to keep an eye on the big picture and watching things as they develop.

[tron777]

Well... how about that! I can report a few flakes on the windshield of the car out side. That's round 1 for my hood.

[tron777]

26 and light snow at CVG being reported. 5 mile vis. 25 imby.

[Bgoney]

No changes for me from overnight, basically no changes from models, EU vs GFS/ GEFs, with what is in the end, a 10 to 20 mile shift of qpf further west. Also surface temps above freezing a time when qpf starts and the placement of upper level low and the push it produces in the westward advance of qpf, all factors in snow amounts. ILN added our Se counties to watch status amounts but already had that in our forecasts, so they are catching up. NAM has struggled mightily last 12 hours to fight its way out of a paper bag. 12z suite will finalize things for me if changes need to be made , after that it's real-time observations and watching this bad boy unfold

[tron777]

New SREF plumes are in and those ridiculous weenie members finally got thrown out. This is a little more realistic. I'll post the mean below for the 9Z run.

CVG - 2.2"
HAO - 2.2"
MGY - 2"
ILN - 3"
DAY - 1.8"
CMH - 3.2"

[Spacejunk]

Some flurries in Oxford

[sbpstudios]

VERY light flurries here in the Eastgate/Batavia areas.

[Trevor]

12z NAM says no.

[Trevor]

12z NAM Snowfall (Kuchera)

[tron777]

The model back n forth continues. The old windshield wiper effect. Probably just best to nowcast it at this point.

EDIT: NAM transfer the energy to the East Coast low earlier. That's the issue. We need it to be a slow process.

[tron777]

The 12Z NAM does hammer Columbus though wow.

MON 1A 17-JAN -2.9 -2.8 998 94 94 0.54 534 536
MON 7A 17-JAN -4.6 -8.0 999 81 75 0.10 527 527
MON 1P 17-JAN -1.4 -11.0 1003 80 84 0.01 528 525
MON 7P 17-JAN -2.8 -12.2 1010 84 24 0.01 534 525

[tron777]

FGX - Probably some sleet in there too.

SUN 1P 16-JAN -0.3 -0.9 1011 73 94 0.01 549 540
SUN 7P 16-JAN -0.6 -0.5 1004 97 92 0.41 543 540
MON 1A 17-JAN -1.5 -3.1 1000 94 92 0.50 536 536
MON 7A 17-JAN -4.1 -10.1 1004 83 97 0.02 527 524
MON 1P 17-JAN -1.8 -11.1 1008 83 67 0.06 531 525

[tron777]

You can clearly see the upper low drooping south over Oklahoma.

UpperLow.jpg