Absolute Vorticity

4 named storms now over the East Pac:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 106.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

4 named storms now over the East Pac:

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Fabio Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062024
800 AM MST Mon Aug 05 2024

...TROPICAL STORM FABIO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 106.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Carlotta and Daniel are now post tropical. Emilia and Fabio are both weak TS's with winds of 50 mph. None of these pose any threat to land.

Emilia and Fabio have winds of 65 and 50 mph respectively. Fabio will be gone by tomorrow afternoon and Emilia by this weekend.

Only one left on the board right now...

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Emilia Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...EMILIA ABSORBING FABIO BUT ALSO WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 119.9W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES

We can take Emilia off the board now. Next wave off the CA Coast has a 30% chance to develop in the next 5 days.

We have a wave way out there in the East Pac, almost ready toc ross over into the Central Pac.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Wed Aug 14 2024

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A broad area of low pressure will likely form during the next couple
of days well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and
a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week
while the system moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

The Central Pacific wave has been downgraded to 50%. However, a new wave off the Mexican Coast now has an 80% chance in the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

We have 3 waves to keep an eye on. The first one closest to the Coast has an 80% chance in the next 5 days. To the west of there, that wave has a 70% chance. The front runner only has a 20% chance.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Out of the 3 tropical waves that are on the board, the one that has the best chance of development is the one closest to the Mexican Coast. It has a 90% chance now in the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024
800 PM MST Sun Aug 18 2024

...GILMA HEADING WESTWARD AND HOLDING STEADY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 113.5W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024
800 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

...GILMA HEADING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 117.3W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

We also have a wave in the Central Pacific that has an 80% chance to develop.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

...GILMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT OR TOMORROW
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 121.5W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

The wave to the West of Gilma, has a 60% chance with the wave over the Central Pacific still holding at a 90% chance. That one may impact Hawaii in the coming days should it develop further.

Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024
800 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

...GILMA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 123.8W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES

Still watching the waves East and West of Gilma for further development.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024
500 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024

...GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO FRIDAY BUT MORE
WEAKENING LIES AHEAD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 125.5W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1945 MI...3125 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES

TS Hone is out there in the Central Pacific and may brush Hawaii.

Tropical Storm Hone Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024
800 PM HST Thu Aug 22 2024

...HONE CONTINUES WESTWARD WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 144.1W
ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 980 MI...1575 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

The wave closest to the Mexican Coast is our next one to develop.

Gilma has winds of 100 mph. TS Hone has winds of 50 mph expected to become a hurricane and brush the S side of the Big Island of Hawaii.

Hurricane Gilma Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024
1100 PM HST Sat Aug 24 2024

...GILMA'S BRIEF RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS LEVELED OFF...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 132.5W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


Hurricane Hone Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024
305 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024

...HURRICANE HONE SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND...

The center of Hurricane Hone is being tracked by the South
Hawaii WSR-88D radar as it continues tracking westward, passing
just south of South Point on the Big Island. At 2 am HST this
morning, Hurricane Hone reached its closest point of approach
to the Big Island passing 50 miles due south of South Point,
Hawaii.

SUMMARY OF 300 AM HST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 155.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

Gilma is starting her weakening phase with winds down to 105 mph. We now have TS Hector with winds of 45 mph moving to the west. This one so far is expected to remain a TS and not bother anybody. In the Central Pacific, we still have Hone with winds of 75 mph.


...HONE WEAKENING BUT STILL A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE BIG ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 158.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM SSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES

Gilma has winds of 110 mph and Hector has winds of 50 mph/ Hone in the Central Pacific continues to move away from Hawaii with winds of 60 mph.

Hector has winds of 50 mph. Gilma is now in the CPAC with winds of 52 mph. This one will impact Hawaii as a TD. Hone has winds of 52 mph and is now well west of Hawaii.

Hone, Gilma, and Hector are all TS's in the CPAC. Gilma will be the next one to impact Hawaii tonight thru Sat.

The East Pac is quieting down finally. Gilma is about gone now as it approaches Hawaii, just a remnant low now. Hone is now a depression with winds of 35 mph and that one is about ready to say good bye as well.

There is a wave near the Mexican Coast that has a 60% chance over the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2

The Mexican Coast wave now has an 80% chance to develop.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=2