Absolute Vorticity

TD 10 is moving N and not expected to bother anyone. Should get a name shortly.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.s ... t#contents

TD 11 is now TS Julian winds of 50 mph moving to the NE. This one is also not expected to impact land.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.s ... t#contents

The next African Wave looks to have an 80% chance to develop over the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

TD 10 is still out there and still expected to get a name this week. Still expected to be a fish storm.

The next African Wave continues to look healthy and a medium to high chance for further development.

TD 10 is now TS Kate. Again, this one is moving N and will remain a fish storm.

Tropical Storm Kate Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 30 2021

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM KATE...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 50.9W
ABOUT 770 MI...1245 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

TS Kate moving N with winds of 40 mph. The African Wave is almost ready to rock and roll.

Kate is weakening and down to a depression. In the next day or two, we can kiss her good-bye. Still watching the African Wave as our next potential trouble maker. NHC is expecting a TD in the next day or two.

The Wave off the African coast has been upgraded to TD 12.

TD 12 is expected to get a name pretty quickly. A hurricane also looks to occur with this system by very early Fri morning (per the NHC's intensity guidance). Looking out in time... a few models show a more westward track, but the bulk of the guidance has it going WNW then eventually more North so a fish storm basically. It's early in the game for TD 12 so I don't want to jump into any conclusions yet.

TS Larry is now born in the far Eastern Atlantic with winds of 45 mph. Larry is expected to become a major cane by late this weekend.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.s ... t#contents

The last update from the NHC on TS Larry had winds of 50 mph. On satellite, you can now see an eye so I would expect a hurricane on the NHC's next update later this afternoon.

We've also got to watch this sneaky tropical wave in the SW Caribbean. If it can survive the trek across the Yuc. Penn. and get into the SW Gulf down the road, then we may have something to talk about there also. Currently, the NHC is giving it a 30% chance over the next 5 days.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

Larry has winds of 70 mph this evening. I was thinking a cane per my last post, but they've stuck with a strong TS. That's fine. Whatever.

Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Thu Sep 02 2021

...LARRY BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 32.3W
ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

Here we go... Larry's up to 90 now this morning with continued strengthening expected.

Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

...LARRY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...
...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES
FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 38.9W
ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1530 MI...2460 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

A couple of the tropical models actually strengthen Larry to Cat 5 briefly. Looks like Bermuda will be a very close call - would be a bit nervous if I were there.

Larry still has winds of 90 mph as of the 11am update. Updated intensity forecast from the NHC: (Looks to be a Cat 4 down the road).

INIT 03/1500Z 14.8N 40.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.4N 42.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 20.2N 51.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 21.4N 53.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 27.8N 60.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Fri Sep 03 2021

...LARRY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 42.0W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

...LARRY FORECAST TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 44.6W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1830 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

So far the CONUS looks to be okay as Larry remains over the ocean. The only landmass that should keep their eyes open is Bermuda. That island is not out of the woods yet.

Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021

...LARRY LARGER AND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 45.8W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

Infrared and visible shot of Larry:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 05 2021

...LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 49.7W
ABOUT 880 MI...1415 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

Also watching a disturbance that has a 30% chance to develop in the next 5 days over the SW Gulf. A few models try and develop this thing and it becomes a problem for the Gulf Coast again in the future. We'll see... development, if it does occur with this one, is expected to be slow in the short term.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:58 am Also watching a disturbance that has a 30% chance to develop in the next 5 days over the SW Gulf. A few models try and develop this thing and it becomes a problem for the Gulf Coast again in the future. We'll see... development, if it does occur with this one, is expected to be slow in the short term.

I saw the other day on TWC tropical update that hatched area forecast and thought, what is making that system take a sharp right turn after going through the Yucatan. Too bad its not forecast to shoot due west into Mexico proper and avoid the USA entirely. Last thing LA, MS, and other areas need is MORE rain after such massive flooding and destruction via Ida.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Sep 05, 2021 11:41 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:58 am Also watching a disturbance that has a 30% chance to develop in the next 5 days over the SW Gulf. A few models try and develop this thing and it becomes a problem for the Gulf Coast again in the future. We'll see... development, if it does occur with this one, is expected to be slow in the short term.

I saw the other day on TWC tropical update that hatched area forecast and thought, what is making that system take a sharp right turn after going through the Yucatan. Too bad its not forecast to shoot due west into Mexico proper and avoid the USA entirely. Last thing LA, MS, and other areas need is MORE rain after such massive flooding and destruction via Ida.

Agreed Bro. I'll root for a TX landfall if it comes to that versus LA. My customer has had about enough of it lol

Larry has winds of 120 this morning moving to the NW at 12. Larry will continue to be a major hurricane over the next couple of days. Bermuda is still at risk with this system but the CONUS can breathe a sigh of relief thank goodness.

Now, we should be turning our attn to that wave in the S Gulf. Still looking like a 30% chance over the next 5 days so development, if any, will be slow. Gulf Coast states still need to be watching it as some models still want to develop this thing.

Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021
500 PM AST Mon Sep 06 2021

...NOAA AIRCRAFT FINDS LARRY SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 53.9W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES