Absolute Vorticity

Forecast looks to be panning out nicely. Total unchanged for the event 1 to 2.50" for most of AVland with spotty 3". Best chance for the 3" amounts along and west of 75. Dayton /Cbus will be more involved late today and overnight as opposed to yesterday when cincy had most of the rain qpf. Spotty showers today with steady and so.etimes heavy overnight through Wednesday morning . Scattered blustery showers for the rest of Wednesday. Quite an area wide soaker without a tropical system involved for September.

Noticed the lawn starting to come back now so mowing will be back in my future after a 3 week vacation. Looks good for many of us to get hit on Wed with falling temps thru the 50s. A little early taste of late Oct or early Nov?

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/09/21/goode- ... -blog-921/

12z 3km NAM has us I-75 folk on the razors edge with copious QPF to the west in Indiana and much less QPF east of 71 including Columbus. Similar to the 6z run but a tad bit more east.

12Z GFS brings in an additional 1.5" of rain at CVG from now thru Wed night. That is on top of the inch we got yesterday. The models did a great job with this one. Now that I am back, watch for the chaos theory to return.

Wouldn't this be wonderful?

12Z Euro is coming in just shy of 2" of additional rain at CVG and lingers the rain a little longer Wed night / wee hours of Thurs morning.

Weak low now beginning to develop along the front over Western KY and IN. It is broad and not yet organized but will do so this evening and move into S IN overnight. It will work NE into Ohio on Wed deepening as it does slow. And this thing is a slow mover due to the blocking in place. Look for the rain to pick up as well as the wind this evening into the overnight and esp tomorrow and Wed night. Wed / wed night should be the deform band rains. More thundery this evening ahead of the developing low / cold front.

So leaving for my first vacation in ages tomorrow - driving into the deep hollers of eastern West Virginia. Could see some good storms on the way there it appears. Hoping for a nice soaking here of course!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:49 pm So leaving for my first vacation in ages tomorrow - driving into the deep hollers of eastern West Virginia. Could see some good storms on the way there it appears. Hoping for a nice soaking here of course!

Have a great time Mike! Everyone's Domes will burst in the next 36 hours. A weak system for Saturday. Otherwise... fall weather and some really nice weather at that upcoming...

It's a pretty nice cool evening out there folks! Got the grill going. Doing baked potatoes and vegetable pockets. Pork steaks to follow. Cold beer. And Sirus xm Classic rock bbq channel. This is fall lol

Rocktober is coming!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 4:53 pm It's a pretty nice cool evening out there folks! Got the grill going. Doing baked potatoes and vegetable pockets. Pork steaks to follow. Cold beer. And Sirus xm Classic rock bbq channel. This is fall lol

Rocktober is coming!

I can smell it from here

Most of the rain should hold off until after 9pm slowly increasing from the south and west. After midnight most folks should be seeing widespread rain. A rumble of thunder or a lightening strike this evening is not out of the question. Heavy rain continues tomorrow esp early with falling temps thru the 50s by afternoon and windy conditions. Gusts to 30 mph possible. Fall Equinox is tomorrow afternoon around 3:30. Right on cue...

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:30 pm Wouldn't this be wonderful?

That will get the leaf color to get going.

Picked up 7 tenths of an inch from overnight last night into this morning. Was not really expecting that.

young pup wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 7:16 pm
That will get the leaf color to get going.

I think the warm days and cool nights coming up after we get by this storm system should start the process over the next couple of weeks.

On the WHIO7 evening wx segment I saw where a rainfall totals forecast map (not sure what particular in-house model they use) showed for here in Greenville i.e. getting around 3.55" and that up around Neil Armstrong's native hometown of Wapakoneta around 3.95" (almost 4") by the time all is said and done with this system sometime Thurs morning!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 3:49 pm So leaving for my first vacation in ages tomorrow - driving into the deep hollers of eastern West Virginia. Could see some good storms on the way there it appears. Hoping for a nice soaking here of course!

Have a safe trip and a great time, Mike! Pace yourself as you don't want to risk hydroplaning.

Picked up a tenth for today for a combo half inch since Mon.

0.19" new rain at CVG since midnight. Plenty more to come. 1012 MB low just east of us will continue deepening as it moves northward today.

Good Morning Les and since the rain started on Monday I am at .69. Funny how different pattern will result in different rain amounts. Most of the year I have by far had the most rainfall but this system it looks like I will be at the bottom in terms of total rainfall. Mowed again yesterday and I can tell you in my neighborhood that folks are having troubles keeping up with mowing and its still two times a week and the folks who are unable to mow the grass is high and its a mess. My lawn has never looked better in September but really not thrilled about twice a week plus I am mowing my daughters as well so lucky I am retired lol.

Good morning Tim... probably up to 1.25" now for the event total here. Lawn is recovering here nicely thanks to the rain. Keep it coming! NW winds are gusting up to 30 mph this morning. We are already into the 50s now. A raw day ahead...

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:55 am Good morning Tim... probably up to 1.25" now for the event total here. Lawn is recovering here nicely thanks to the rain. Keep it coming! NW winds are gusting up to 30 mph this morning. We are already into the 50s now. A raw day ahead...

Love this kind of weather and I love when we get that day where it is 38 degrees rainy and windy. When that happens it usually means we are heading into a nice period of winter weather.

Been in on a nice fetch from Lexington since about 4am. Event total up to 2.6"

BG Storm Talk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/09/22/goode- ... -blog-922/