August 2021 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

Good luck to everyone today! I'm sure there will be some disappointments, but hopefully all can at least get a little liquid gold.

[tron777]

Got down to 71 this morning... better then that 76 crap. We'll just have to see where the front is after 3-4pm and where the best instability is, etc. South of the river should be the best area if not even south of ILN CWA. Wouldn't surprise me. Hope that isn't the case though and we can all muster up something.

[cloudy72]

I am leaning south today as well - not to say anything can't pop up north, but I feel best chances are south. Right now the best CAPE is down in Kentucky with around 2000 J/kg and PW of 1.7". DCAPE still decent in the metro 1000-1100.

[tron777]

I'm not even feeling that good for my hood. The best action could easily occur south of the Metro as I said this morning. We have some weak shear in the 0-1KM level, about 25 knots, but upper level shear in the 0-6KM range is pretty much null and void. Plenty of heat and humidity to work with but the front is not going to have a lot of kick unfortunately.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR shows my fears nicely. A rouge storm possible for us, but the best line and converge sets up over our S counties into Central KY. Convective temp today per the 12Z ILN sounding is 88 degrees.

[tron777]

CVG has 87 as of 12pm, 88 here. Another contest day? Quite possible. But, we are almost to the convective temp too.

[tron777]

SPC has the slight risk basically SE of I-71 and marginal for everyone else. 15% wind SE of I71 and 5% hail for all. We'll see... Current mesoanalysis shows awesome CAPE 4000-4500 SE of I-71 and DCAPE values look really nice over SW Ohio - 1400! Any storm that pops there, watch for strong winds. Again, shear is lacking so everything is going to be scattered. Mid level lapse rates are poor but steep in the low levels so we've got that going for us. Some Domes will not get broken today though but we knew that going in.

[tron777]

Most everything currently popping is located along or S / SE of I71. Not surprised...

[tron777]

MD has been issued though - 40% chance of a watch being issued:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1511.html

[tron777]

A cell popped and developed to my East. Imagine that.

[tron777]

CVG got 89'ed so far today before getting clipped by a t-storm and dropping to 86 at 2pm.

[cloudy72]

Looks like CVG is at 91 now.

[tpweather]

A nice quick downpour and still can hear some thunder. Just enough to water the plants and wow huge crash as I write this post and that tells me tons of energy involved today.

[tron777]

Looks like CVG is at 91 now.

Will update the contest thread, thanks Mike. The Dome seems to be holding here so far as expected.

[cloudy72]

Will update the contest thread, thanks Mike. The Dome seems to be holding here so far as expected.

No problem, Les! Dome in full force here as well. Most of the action as expected ESE of I-71. A couple showers have popped along the cold front from Detroit to Lafayette - we shall see if any of these can make it down here later this evening but not expecting much if anything.

[tron777]

Will update the contest thread, thanks Mike. The Dome seems to be holding here so far as expected.

No problem, Les! Dome in full force here as well. Most of the action as expected ESE of I-71. A couple showers have popped along the cold front from Detroit to Lafayette - we shall see if any of these can make it down here later this evening but not expecting much if anything.

Models are trying to give us a little more rain with tropical moisture ahead of Fred so we'll see. Not holding my breath.

[Bgoney]

Storms are collapsing once they peak , 5 minutes is about all you get from one storm

[tpweather]

Good to see summer is back to normal for my neighborhood though the grass is still green but has some brown spots. Will mow Saturday since I am heading to a place that will no doubt have tons of rain over the next 5 days. Easily see 3 inches down there and maybe more depending on the exact track of Fred. Wish I could send some of that rain northwest

[tron777]

91 officially at CVG today. I only hit 89. Must have had a jet take off. Can any of that stuff along the front make it down in here? Probably not. We'll be after dark by then. Bad frontal timing for us has been the issue.

[Bgoney]

You have to like the trend with Fred next week , nothing more than that at this point but at least chances are back in the picture for next week unlike a day or two ago with modeling of Fred

[Bgoney]

Renewed convection knocking on domes edge. Of course the front stalls for a bit in north central KY

[tron777]

Renewed convection knocking on domes edge. Of course the front stalls for a bit in north central KY

The action with the front, I just don't think is going to make it in here either so as you said, hope to see the trends with Fred continue. If so, all will be just fine. Also interested in watching the next one, soon to be Grace as well.

[MVWxObserver]

Not surprisingly, nothing up my way from today.

Looking forward to daily chances of scattered showers / t-storms again this Mon through at least Fri period.

[cloudy72]

So apparently had a storm between 1 and 2am and somehow managed 0.59”!

[tron777]

Good Saturday morning to you all!

Keeping today dry (minus a pop up for the SE Crew), otherwise POPS are back now for tomorrow and every day next week. How much moisture can we get from Fred and another incoming front is going to be the keys to us getting some nice rains or being more scattered and a lot of us failing.

I am going with scattered POPS in the 40/50% variety for Sun - Tues with likely POPS by Wed and Thurs with the leftovers of Fred. Scattered again on Friday. We'll see how things shape up as we go out in time. 2" of rain thru mid week is absolutely likely should Fred come far enough north to bring the rain shield to us.

Models show the following precip amounts for Cincinnati ending at Wed evening 8pm.
0Z Euro - 1.5"
0Z GFS - 0.20" 6Z GFS - 0.60"
0Z NAM ending ending 8am Tues morning: 1.3"
6Z NAM ending early Tues afternoon: 0.90"

So as you cam see....some show scattered, very little, and others show some much needed rainfall. We know based on this past week how bad the models have done with rainfall distribution. Awful in fact. Throw in a front and Fred and we are probably best to keep nowcasting it. Bottom line... we've been screwed us, but more rain chances, plenty in fact, are coming. Just have to wait and see who can cash in.