Absolute Vorticity

Front looks to be bisecting Dayton metro - dp of 64 at DAY and 71 at MGY. Seeing some towering cu in Kettering.

Some CU here also. Dews hovering around 70 or so here.

89 so far at CVG for the official high as of 2pm.

Thunder here... lots of cells along and SE of I-71. So far "The Dome" is holding here.

If you don't cash in today, GFS and Euro offer up POPS by Friday. GFS has a line coming thru with a front Fri night and the Euro wants to put a complex thru here on Father's Day. Otherwise... a possible U80s day tomorrow then we look good temp wise (and humidity) wise for a bit.

The extended range continues to feature more cold frontal attacks or slow moving fronts so rain chances still look decent and no big heat waves are on the horizon. I think that changes still come later this month or July / Aug time periods as has been the call for a while, but for now... the idea is on hold.

Down to 88 as of 3pm as CVG got clipped by a t-storm. Nothing here so I'll be waiting until Friday.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:52 am

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 11:14 pm

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:32 pm Hey Eric - you should be seeing a nice lightning show to your west! Was just severe warned.

Hi Mike,

Yes, its pouring like something else here and some very nice lightning flashes! Patience has paid off since the .30" I received on Mon, Bro!

Am under a warning until 11:30!

Awesome bro! Glad you were able to cash in!!

I was a bit tired this morning at church, Bro, but tracking that storm and posting on what it was doing here was definitely worth it!! It was probably the best storm that came through so far in this late Spring!

A couple reports from my county ...

0237 UNK UNION CITY DARKE OH 4020 8479 MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE UNION CITY AREA. (ILN)

0323 UNK 3 SSE GREENVILLE DARKE OH 4006 8460 TREE DOWN IN JAYSVILLE NEAR 36. (ILN)

Also a town north of Evansville, where some cousins of mine on Mom's side, reside ...

0530 UNK OWENSVILLE GIBSON IN 3827 8769 BUILDINGS ON MAIN STREET DAMAGED WITH SOME BRICKS FROM BUILDINGS IN THE ROAD. TREES DOWN AROUND TOWN. DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO REPORTED. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (PAH)

WHO DEY, WHO DEY, WHO DEY THINK GONNA BEAT 'EM REDLEGS!!!! CONGRATULATIONS FELLAS AS THEY'VE NOW SWEPT 2 TEAMS 2 WEEKENDS IN A ROW!!

Currently 86 here in G'ville.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:44 pm

The extended range continues to feature more cold frontal attacks or slow moving fronts so rain chances still look decent and no big heat waves are on the horizon. I think that changes still come later this month or July / Aug time periods as has been the call for a while, but for now... the idea is on hold.

GFS is again leading the way in the extended. EPS/EU have folded the tent on big heat returning(June) for much of conus. With the , gasp, "return of the BLOB" gaining momentum , a -EPO/+PNA, should prolong a NW flow or at least dominate more often than not for the rest of June

Bgoney wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:48 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:44 pm

The extended range continues to feature more cold frontal attacks or slow moving fronts so rain chances still look decent and no big heat waves are on the horizon. I think that changes still come later this month or July / Aug time periods as has been the call for a while, but for now... the idea is on hold.

GFS is again leading the way in the extended. EPS/EU have folded the tent on big heat returning(June) for much of conus. With the , gasp, "return of the BLOB" gaining momentum , a -EPO/+PNA, should prolong a NW flow or at least dominate more often than not for the rest of June

I agree. I was wrong with my thoughts for sure on late June. July onwards has yet to be determined but the -PNA that I was thinking thanks to the tropics assisting, is going to fail. The tropics firing up is going to happen but the tropics to change up the pattern isn't. If anything it looks to hook up with a cold front so some wet times for us are possible down the road if the timing works out right. The MJO looks like it's coming out of the neutral circle then a quick Phase 1 or 2 tour then back to the circle again. Phase 2 is cool for June so this is likely a small factor. Looking like the PNA is going to spike fairly decently positive too into Alaska and with the ridge poking up into AK (80s expected in Fairbanks coming up) that spells a lack of heat for us. Basically just adding to what you've already said.

Bgoney.... you caused me to go look and here it is for those who have not seen it. You can see the PDO working its working back towards the positive direction and the La Nina we had over last winter, sure got erased in a hurry. Be interesting to see how the rest of summer unfolds. Are Tim and I correct with a hotter July and Aug or does this pattern continue?

90 officially at CVG per the 5pm climate report. #2 now in the books. 91 imby today.

That is awesome!

tron777 wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:17 pm Down to 88 as of 3pm as CVG got clipped by a t-storm. Nothing here so I'll be waiting until Friday.

My dome held as well so Friday it will be for me too!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Sun Jun 13, 2021 4:16 pm
I was a bit tired this morning at church, Bro, but tracking that storm and posting on what it was doing here was definitely worth it!! It was probably the best storm that came through so far in this late Spring!

Must admit I was a bit jealous in watching the lightning show from my second floor window

Can't rule out an isolated storm for our Columbus folks today.....I think CIN-DAY corridor stays dry through at least Friday.

Good Monday morning all! Dews have slipped into the 50s so the humidity is finally where we like it for June! Temps will not respond until tomorrow so last contest day is possible. Friday onwards begins another daily chance of storms period.

Good Morning and nice break from the humidity and by Tuesday a temp break as well. Longer term is something I am sort of in the wait and see because the tropics are acting up close by and that can throw models off and also me. Love this week or drier weather. We are about an inch below normal in terms of rainfall at CVG. When I look at averages it can be deceiving especially if you get a huge event that gives you tons of rain but then you get dry for an extended period. This year and especially during the spring the rains have been decent and no big event plus the cooler air in May helps in keeping the moisture in the ground.

Going to fertilize the crops and flowers after work today so that should get me by watering for a couple of days. Lawn looks good and hope to keep the rains coming to save on the ole pocketbook this year. We'll see what happens!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:30 am Good Morning and nice break from the humidity and by Tuesday a temp break as well. Longer term is something I am sort of in the wait and see because the tropics are acting up close by and that can throw models off and also me.

Kind of like getting these tropical systems right now , I like to see how the new GFS handles these waves and accuracy in lead time.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:37 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:30 am Good Morning and nice break from the humidity and by Tuesday a temp break as well. Longer term is something I am sort of in the wait and see because the tropics are acting up close by and that can throw models off and also me.

Kind of like getting these tropical systems right now , I like to see how the new GFS handles these waves and accuracy in lead time.

I agree and so far the new gfs has been better but will that continue with different types of weather and especially the tropics which tend to give models headaches

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:51 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:37 am

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:30 am Good Morning and nice break from the humidity and by Tuesday a temp break as well. Longer term is something I am sort of in the wait and see because the tropics are acting up close by and that can throw models off and also me.

Kind of like getting these tropical systems right now , I like to see how the new GFS handles these waves and accuracy in lead time.

I agree and so far the new gfs has been better but will that continue with different types of weather and especially the tropics which tend to give models headaches

The tropics are not only a good test for the new GFS but the Euro got an upgrade also to handle tropical forecasting. So let's see how good or bad it does too.

So while our booooooring weather continues here, just to our east another Severe Thunderstorm Watch about to be issued for far eastern OH into PA and northern WV. How many times have they been hit this season? LOL