Absolute Vorticity

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Mar 12, 2021 6:33 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:21 am

young pup wrote: ↑Fri Mar 12, 2021 9:14 am 6 tenths imby. The backyard really has greened up overnight.

Same here, JP. It'll be mowing season… UGH... before you know it.

Yes, you before me. Need to pull those mowers out of storage and do some prep work on them.

I need to do a little pre-season maintenance as well. Add it to the To Do List.

Made it to the new av !

I'm here

theextremeone wrote: ↑Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:00 pm Made it to the new av !

Great to see you, Jason!

Have missed you, Bro!

I'm more than ready for Spring!!

theextremeone wrote: ↑Fri Mar 12, 2021 8:00 pm Made it to the new av !

Glad you are aboard, Bro! T-storm season is approaching.

Good Saturday morning to you all! Not a bad Saturday and Sunday if you have outdoor plans. The 50s today, with the rain chances backing off for tomorrow. Just a small chance in the afternoon with temps a bit cooler in the U40s to around 50 degrees.

We are still looking at a brief period of sleet and / or freezing rain Sunday night into Monday morning before changing over to rain. Temps are close to freezing down here in CVG Land with cooler readings to the N and E of Cincinnati. I still think we'll have minimal problems due to the warm ground but for those commuting to work Monday morning just a heads up. Highs only in the U30s to L40s by Monday afternoon so a raw day indeed. Rain ends Monday night as temps stay steady, if not slowly rise.

Tuesday is decent now, in the 60s with a low rain chance. We may even stay dry as the next low is really weak with not much in the way of forcing. Rain moves back into the picture late Wed thru Thurs before temps drop back to below avg levels in the 40s for Friday into the first weekend of Spring with dry conditions.

Long Term looks like we will warm up again and have a few nice days before another strong front moves in near the 25th or so, give or take. A strong t-storm risk is showing up there but we're talking fantasy range right now with another cool down behind that powerful front. The usual March up's and down's folks. Once we get towards late March and into April, I suspect that the severe wx chances will be picking up so stay tuned to the forum for the latest details.

Oh... and don't forget to spring forward before you go to bed tonight! :grin:

Good Morning Les. Forecast looks good and concerning severe weather I agree late this month into April and May. My biggest concern is really dry conditions that could take over later this spring and summer. Seeing a lot of areas to the south not getting their normal rains in March and if this continues an early start to summer for those folks and that looks to spread as summer approaches. Been a concern of mine for sometime and the way things are playing out so far my concerns have not lowered. Long term models are just terrible at these kind of forecasts and I just start looking at the conditions across the country to get a better feel. If somehow the folks to the south and west of us start getting rain and getting to normal or above then my level of concern will be less but at this point not liking what I see. Really have not seen a rather strong drought locally since 2007 and yes we have had years where it gets dry in the summer but I am talking about months where very little rain falls.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:49 am Good Morning Les. Forecast looks good and concerning severe weather I agree late this month into April and May. My biggest concern is really dry conditions that could take over later this spring and summer. Seeing a lot of areas to the south not getting their normal rains in March and if this continues an early start to summer for those folks and that looks to spread as summer approaches. Been a concern of mine for sometime and the way things are playing out so far my concerns have not lowered. Long term models are just terrible at these kind of forecasts and I just start looking at the conditions across the country to get a better feel. If somehow the folks to the south and west of us start getting rain and getting to normal or above then my level of concern will be less but at this point not liking what I see. Really have not seen a rather strong drought locally since 2007 and yes we have had years where it gets dry in the summer but I am talking about months where very little rain falls.

Good morning Tim! I miss seeing you post. Hope everything is ok. Concerning the drought, it has been expanding across the Midwest. Not sure how that will impact the summer yet since it's only mid March but we don't want to see that trend continue into May. A long, hot summer could be the end result. Or... we're on the edge of the heat dome and it's an active and stormy summer. Again, just a little early to see what's going to happen, but it's something that we need to monitor for sure. Glad you brought this up.

Here is the latest drought map... a large chunk of the country right now actually is in a drought category of some kind.


Then, if we look at soil moisture maps over the last few weeks, that really gives you a better overall picture. Since 2/28:

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:39 am Oh... and don't forget to spring forward before you go to bed tonight! :grin:

Good reminder for us all, Les! On that note, on the old forum, we had to manually adjust for DST in our profiles. I took a quick look in my profile and don't see that anymore so I assume with our new platform, that is no longer necessary? Maybe I missed it in my profile though?

WxMom wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 10:26 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 8:39 am Oh... and don't forget to spring forward before you go to bed tonight! :grin:

Good reminder for us all, Les! On that note, on the old forum, we had to manually adjust for DST in our profiles. I took a quick look in my profile and don't see that anymore so I assume with our new platform, that is no longer necessary? Maybe I missed it in my profile though?

I looked as well. The new forum may handle it and we may not have to do anything. If the new software is smart enough, it should run off of your computer's or cell phone's date and time which does update automatically. Guess we'll find out tomorrow LOL

Good afternoon folks... Just a quick summation of the ongoing forecast with a little tweak here and there after looking at this afternoons guidance.

Sunday - Dry with highs 50 to 55.
Monday - A brief period of sleet and frz rain changing to rain with highs in the 35 to 40 degree range. Rainfall amounts in that 0.20-0.40" range.
Tuesday - A decent day with highs 60 to 65.
Wed - Another nice day with highs in the mid 60s.
Thurs - Wet with temps starting off in the 50s then falling into the 40s by afternoon. Rainfall amounts of 0.50-1" expected.
Fri - Next weekend: Dry with highs in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s / 30s.

I saw where Darke and parts of Preble cos are currently in a D0 (abnormally dry) zone. Given a snowier than normal (so to say) winter that we had, kinda surprised already to see a D0 in the area.

Currently 46 here in G'ville.

52 at CVG, 53 here today. Not too bad since it wasn't windy. About avg for mid March.

Laramie, WY could be ground zero for the big Rockies blizzard. As of this post, it doesn't look too bad yet but it'll be raging there tonight and tomorrow. 2 feet plus expected.

Meanwhile, there is a severe aspect of this system with big hail and tornadoes ongoing this evening in the Panhandle of Texas. Damage already being reported.

Good Sunday morning to you all! Models are now running an hour later until we change back again come November. Speaking of the time change, the forum software now takes care of it for you so no DST changes are required! :grin:

43 currently here imby with cloudy skies. A mostly cloudy day today with temps much like yesterday, in the low and mid 50s. Rain moves in tomorrow around mid to late morning with a brief period of sleet / frz rain still possible at the onset. Again, not expecting any issues. A cold day with most folks staying in the 30s for highs. Rainfall amounts still not looking too impressive. Most folks should fall into that quarter to half inch range.

Tues and Wed still look awesome with temps back up into the mid and upper 60s!

Next rain maker due in Thurs and Thurs night before we drop again for Friday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts with this one look more impressive. Will go with that half to 1" range at this time. Temps in the 40s Friday but a nice rebound with sunshine next weekend. 50s Sat and probably in the 60s again by Sunday.

In terms of severe wx chances over the next week or so... there still doesn't look to be any for us. Thursday does need to be watched in the Lower OV say down in West KY or SW IN.

tron777 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:37 pm Laramie, WY could be ground zero for the big Rockies blizzard. As of this post, it doesn't look too bad yet but it'll be raging there tonight and tomorrow. 2 feet plus expected.

What a cool looking town. Looks like the old west. This is much needed snow for folks in the rockies as it has been a year with below normal snows. Yes they get snow almost every March and have seen it snow during July in Wyoming. This helps with water supplies so the snow may seem like a pain but the folks out there know its a good thing to have. Notice how systems this year tend to have us with a decent amount of precip but once they get closer the amounts go way down. Just a week from spring and lets hope that totals start to go up. I still don;t see severe weather for us locally later this week though you can always get a clap or two of thunder. Need to see more rain in the south central states in the next 6 weeks because if we don't could be a hot summer for many. Even the southeast which started out great as dried up some lately but still fine as last year brought plenty of rain for most folks down there which keeps the lakes pretty high as well.

Good morning Tim! NWS in Cheyenne, WY tweeted that they picked up 10" in only 4 hours overnight! Wow... I can only imagine how awesome that must have been.

10 inches (so far) there in Laramie ~ same amount that Greenville got in mid Feb.

51 here... not a bad afternoon. It just doesn't feel as nice as yesterday due to the lack of sunshine.

Hey Tim , how's your back? Better I hope.

A fairly typical March southern rockies Snowstorm (1'-3')in my book, but of course the MSM has to throw historic into every impactful weather system these days. There(Southern Rockies) best storms have always been either in the Fall or late winter/spring.

The AO / NAO looks to take one more dip after St. Patrick's Day then they rise to very positive levels. The MJO looks to be in Phase 1 but then goes back into the neutral circle. What I think looks to happen is late March into early April should turn milder and we'll finally have full on spring! Severe wx chances should also start to pick up in the process. So we have the cool shot tomorrow then the next cool shot Thursday. Then once we get past next weekend, I am expecting more sustainable warmth and increased severe wx chances. We'll see how my thoughts look as we get down the road but these are my long range thoughts for now.