Absolute Vorticity

Smohler wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 11:25 am Yikes! I love the new forum look, but I haven't posted on here yet. I am not good with change. Anyway, catching up a little on the weather, things have been busy with doctor appts etc. for my husband and I. Never ending anymore it seems. The forum always makes me feel like home. So, i do have a question and I know it doesnt go here-- where would I post about fireworks? I have no idea how to start a thread. I really just need to know good places to buy them, seems like this year may have some shortages and I know some on here are knowledgeable in that area. So sorry to clog up the weather thread, someone just give me an idea where to start that discussion. Thank you..

Hey Sherry... We have an AV Pyrotechnics Thread already set up. Hope you are able to post more.

https://www.absolutevorticity.com/viewt ... ?f=18&t=22

Dry until Sunday afternoon per today's 12Z GFS then we turn very active but mild... probably in the 70s.

Longer term also looking mild and stormy. I am hedging my bet on an active pattern next week and beyond as the trough is centered over the Rockies and Plains (Severe wx risks there) and we're in between that and the Bermuda high / SE Ridge where the core of the warmth will be. We will have a mild SW flow from the Gulf with system after system trying to push in but it never does thanks to the SE ridge. So we get chances for storms and weakening complexes of storms that move in from time to time. Should be a humid pattern. Lows in the 50s rising up into the 60s and highs in the 70s to maybe low 80s on days when storm coverage is less. It won't rain everyday all the time but rain chances will be around daily. The action begins Sunday / Monday time frame depending on how this works out as we get closer once the dry air has been booted out that is over us now.

12Z Euro brings the rain chances in starting on Sunday morning a tad earlier then the GFS but it does look spotty. I agree and do think the higher chances hold off until Sun night or Mon of next week.

Made it to 62 today. Got the grass mowed again. ILN has some great info with regards to using the new Climate Normals for 1991-2020 for temp, precip, and snowfall averages.

US Climate Normals:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/us-climate-normals

What does this mean?

https://www.weather.gov/iln/NewNormals

37 AGAIN this morning - impatiently waiting for this absolute crap pattern to end. LOL

39 here as was yesterday. That makes 7 or 8 days imby where the temp has dropped to the 30s, in MAY

CVG is at 43 right now. 37 degrees here currently, no frost. Looks like we'll have 2-3 more fabulous days here before rain chances slowly return Sunday, becoming likely Sun night and Monday dropping off slowly Tues into Wed. Temps will hit the 70s this weekend and the U70s which is above avg finally here by the middle of next week.

Edited post to correct my current temp.

Saw quite a bit of frost on the way in

Had a good spread between me and CVG for lows. 37 here and 42 there. I am usually within 3 degrees of the airport so was surprised to see such a difference this morning. Could have been 35-36 at the bottom of the hill down by the creek imby easily. If I see patchy frost on mornings like these, that is usually where I would find it, if there was any.

The overnight GFS and Euro runs both show a wet Monday with heavy rain likely. GFS has over an inch at CVG with the Euro coming in over 1.5" Scattered chances before and after Monday also, but Monday seems to be the highest chances for widespread rainfall.

Currently 37 at Indian hill

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/05/13/goode- ... ther-blog/

12Z GFS keeps most folks N of the river dry until Monday. best chance on Sun is S of the river. The warm front gets us Monday but not I-70. It never makes it that far north until mid week so if correct, you guys are dry and miss out on Monday's rain that will be a lock for us down here.

Same rainfall pattern on the 12Z Euro. Scattered Sunday, wet Monday and then scattered again on Tues.

A nicer day today... I made it up to 66. Should be a degree or two warmer tomorrow and in the 70s by Sat. Spotty rains Sunday then likely Monday and spotty Tues perhaps into Wed as we get closer to 80.

I'll be out of town leaving early tomorrow morning coming back on Monday, My cousin in Mich, his son has graduated college, so they are throwing a Grad Party! Weather up there looks to be dry with highs in the upper 60s/ 70ish by Sun and Mon with spotty storm chances by then. So all in all, pretty good weather.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 6:40 pm A nicer day today... I made it up to 66. Should be a degree or two warmer tomorrow and in the 70s by Sat. Spotty rains Sunday then likely Monday and spotty Tues perhaps into Wed as we get closer to 80.

I'll be out of town leaving early tomorrow morning coming back on Monday, My cousin in Mich, his son has graduated college, so they are throwing a Grad Party! Weather up there looks to be dry with highs in the upper 60s/ 70ish by Sun and Mon with spotty storm chances by then. So all in all, pretty good weather.

Congratulations to your cousin's son, Bro!! Have a great trip and time!

Currently 63 here in G'ville and progged for around 40 Fri morning.

We seem to be trending in the right direction. Trevor likey

Have a safe trip Les! Made it to 67 here.

Ha ha - welp 18z GFS has 90 degrees at CVG on May 28/29! LOL

Another MAY morning , another morning g in the 30s imby. Incredible cold stretch. Officially turned the heat off for the season this morning, finally.

Trevor wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 8:09 pm 3B12E7E3-E049-4856-83BE-DA1249749C2C.gif

We seem to be trending in the right direction. Trevor likey

The 80s are coming, the 80s are coming!!!

Yup another 39 here - not sure what the consecutive total is here but it's a bunch.

Coldest temp I could find in our area was 35 in Middletown. I think tonight we finally break the 30s streak....which I believe is eight for me. Pretty amazing for May.

12z NAM has lower QPF through at least 8pm Monday. Has about 0.02" at CVG and nothing for DAY. It has 0.11" for CMH. Heaviest QPF down in central and southern Kentucky with 1-2" down there.