April Weather Discussion

[tron777]

CVG's total is now 0.06" as of 3pm. Our main issue of concern as the month winds down, will be to track severe wx chances on Tuesday of next week.

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Been seeing a few pockets of more moderate rain here.

4pm updated event totals:

CVG - 0.57"
Me - 0.49"
Boone Co mesonet: 0.27"

EDITED to update totals again.

[tron777]

7pm updated event totals:

CVG - 0.62"
Me - 0.56"
Boone Co mesonet: 0.41"

[Bgoney]

1.10” totals here. East fork creek behind me is rolling, so those 2-4” amounts upstream are probably spot on . Hi-res NAM was the only one showing those high end isolated totals so good job from that model.

IMG_3541.png

[tron777]

Good morning! Total precip for the entire event:

CVG - 0.87"
Me - 0.90"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.94"

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice little event with the Euro winning this round. Hit hard with 1.66 for the event and most came late last night. Most folks close to an inch but some scattered areas did much better.

[tron777]

Where I go mushroom hunting, that area received a half inch so that works for me!

[tron777]

Thanks to the clouds, it maybe tough to make it to 60 today. Thinking of lowering temps to the 50s for highs. Still only 49 as of 10am, 50 here.

[tpweather]

Thanks to the clouds, it maybe tough to make it to 60 today. Thinking of lowering temps to the 50s for highs. Still only 49 as of 10am, 50 here.

I agree Les and if the sun does not make an appearance then mid 50's at best.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 69, DAY 73 and CMH 76 on Fri.

[MVWxObserver]

A lot of real estate there from central TX to northern NY per Tues.

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/local/ef-0-to ... BXOP736PE/

An EF0 touched down in Darke Co on Fri evening and did some minor damage to a bldg in a rural area.

2332 3 NNE Greenville Darke OH 4014 8462 EF0 tornado confirmed north of Greenville. Minor damage to a structure with estimated winds of 65 MPH. (ILN)

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 64, DAY 63 and CMH 66 today.

[tpweather]

Enjoy the nice quiet weather the next two days as we are entering another busy period. Starting Tuesday and going through Friday periods of showers and thundershowers are likely and though it won't rain all the time I can see many folks getting 1-2 inches of rainfall and if you happen to get hit with some stronger storms we know that total can go up quickly. Flooding not a major concern as we have plenty of vegetation but flash flooding can happen like Friday night if you get hit with a storm that delivers a couple of inches in a short period. Severe weather always a concern and yes chances are there but not expecting a large outbreak but all types are possible during the week. Then we get a break next weekend and then another chance of more rain but that is more with back door fronts from the northeast and will just need to see how that plays out after we get through this week

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and a very nice day with a few high clouds. Expect more high clouds on Monday and then the rain chances ramp up starting Tuesday. How much rain is the question and models tend to underplay totals somewhat this far out with this set-up. It will not rain all the time Tuesday-Friday and models have been sort of ending the rain a tad earlier and that is good for Friday. Going to use a general 1-2 inches over the entire period and like I mentioned before if you get hit with a stronger storm that stalls for a period of time you can exceed that total. Not really seeing any heavier rain from one place to another so this led me to the 1-2 inch total. The weekend looks great and the following week at this point not a week like this but there will be some cooler air to the northeast and sometimes we get those back door cold fronts which can give you some showers and a cool short for a day or two. Will watch that later this week and will head to the May area to add comments on the upcoming month

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / DAY both got to 66 and CMH 68 today.

[tron777]

Good morning! We got over 200 morels yesterday! And Cooper scored 3 goals in his soccer game Saturday's and a career high 5 goals last night lol They have to put him on Defense at times to give the other kids a chance!

Weatherwise, all eyes are on severe wx chances for tomorrow as well as heavy rain chances for Wed and Thurs also. Lingering action into Fri possible too but the weekend right now looks very nice! Lows in the 40s, highs in the 60s Sat and 70 or so on Sun. I will talk more about tomorrow when I get time throughout the work day today.

[tron777]

SPC has everyone under a slight risk accept Columbus. That area is under an Enhanced risk for tomorrow afternoon and evening. Timing for Cincinnati currently suggests that it'll be an early afternoon arrival. If correct, then our Eastern counties would be able to build up more CAPE so the highest severe threat at this time, is our Eastern counties of the CWA including Columbus.

Then, we will be focusing on heavy rain threats as the front stalls nearby. Waves of low pressure will move along it for periodic heavy rain episodes. The fronts location of course determines where that heavier rain will fall. The worst day for severe wx is Tues and for heavy rain on Thurs. Rainfall amounts should be in that 1/2 to 1" range for a lot of people but 1-2" or more is likely where the front stalls for heavy rain prospects. I am watching and waiting on that one. I'd like to get thru the severe wx first.

[tron777]

[tron777]

No major changes from the updated SPC's Day 2 Outlook. The Enhanced risk area is growing for Ohio tomorrow. It is still mainly NE of the Cincy area though.

[Bgoney]

Not a lot of agreement from models on how tomorrow plays out throughout the day

[MVWxObserver]

CVG / CMH both reached 80 and DAY 79 today.

[Bgoney]

Still some question how early storms develop, late morning, early afternoon or do things wait until peak heating? Should reach convective temp fairly early on so we’ll see. Should still see scattered severe storms however it evolves. It’s a good thing we don’t have a bit higher low level shear because things would get out of hand

[tron777]

Good morning! The SPC has upgraded everyone to an Enhanced Risk. 2% TOR (5% NE of Cincy), 30% Wind, and 15% Hail NE of Cincy, 5% to the SW. Timing looks to be between 12pm and 10pm so multiple rounds of storms appear possible. Do we get missed entirely? Do we see one or two different rounds? Your location may see different conditions then mine. Just one of those types of set up's as Bgoney was mentioning uncertainty wise.


https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html