January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

[tron777]

So we have an interesting model battle shaping up today. The GFS is more north and wetter while the Euro is more south and drier. Which solution wins? Hope to find that out today. It's all the difference for us along / S of the River. An example: My hood could see 6-10" of snow / sleet if the Euro is right. If it's the GFS, then I could get snow and sleet accum of 4-6" with up to 1/4" of ice. Yikes! That' kind of what we're at.

Major implication for I-70 Crew too. Less snow with the Euro say 4-6" but more snow with the GFS in the order of 6-12" plus. For SE Crew, the dry slot would east away at some of the QPF and thus impact totals. I could say up to 1/2" of ice and 2-4" of snow and sleet would be a decent call there versus 4-6" of snow and probably 1/4" of ice on the Euro.

Much to keep an eye on as the energy begins to move onshore the Western US today.

I think the 12z package will be very telling and more so 0z tomorrow.

For sure! Bgoney mentioned this also. A partial sampling on 12z today and should get a full sampling tonight.

[tpweather]

This a somewhat different storm in a few items to mention is how many hours of snow/ice falling and could be nearly 24 hours. We don't see that often so already I feel good about the storm. The transfer issue and again moisture will transfer over the mountains every time but the storm is going out to sea and not forming a deeper low to head up the east coast. I may be wrong but I believe this helps on the back end of the storm.

[tpweather]

Did the Kroger shopping this morning and already very very busy plus after the holiday's and tons of restocking going on. Have plenty of beer so I am good

Ditto! I'm ready to rock n roll after the workday today!

Les not sure when this happens but somebody will be coming out of the closet and probably need to dust him off.

[tron777]

Did the Kroger shopping this morning and already very very busy plus after the holiday's and tons of restocking going on. Have plenty of beer so I am good

Ditto! I'm ready to rock n roll after the workday today!

Les not sure when this happens but somebody will be coming out of the closet and probably need to dust him off.

It won't be until I get home, I can tell you that. May have to post 2 different people due to multiple precip types expected in our forum coverage area.

[tron777]

This a somewhat different storm in a few items to mention is how many hours of snow/ice falling and could be nearly 24 hours. We don't see that often so already I feel good about the storm. The transfer issue and again moisture will transfer over the mountains every time but the storm is going out to sea and not forming a deeper low to head up the east coast. I may be wrong but I believe this helps on the back end of the storm.

I am hoping that this results in a slow transfer which would help us in the snow dept on Monday. If the upper low can remain intact then watch out! Snow could last into the evening hours instead of being done by noon for example.

[tpweather]

A little early to say which model will win the model wars but the CMC has been steady all along and again this model will hit a few times each winter and hopefully that is case with this storm

[tron777]

A little early to say which model will win the model wars but the CMC has been steady all along and again this model will hit a few times each winter and hopefully that is case with this storm

The Euro has been fairly consistent too. The GFS on the other hand is being the GFS. I'm with Phr0z3n. We should see the GFS coming around with the 12z run.

[Phr0z3n]

A little early to say which model will win the model wars but the CMC has been steady all along and again this model will hit a few times each winter and hopefully that is case with this storm

Very true!

[Phr0z3n]

The major 06z ensemble low locations.

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IMG_1227.png

IMG_1228.png

[Phr0z3n]

The major 06z ensemble low locations.
IMG_1226.pngIMG_1227.pngIMG_1228.png

And surprisingly 06 gfs ensemble is grouped a little tighter, but not near as north as the 0z

[tron777]

Love seeing those trends for Cincinnati that is for sure.

[Phr0z3n]

06z euro Aifs should be starting soon..

[tpweather]

Getting low pressures in southeast Kentucky is usually the best spot for us locally. Not one of those storms that get into northern Alabama and transfers energy. A few other items and one is severe weather to the south. Severe is never good but strong thunderstorms can be a robber of moisture to the north but sometimes that heavier moisture is able to make it to us locally. At this time it seems the better option for us is the storms will not rob us and hopefully that trend continues. The wind and that will pick up especially Monday and this can cause more problems and power outages will be likely. Then how cold next week and zero is a piece of cake but a clear sky and no wind say either Wednesday or Thursday morning and -10 - -15 is possible and models will pick up on that after the snow covers the ground so probably next Tuesday we will start to hear about the cold as well

[Phr0z3n]

Getting low pressures in southeast Kentucky is usually the best spot for us locally. Not one of those storms that get into northern Alabama and transfers energy. A few other items and one is severe weather to the south. Severe is never good but strong thunderstorms can be a robber of moisture to the north but sometimes that heavier moisture is able to make it to us locally. At this time it seems the better option for us is the storms will not rob us and hopefully that trend continues. The wind and that will pick up especially Monday and this can cause more problems and power outages will be likely. Then how cold next week and zero is a piece of cake but a clear sky and no wind say either Wednesday or Thursday morning and -10 - -15 is possible and models will pick up on that after the snow covers the ground so probably next Tuesday we will start to hear about the cold as well

I for one am really glad for your area. It seems like northern Kentucky/Cincy area really doesn’t bode well for major storms.
Up here in northeast Ohio we always have lake effect. This system hitting us right now has out performed modeling. Hopefully that’s the same with the major storm for your area.

[tron777]

Getting low pressures in southeast Kentucky is usually the best spot for us locally. Not one of those storms that get into northern Alabama and transfers energy. A few other items and one is severe weather to the south. Severe is never good but strong thunderstorms can be a robber of moisture to the north but sometimes that heavier moisture is able to make it to us locally. At this time it seems the better option for us is the storms will not rob us and hopefully that trend continues. The wind and that will pick up especially Monday and this can cause more problems and power outages will be likely. Then how cold next week and zero is a piece of cake but a clear sky and no wind say either Wednesday or Thursday morning and -10 - -15 is possible and models will pick up on that after the snow covers the ground so probably next Tuesday we will start to hear about the cold as well

I for one am really glad for your area. It seems like northern Kentucky/Cincy area really doesn’t bode well for major storms.
Up here in northeast Ohio we always have lake effect. This system hitting us right now has out performed modeling. Hopefully that’s the same with the major storm for your area.

Our geography for big storms is awful! The warm tongue from the Gulf usually kills our hopes and dreams and we are too far away for the lakes to help. It's tough getting moisture from the Atlantic too over the mountains. Many things go against us from getting the big one so that's why it is so rare for us.

I'm interested to see how things go for St. Louis. They are a tad further S in latitude then we are so with this system moving more West to East, if they remain more sleet and snow, so should we. If they get into more of a frz rain look then we may find ourselves in that same boat too.

[Phr0z3n]

Getting low pressures in southeast Kentucky is usually the best spot for us locally. Not one of those storms that get into northern Alabama and transfers energy. A few other items and one is severe weather to the south. Severe is never good but strong thunderstorms can be a robber of moisture to the north but sometimes that heavier moisture is able to make it to us locally. At this time it seems the better option for us is the storms will not rob us and hopefully that trend continues. The wind and that will pick up especially Monday and this can cause more problems and power outages will be likely. Then how cold next week and zero is a piece of cake but a clear sky and no wind say either Wednesday or Thursday morning and -10 - -15 is possible and models will pick up on that after the snow covers the ground so probably next Tuesday we will start to hear about the cold as well

I for one am really glad for your area. It seems like northern Kentucky/Cincy area really doesn’t bode well for major storms.
Up here in northeast Ohio we always have lake effect. This system hitting us right now has out performed modeling. Hopefully that’s the same with the major storm for your area.

Our geography for big storms is awful! The warm tongue from the Gulf usually kills our hopes and dreams and we are too far away for the lakes to help. It's tough getting moisture from the Atlantic too over the mountains. Many things go against us from getting the big one so that's why it is so rare for us.

I'm interested to see how things go for St. Louis. They are a tad further S in latitude then we are so with this system moving more West to East, if they remain more sleet and snow, so should we. If they get into more of a frz rain look then we may find ourselves in that same boat too.

What do you guys usually average in seasonal snowfall?

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and yes this is rare and having the small clipper this morning that came through and had some warm air advection which made my forecast a bust. This clipper is bringing in cold air and with two days before a storm temps should stay below the 32 mark most of the time with some teens at night and the surface temps well below 32. The dreaded southeast ridge and its just not a big player this go around and this helps out so much in keeping a stronger push of warm air above us. Yes there will still be some warm air and folks in many parts of Kentucky will see this but with temps on the ground staying below 32 and temps below 32for folks from Lexington and Louisville northward will have almost all winter type precip

Sleet and this usually occurs with a stronger storm but also can happen when a storm gears up at times as well. When and where is not easy this far out but something we need to watch because just a few hours of sleet can cut snow totals down quite a bit.

Frz/rain and sometimes the heavier rain will help in keeping the roads from getting to bad because the ice unable to form but also a 1/4 inch of ice on streets is horrible and want no part of that thank you.

Seasonal snow around 22 inches or so.

[Bgoney]

Great point about St.louis and points due west. When nowcasting begins those areas will be telling for us since the precip shield is moving more east than NE like usually happens

[Phr0z3n]

Great Post Les and yes this is rare and having the small clipper this morning that came through and had some warm air advection which made my forecast a bust. This clipper is bringing in cold air and with two days before a storm temps should stay below the 32 mark most of the time with some teens at night and the surface temps well below 32. The dreaded southeast ridge and its just not a big player this go around and this helps out so much in keeping a stronger push of warm air above us. Yes there will still be some warm air and folks in many parts of Kentucky will see this but with temps on the ground staying below 32 and temps below 32for folks from Lexington and Louisville northward will have almost all winter type precip

Sleet and this usually occurs with a stronger storm but also can happen when a storm gears up at times as well. When and where is not easy this far out but something we need to watch because just a few hours of sleet can cut snow totals down quite a bit.

Frz/rain and sometimes the heavier rain will help in keeping the roads from getting to bad because the ice unable to form but also a 1/4 inch of ice on streets is horrible and want no part of that thank you.

Seasonal snow around 22 inches or so.

More than what I thought, but that’s not bad. Ours is 43 inches but that’s because of lake effect and lake enhancement of storms when they come through. Our snow ratios get outrageous sometimes also which really enhance lake effect totals.

[Phr0z3n]

So far 06z euro Aifs stays the same FWIW

IMG_1229.png

[tron777]

Getting low pressures in southeast Kentucky is usually the best spot for us locally. Not one of those storms that get into northern Alabama and transfers energy. A few other items and one is severe weather to the south. Severe is never good but strong thunderstorms can be a robber of moisture to the north but sometimes that heavier moisture is able to make it to us locally. At this time it seems the better option for us is the storms will not rob us and hopefully that trend continues. The wind and that will pick up especially Monday and this can cause more problems and power outages will be likely. Then how cold next week and zero is a piece of cake but a clear sky and no wind say either Wednesday or Thursday morning and -10 - -15 is possible and models will pick up on that after the snow covers the ground so probably next Tuesday we will start to hear about the cold as well

I for one am really glad for your area. It seems like northern Kentucky/Cincy area really doesn’t bode well for major storms.
Up here in northeast Ohio we always have lake effect. This system hitting us right now has out performed modeling. Hopefully that’s the same with the major storm for your area.

Our geography for big storms is awful! The warm tongue from the Gulf usually kills our hopes and dreams and we are too far away for the lakes to help. It's tough getting moisture from the Atlantic too over the mountains. Many things go against us from getting the big one so that's why it is so rare for us.

I'm interested to see how things go for St. Louis. They are a tad further S in latitude then we are so with this system moving more West to East, if they remain more sleet and snow, so should we. If they get into more of a frz rain look then we may find ourselves in that same boat too.

What do you guys usually average in seasonal snowfall?

Using CVG, 23.3"

[tron777]

So far 06z euro Aifs stays the same FWIW
IMG_1229.png

Awesome track for us!

[Trentonwx06]

All right let’s get this 12Z party started!

[tpweather]

So far 06z euro Aifs stays the same FWIW
IMG_1229.png

Awesome track for us!

Almost perfect and that scares me lol

[tron777]

All right let’s get this 12Z party started!

9Z SREF may already be out if someone could check the plumes and report in. Then it's on to the NAM.