Absolute Vorticity

What impact does the situation in California play if at all in our weather patterns here? Terrible seeing the devastation there from those fires!

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:08 am What impact does the situation in California play if at all in our weather patterns here? Terrible seeing the devastation there from those fires!

They have a ridge of high pressure over them with Santa Ana winds. That is why we are cold with the trough over us.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:38 am

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:36 am

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

snow breeds snow. in good years like what you are having it snows when its not even suppose to. iv'e had those type of winters before

I agree. Every system seems to be on steroids in those types of years. Almost every storm will produce more snow than modeled.

I was surprised at the 1/2"+ I saw when I got up this morning that is for sure. I was only expecting some flurries.

Here's a typical example of what can happen in these patterns that the models don't pick up on. That band by Louisville. Looks like a couple, three inches to me. Very slow moving.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:46 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:38 am

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:36 am

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

snow breeds snow. in good years like what you are having it snows when its not even suppose to. iv'e had those type of winters before

I agree. Every system seems to be on steroids in those types of years. Almost every storm will produce more snow than modeled.

I was surprised at the 1/2"+ I saw when I got up this morning that is for sure. I was only expecting some flurries.

Here's a typical example of what can happen in these patterns that the models don't pick up on. That band by Louisville. Looks like a couple, three inches to me. Very slow moving.

i saw some 1" reports under that band.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:08 am What impact does the situation in California play if at all in our weather patterns here? Terrible seeing the devastation there from those fires!

My folks and I have some lifelong friends who are in Orange Co. near Los Angeles Co. Prayers and thoughts with all impacted! 5 have died and several others injured.

I sure hope that none of these fires are arson-related e.g. Or from someone carelessly having tossed a still lit cigarette or cigar butt e.g.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/rick-caruso- ... nhpriver_2

Sadly, CA blue wave politics including environmental mismanagement, not surprising, has a lot to do with this massive disaster, too.

Both CVG / DAY reached 25 and CMH 26 today.

26 here today, down to 20 now. We'll see how low we can go tonight. As usual, it will depend on cloud cover.

What are we looking like for Sunday -monday?

Drottlawn wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 7:19 pm What are we looking like for Sunday -monday?

Sunday is fine. Upper 20s to low 30s for the high. A weak clipper moves thru Sun night into very early Monday. So far, this one is too far north for anything decent here. Only expecting a dusting at this time. Monday's high is about the same as Sunday but then we drop for the rest of the week behind it back into the deep freeze. Our next shot to get above freezing is towards the end of next week or next weekend.

I am at 1 degree right now, CVG is at 6. I wonder if I can get to zero or below?

Just had a first for me on the drive in . Drove through several banks of dense fog in east clermont and temps near zero. I really wasn’t sure what I was seeing coming up on the first one .

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 7:04 am I am at 1 degree right now, CVG is at 6. I wonder if I can get to zero or below?

I checked around just now and its 0 at Lunken Field where Mike Groenke works.

HAPPY 62ND BIRTHDAY RON!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Currently 9 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 22 today.

Looking way down the road in about 9 days or so, models are bringing in our next significant system. We do try and warm up with this system before heading back into the arctic plunge. Models continue to go back and forth between a snow storm or rain ending as flakes. Today's 12Z GFS is a high end snow storm for most of the region. We'll have to wait and see if that high is pressing in from Canada further south to keep the warm air at bay. Otherwise, it will be a cutter and we'll rain. I have no idea which solution is right. I would lean rainier right now but with a large snowpack, we could also see the cold regime win out too. Flip a coin! But anyway, this is the next time period to watch.

Here is the 12Z GFS at CVG for the 18th. 9 days out but I wanted to post it so everyone can get their thinking toques on for this one. If we can snow with this one, we will be rivaling one of the snowiest January's ever at Cincinnati. 31.5" from January of 1978 is King for us. CVG has 11.1" for the month. If the 18th pans out the record will certainly be breakable.

Les nice to look down the road and I do believe the cold getting in here later this month is even colder. Nice to see a warm up for a few days and when you pattern like this a warm up for a few days and talking 40's and more cold in the works stronger storms happen often. We may be busier the last 3rd of the month than we have the 1st 3rd which is hard to believe. Still believe February will turn milder but will address later this month

Already seeing major gutter damage due to ice damming. Going to be a lot people seeing our beautiful snow in a different light

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 11:58 am Les nice to look down the road and I do believe the cold getting in here later this month is even colder. Nice to see a warm up for a few days and when you pattern like this a warm up for a few days and talking 40's and more cold in the works stronger storms happen often. We may be busier the last 3rd of the month than we have the 1st 3rd which is hard to believe. Still believe February will turn milder but will address later this month

I agree Tim... the last portion of the month could be brutally cold, much colder then we have been seeing. If we can maintain a deep snowpack and get some clear skies, we'll tank big time! The 18th system will be important to see what happens with that snow pack. I also think Feb will turn milder but the early month indications are turning colder once again per the Euro weeklies.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:03 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 11:58 am Les nice to look down the road and I do believe the cold getting in here later this month is even colder. Nice to see a warm up for a few days and when you pattern like this a warm up for a few days and talking 40's and more cold in the works stronger storms happen often. We may be busier the last 3rd of the month than we have the 1st 3rd which is hard to believe. Still believe February will turn milder but will address later this month

I agree Tim... the last portion of the month could be brutally cold, much colder then we have been seeing. If we can maintain a deep snowpack and get some clear skies, we'll tank big time! The 18th system will be important to see what happens with that snow pack. I also think Feb will turn milder but the early month indications are turning colder once again per the Euro weeklies.

Les lets go for the snowfall record for January. Bgoney I understood your concerns as well with what damage can be done with ice and snow. I hate to see any damage done but as we know all kinds of weather can bring problems.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:02 pm Already seeing major gutter damage due to ice damming. Going to be a lot people seeing our beautiful snow in a different light

Yeah... damage from the ice and snow. icicles are forming now, wait until those melt! Always a risk of falling, cardiac issues for folks etc. Winter is a beautiful time of year but it can be tough for some folks. I hope the gutter damage is not at your place Bgoney.

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:04 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:03 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 11:58 am Les nice to look down the road and I do believe the cold getting in here later this month is even colder. Nice to see a warm up for a few days and when you pattern like this a warm up for a few days and talking 40's and more cold in the works stronger storms happen often. We may be busier the last 3rd of the month than we have the 1st 3rd which is hard to believe. Still believe February will turn milder but will address later this month

I agree Tim... the last portion of the month could be brutally cold, much colder then we have been seeing. If we can maintain a deep snowpack and get some clear skies, we'll tank big time! The 18th system will be important to see what happens with that snow pack. I also think Feb will turn milder but the early month indications are turning colder once again per the Euro weeklies.

Les lets go for the snowfall record for January. Bgoney I understood your concerns as well with what damage can be done with ice and snow. I hate to see any damage done but as we know all kinds of weather can bring problems.

I'm ready to rock n roll! It maybe a long time before we see a wonderful pattern like this again!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:05 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:02 pm Already seeing major gutter damage due to ice damming. Going to be a lot people seeing our beautiful snow in a different light

Yeah... damage from the ice and snow. icicles are forming now, wait until those melt! Always a risk of falling, cardiac issues for folks etc. Winter is a beautiful time of year but it can be tough for some folks. I hope the gutter damage is not at your place Bgoney.

lol , I haven’t had time to look at mine

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:59 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:05 pm

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Jan 09, 2025 12:02 pm Already seeing major gutter damage due to ice damming. Going to be a lot people seeing our beautiful snow in a different light

Yeah... damage from the ice and snow. icicles are forming now, wait until those melt! Always a risk of falling, cardiac issues for folks etc. Winter is a beautiful time of year but it can be tough for some folks. I hope the gutter damage is not at your place Bgoney.

lol , I haven’t had time to look at mine

10-4! Your customers are keeping you hopping I am sure and for the foreseeable future too. Glad to see you making some coin though!

I took a look at the Ensemble models and the 500 MB pattern virtually remains unchanged out to 16 days. The Western North American ridge stays put by and large near or just off the Coast. That has always been a perfect spot for the OV. So far, as long as these short waves can keep producing in this pattern a January to Remember is within reach. MJO is going to be coming out of the COD and perhaps touch 8 but mainly Phases 1 and 2 for the next couple of weeks. Phase 3 after that which isn't bad. Then do we warm up in Feb with Phase 4 or go back into the neutral circle again which would prolong a colder look to the pattern? Stay tuned there...

CPC 8-14 day analogs include 1963 weighted 3 times, 1999, 2009, and 1994. 1999 had a big Midwest storm and we had a couple of notable events that winter too. 2009 and 1994 were tremendous with wintry weather and cold for the OV. 1963 was mild 1st half of the month and cold / snowy the second half. 9" fell during the back half of Jan 1963!