Scattered snow showers have moved into the area. Actual snow squalls were located back across Central IN so we will monitor those as the evening wears on. After 8pm or so, the game should be over then we are just cold.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2024 4:31 pm
by tron777
SPC mesopage shows the snow squall parameter is good N of the River.
snsq.gif
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2024 5:00 pm
by MVWxObserver
Both CVG / DAY got to 36 and CMH 40 today.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2024 5:07 pm
by tron777
1.1" at CVG per the 5pm climate report. I'm impressed!
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2024 5:11 pm
by MVWxObserver
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Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2024 6:10 pm
by Bgoney
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2024 5:07 pm
1.1" at CVG per the 5pm climate report. I'm impressed!
Cvg hit the jackpot cause traveling around a lot of the tri-state today, a dusting was the rule
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2024 6:23 pm
by Bgoney
Oh my! An obscene 8-14 day outlook. Lol , those interns.
IMG_2810.gif
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2024 9:05 pm
by House of Cards
This is f'n NICE!!!!!!! Quick 1/2-1" already, still coming down at a good clip. Had my Work Christmas Party here in the Basement Pub, and went to take out the garbage after everyone left, and all of a sudden BOOM! and it's been snowing gangbusters for the last 10-15 minutes or so. So festive!
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Wed Dec 11, 2024 11:09 pm
by fyrfyter
The flash freeze we got tonight is awful. Everything untreated is covered in ice. I just drove from Springdale to Green Twp- white knuckling most of it.
There’s a 6 call pileup E275 at Cross County in Colerain. There is a destroyed police car in the median.
Good morning! Grab some coffee and here is DT with another This Week in Weather:
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 4:35 am
by tron777
I did not see any overnight snow shower action here. Cold thru Fri then by Sat we look good during the day as we warm into the U40s, maybe 50. Then rain moves in late in the day and ends on Sunday. I think another 0.25 to 0.50" is possible. Mild wx continues into next week with rain chances still hanging around. We will cool down again by mid to late next week. The pattern continues to look active also. Any snow prospects TBD. Still too early to know for sure. Right now, I see rain this weekend, around Tues of next week and probably one more then we cool off again.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 4:43 am
by airwolf76
^ Just watched DT new video. he is pretty much on the same page as us. looking at potential next weekend or Christmas week. sure get me in the mood . been seeing flurries flying around all night. no accumulation though
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 5:45 am
by tron777
airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2024 4:43 am
^ Just watched DT new video. he is pretty much on the same page as us. looking at potential next weekend or Christmas week. sure get me in the mood . been seeing flurries flying around all night. no accumulation though
It is certainly looking more interesting Charles esp towards the end of next week / next weekend. Foreign models look more promising then the American models. That is usually a good sign lol
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 6:42 am
by Bgoney
IMG_2811.jpeg
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 7:09 am
by tron777
Please let me know if this link does not work as I am posting from the customer side. I found this posted over on American Wx. If the link does work, then this is good news showing that the MJO gets to Phase 7 by the end of the year, and should be at a nice amplitude to get us into Phase 8 and beyond for mid to late January. Of correct, we could have a cold and stormy month! DT mentioned it in his video too. The below graphic is another way of looking at it.
fyrfyter wrote: ↑Wed Dec 11, 2024 11:09 pm
The flash freeze we got tonight is awful. Everything untreated is covered in ice. I just drove from Springdale to Green Twp- white knuckling most of it.
There’s a 6 call pileup E275 at Cross County in Colerain. There is a destroyed police car in the median.
Could hear all the equipment responding to that one; actually not sure we didn't hear the actual crash too, wife and I were watching TV and thought we heard a sort of a boom. Not long after heard non-stop sirens. Happened around 10pm or so. Hope everyone is OK.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 8:24 am
by Bgoney
SOI has been coming down and 850 wind anomalies are slowly relaxing, so eastward movement from MJO is inevitable. However I disagree atm with the amplitude being shown in the long range . Still good news for winter prospects
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 8:30 am
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2024 8:24 am
SOI has been coming down and 850 wind anomalies are slowly relaxing, so eastward movement from MJO is inevitable. However I disagree atm with the amplitude being shown in the long range . Still good news for winter prospects
It is good news.... and we have an interesting model battle shaping up for the intensity of the MJO. GEFS and CFS have gone bonkers with its strength (relatively speaking) while the Euro and Aussies keep it much weaker. What I find interesting though with regards to the long term pattern is that it is very El Ninoish with an Aleutian Low. We have an active N stream (which is La Ninaish) but some action in the STJ too (El Ninoish). If we can get some phasing, then some bigger storms will be possible. Not sure though on that since the NAO does not look to be very negative at all. But with the active N stream, a supply of cold air and some upper lows / clippers will be lurking about. After the 20th is still looking very interesting to me.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 12, 2024 8:24 am
SOI has been coming down and 850 wind anomalies are slowly relaxing, so eastward movement from MJO is inevitable. However I disagree atm with the amplitude being shown in the long range . Still good news for winter prospects
It is good news.... and we have an interesting model battle shaping up for the intensity of the MJO. GEFS and CFS have gone bonkers with its strength (relatively speaking) while the Euro and Aussies keep it much weaker. What I find interesting though with regards to the long term pattern is that it is very El Ninoish with an Aleutian Low. We have an active N stream (which is La Ninaish) but some action in the STJ too (El Ninoish). If we can get some phasing, then some bigger storms will be possible. Not sure though on that since the NAO does not look to be very negative at all. But with the active N stream, a supply of cold air and some upper lows / clippers will be lurking about. After the 20th is still looking very interesting to me.
A couple of Reasons for not believing the amplitude of the GFS atm , is because some of its ensembles are skewing the mean with them immediately bolting off the chart in 6 and I’m confident that isn’t happening . Also can’t ignore the cooler waters in the Pacific phases that usually temper a the amplitude.
IMG_2812.jpeg
IMG_2813.png
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 9:37 am
by dce
What would be the difference from the map posted above by Bgoney and this map from the NOAA? Just trying to figure this out.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 9:38 am
by dce
Going by either map, not looking at the actual numeric readings that determine La Nina or a neutral Enso state, it sure looks like a La Nina to this untrained eye.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 9:42 am
by tron777
I think both sites calculate the SST's differently but the main idea is the same. We'll have to wait and see if this officially gets classified as a La Nina or cold ENSO neutral. Either way, it may not make a lot of difference since if it does get classified as a Nina, it'll be weak anyway.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 9:43 am
by tron777
In the short term, a band of light snow is expected to move into our N counties later today. Up to 1" is possible along and North of I-70 so keep that in mind if you live in this area or have to travel to the north later on. Dry and cold for the rest of us today.
Re: December 2024 Weather Discussion
Posted: Thu Dec 12, 2024 9:49 am
by MVWxObserver
Currently 12 here in G'ville up a couple degrees from earlier. Progged to top out at around 23 today.
