Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
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I think the Gingkos are just a bit smaller than the oaks. But those definitely do not like going through the leaf loader. They won't really grind and clogged up the hose some. loltron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:54 amOaks have big leaves too but if I recall, gingko leaves are even bigger so those have to be a pain to grind up.
Thanks for the correction JP! Glad to see your area get some rain too. I know you all have been hurting this year for moisture.young pup wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 5:04 pmI think the Gingkos are just a bit smaller than the oaks. But those definitely do not like going through the leaf loader. They won't really grind and clogged up the hose some. loltron777 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 10, 2024 10:54 amOaks have big leaves too but if I recall, gingko leaves are even bigger so those have to be a pain to grind up.
Back to weather, 1.10 inches here. It's a start.
Bgoney you made me glance at the models early this morning . Snowstorm in the plains and no doubt that happens quite often in mid-late November but the Hurricane in Florida not so much. I am sticking to what I said about Rafael and how some models and mets a few weeks ago got all excited as some runs showed this Hurricane hitting the mainland USA. Can it happen and sure but again I do play the odds on this once again and more likely just a strong storm with tons of tropical moisture. I just hope it waits until after the 22nd to throw moisture northward since next week I will in Hilton Head
The Ensembles and AI all have a version of a -EPO. Love seeing a trough NE of Hawaii with ridging occurring over Eastern AK and Western Canada. That is the EPO domain and it does look negative to me in the extended range. If this can build in as shown (esp on the AI), then we would have a more prolonged period of below normal temps. Very interesting look coming up if it's correct.Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:27 am That cool down starting around the 21st is pretty much a lock. The degree and length remains a question. The AI has what looks to me like a temporary-EPO to go with that period, so if that happened a below normal temp period would result. Kind of hard to tell on ensembles if a -EPO develops since at that range highs and lows get washed out .
Les I love seeing the trough NE of Hawaii almost always and with the ridging over eastern Alaska and Western Canada that is a good look for us. Though Alaska is going to be colder over the next 10 days its more a normal cold for them and this is good news. Looks like we are getting busier and finally after really a slow period for several months and Hurricanes that hit the USA were really the only stories we talked about except for the warm and dry conditions.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:36 amThe Ensembles and AI all have a version of a -EPO. Love seeing a trough NE of Hawaii with ridging occurring over Eastern AK and Western Canada. That is the EPO domain and it does look negative to me in the extended range. If this can build in as shown (esp on the AI), then we would have a more prolonged period of below normal temps. Very interesting look coming up if it's correct.Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:27 am That cool down starting around the 21st is pretty much a lock. The degree and length remains a question. The AI has what looks to me like a temporary-EPO to go with that period, so if that happened a below normal temp period would result. Kind of hard to tell on ensembles if a -EPO develops since at that range highs and lows get washed out .
The trough NE of Hawaii would also be indicative of a -WPO. When you get the -WPO / -EPO combo, the colder pattern can sometimes be more sustainable. The last few winters -EPO's were hard to come by and when we got one it was transient thanks to the WPO being positive. The extended range models show a much more favorable Pacific pattern on last night's runs. Hoping that it pans out!tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:46 amLes I love seeing the trough NE of Hawaii almost always and with the ridging over eastern Alaska and Western Canada that is a good look for us. Though Alaska is going to be colder over the next 10 days its more a normal cold for them and this is good news. Looks like we are getting busier and finally after really a slow period for several months and Hurricanes that hit the USA were really the only stories we talked about except for the warm and dry conditions.tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:36 amThe Ensembles and AI all have a version of a -EPO. Love seeing a trough NE of Hawaii with ridging occurring over Eastern AK and Western Canada. That is the EPO domain and it does look negative to me in the extended range. If this can build in as shown (esp on the AI), then we would have a more prolonged period of below normal temps. Very interesting look coming up if it's correct.Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 6:27 am That cool down starting around the 21st is pretty much a lock. The degree and length remains a question. The AI has what looks to me like a temporary-EPO to go with that period, so if that happened a below normal temp period would result. Kind of hard to tell on ensembles if a -EPO develops since at that range highs and lows get washed out .
The MJO definitely got further along than I thought it would. Another good sign, or at least a better one.
Tim mentioned it too and I am echoing it also, but we'll just have to wait and see if it stays on the weaker side, goes into the COD, etc. That should help us in figuring out how long the cooler pattern lasts around Thanksgiving and beyond.
Logan has a wife Cahyluh (pronounced like Kayla) and they have a 6 yr old daughter Khloe.I agree Tim , it’s slim pickings for large arctic air masses and what there has been so far, has been brief in general. I know it’s only mid November, but for certain parts of the world not seeing the buildup, it’s getting latetpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:09 am Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy
I third these posts. It's nice to see our pattern gradually turning more active, but I still see no arctic air invasions as of yet. Even after the 20th, that air mass doesn't look arctic for us. It will turn much cooler, if not even a little below avg but It is still not arctic in origin. Maybe after that, an air mass will be.Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:17 amI agree Tim , it’s slim pickings for large arctic air masses and what there has been so far, has been brief in general. I know it’s only mid November, but for certain parts of the world not seeing the buildup, it’s getting latetpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:09 am Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy
Les I still believe the coldest of air will end up in the northeast as a -nao will help us but with the polar regions not that cold except Greenland which has been cold almost all year and below normal and that is where we may need to tap the cold air like Europe is doing. The pacific is not finished and we should see several milder episodes this winter but I keep watching the northeast to fight back and we stay on that western edge several times as well and with a fight that is why I believe precip will be above normal this winter though I like it better if the ground is not frozen to get rainfall but if its snow then I want the ground frozen loltron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:21 amI third these posts. It's nice to see our pattern gradually turning more active, but I still see no arctic air invasions as of yet. Even after the 20th, that air mass doesn't look arctic for us. It will turn much cooler, if not even a little below avg but It is still not arctic in origin. Maybe after that, an air mass will be.Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:17 amI agree Tim , it’s slim pickings for large arctic air masses and what there has been so far, has been brief in general. I know it’s only mid November, but for certain parts of the world not seeing the buildup, it’s getting latetpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:09 am Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy
Tim I agree with you with regards to this first push of cooler air. In fact, don't be surprised if some kind of a Nor' Easter forms before we get to Thanksgiving.tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:32 amLes I still believe the coldest of air will end up in the northeast as a -nao will help us but with the polar regions not that cold except Greenland which has been cold almost all year and below normal and that is where we may need to tap the cold air like Europe is doing. The pacific is not finished and we should see several milder episodes this winter but I keep watching the northeast to fight back and we stay on that western edge several times as well and with a fight that is why I believe precip will be above normal this winter though I like it better if the ground is not frozen to get rainfall but if its snow then I want the ground frozen loltron777 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:21 amI third these posts. It's nice to see our pattern gradually turning more active, but I still see no arctic air invasions as of yet. Even after the 20th, that air mass doesn't look arctic for us. It will turn much cooler, if not even a little below avg but It is still not arctic in origin. Maybe after that, an air mass will be.Bgoney wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:17 amI agree Tim , it’s slim pickings for large arctic air masses and what there has been so far, has been brief in general. I know it’s only mid November, but for certain parts of the world not seeing the buildup, it’s getting latetpweather wrote: ↑Mon Nov 11, 2024 8:09 am Great maps. You look across the globe and really the only place beside Alaska and western USA that is below normal is Europe as Asia for the most part is milder than normal and even the polar regions though cold nothing to write home about this time of year. With such a late period getting the polar regions cold I am interested in seeing how this pans out as we head into winter. Sure we have had some late starts to cold in the polar region but I don't remember one that started this late. Must make for lost time is my guess and Mother Nature will figured it out as always. She is so busy
I hate those. lol Got some maples that still have some left.