Absolute Vorticity

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tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2024 10:56 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2024 10:39 am When you look at the regional radar across the country our tri-state has the largest widespread moderate to heavy rainfall on it! It's Just funny!! LOL

Isn't it great? Biggest rains IMBY in a very long time!

Hope for more development later this afternoon, visible shows peaks of sun over most of IN moving in this way.

An update from the boys as of 11am:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Forecast is on track as of the morning update, with showers and
a few rumbles of thunder decreasing and shifting off to the east
through midday. Behind the departing precipitation, decreasing
clouds are noted on the latest METSAT imagery moving into the
western reaches of our CWA. This should allow diurnal heating to
destabilize our atmosphere. While we don`t have an obvious
forcing mechanism to produce widespread storms this afternoon,
we do have some enhanced winds aloft ahead of the low spinning
over the Upper Midwest. These winds will set us up with 30-35
knots of effective bulk shear per HRRR mesoanalysis... to go
along with around 2000J of SBCAPE by late afternoon. CAMs
aren`t overly aggressive with storm coverage, so have opted to
keep chance PoPs through the day. Will continue to monitor the
threat of a few intense storms with potential for damaging winds
based on the factors discussed above.

.75” total here in Indian hill. The best kind of rain being mostly light to moderate the whole time

Good Afternoon and been busy the last few days but ready to get back in the saddle. I see we got to 90 both the last two days and that is where you get those last minute 90 degrees is when you are south and east of a decent cold front plus the ground is rather dry. So far this 1.08 inches here so very happy and would love to see some more over the next few days. Does this rain improve the some of the local drought conditions and the answer is yes and once you get into mid-August through September getting a decent rain like we saw this morning is so helpful and one reason less daylight hours plus normally your not seeing the higher temps you see in mid-summer. Of course ever better in September but even mid-August it helps. At the half way point of the month and we are dead on temp wise and after today's rain we should be very close to normal . Is the heat gone for the season and no but not seeing any longer term heat and really to get that later this month and into September you need a very busy tropical output and especially ones further west towards the western gulf coast. Still will be fun to see all the totals in the Ohio Valley once we get through Sunday. My guess is the further east you live over the next couple of days the better shot of more rain but everyone still has a chance and yes many times scattered so not everyone getting the beneficial rains but once again normally that is what we see in mid-August without a tropical system. Next week looks great with another shot of Canadian air and once again dew points getting into the lower 50's for a few days.

0.50 IMBY

As most know I love looking at weather around the world and this time lets look at winter and no not here but the southern hemisphere. Been a rather cold winter down there with South Africa,Southern half of South America and Australia having below normal temps. Part of this was the SSWE that happen which is rare at the south pole. So yes Mother Nature trying to balance things out and this time it happened in the southern hemisphere.

1.01" at CVG as of 12pm.... Awesome!! Hope the rest of you that needed some rain was able to cash in today.

Tim... thanks for making that point on those sneaky last minute 90s. I will update the contest thread as I had 89 for CVG yesterday and I see the overnight climate report updated the high for yesterday to 90.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2024 12:10 pm As most know I love looking at weather around the world and this time lets look at winter and no not here but the southern hemisphere. Been a rather cold winter down there with South Africa,Southern half of South America and Australia having below normal temps. Part of this was the SSWE that happen which is rare at the south pole. So yes Mother Nature trying to balance things out and this time it happened in the southern hemisphere.

This probably belongs in our winter thoughts thread, but I am curious to see what impact, if any, that the South Pole SSWE will have on the PV for the Northern Atmospheric winter and / or any high latitude blocking. A wait and see game here to have this question answered.

0.71" is the total at the Boone Co mesonet site. It looks like many people cashed in today! Temps are slowly recovering into the U70s now with dews in the low 70s. CAPE values to the west over Central IN are in the 2000 J/Kg range so we'll see if any scattered action can pop later today.

Will need to watch the next few hours as some showers and maybe a thundershower have developed about 50 miles west of CVG. Again not everyone will cash in but we have had some sun so this may help in keeping those going until 7p or so.

Scattered cells missing me to the NW and south. Glad to have cashed in earlier for sure. 84 looks to be my high for today.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2024 4:22 pm Scattered cells missing me to the NW and south. Glad to have cashed in earlier for sure. 84 looks to be my high for today.

The tail end of those cells just NW of my area may form some more cells and skirt my area of western Ham after 6 or so, we'll see??

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2024 5:02 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 16, 2024 4:22 pm Scattered cells missing me to the NW and south. Glad to have cashed in earlier for sure. 84 looks to be my high for today.

The tail end of those cells just NW of my area may form some more cells and skirt my area of western Ham after 6 or so, we'll see??

I'm not expecting anything down here, but you might get clipped. It's a close call lol

CVG reached 86, DAY 87 and CMH 85 today.

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Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Southwest wind 9 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

I know we all need the liquid gold and am very thankful for it but for up this way am hoping for a lull later this morning as a ceremony dedication for a special surprise garden that a gentleman hired a crew to make in honor of his mother and stepfather will take place at 10 o'clock. His mother and stepfather reside in the retirement village neighborhood where my folks and I are. The son / stepson is a landscaper like is Bgoney e.g.

Good morning all! SPC has a marginal risk out for folks NW of I-71 and a slight risk out for folks SE of I-71 for this afternoon and evening. Depending on how much CAPE we can build up of course will be key. For this morning, it is very humid and sticky out as dews are in the 70s. Latest radar has a few isolated showers that continue to fall apart and weaken from last night's activity that occurred well to our NW. We should see some sunshine later this morning. I can't really see the visible satellite just yet., Should be able to in another hour or so. Highs today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tomorrow, expect clouds and some rain showers with the upper low / cold front. Highs should stay in the 70s as a result. Then we are dry all next week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s! The low to mid 80s return towards the end of next week. Humidity will remain low all of next week as well. A good time to make outdoor plans for sure and / or get any outdoor projects that need tending too. Yardwork as well, or a golf game (AHEM Tim. Dry weather may extend on into next weekend too. I'm not seeing any rain until the last few days of the month.

As a side note... I'm wondering if lows can reach into the upper 40s Tues and Wed mornings next week for folks NE of Cincinnati in the usual rural valleys. If we have anyone that lives in those areas, let us know your low temps next week. Thanks!

Good Morning Les and yes I will be playing golf twice next week and almost perfect weather. Les your forecast looks great and the only thing I add is concerning what I see beyond the next week or so. That pattern looks to be changing somewhat and we should start to see a late August pattern which means you start to see some fall type weather in the northwest and then the northern plains. This means some rain for them but the start of the turn to fall weather for them. This also can put us in warm to even hot period the last week of August and we sort of see that starting to play out next weekend. This is common but its part of the way to head to fall.

tpweather wrote: ↑Sat Aug 17, 2024 7:17 am Good Morning Les and yes I will be playing golf twice next week and almost perfect weather. Les your forecast looks great and the only thing I add is concerning what I see beyond the next week or so. That pattern looks to be changing somewhat and we should start to see a late August pattern which means you start to see some fall type weather in the northwest and then the northern plains. This means some rain for them but the start of the turn to fall weather for them. This also can put us in warm to even hot period the last week of August and we sort of see that starting to play out next weekend. This is common but its part of the way to head to fall.

Hey Tim, good morning! You maybe right. We could have one more hot period again. Ensemble guidance is a little sketchy that far out and I've seen evidence for both our current cool shot like pattern continuing and some runs are warmer. Currently the EPS and GEFS warm us up the last few days of August but as we start September, we are back to our fall like pattern of next week. We should gain some more clarity on this in another week or so.

Outside of CVGs surrounding counties, most in the drought areas(aka, south of 71) received very little rain yesterday, anywhere from nothing to about half an inch. So hopefully more of the drought effected areas can get some action today before more extended dryness sets in