Absolute Vorticity

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0351.html


Mesoscale Discussion 0351
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

Areas affected...Portions of far southern IL into western/northern
KY...southern IN...and southwestern OH

Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...76...

Valid 021928Z - 022100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75, 76 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across western Kentucky and southern
Indiana should continue to pose some severe risk this afternoon.
Downstream watch issuance will eventually be needed. Tornadoes,
large hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. A strong tornado
may also occur with any supercell that can be sustained.

DISCUSSION...Convection has generally struggled to intensify this
afternoon in far southern IL/western KY along a pre-frontal
trough/wind shift line. Still, the airmass downstream is attempting
to destabilize in the wake of earlier convection across parts of
northern KY and southern IN. Visible satellite imagery shows some
clearing across this area, with surface temperatures gradually
warming into the 70s in the vicinity of the Ohio River. The
low-level airmass is also slowly moistening as the outflow boundary
from morning thunderstorms becomes less well defined, with surface
dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s. Enhanced deep-layer
shear of 50-60 kt will support supercells with associated hail
threat, if any can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Otherwise,
favorable low-level shear, with effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2,
will also foster a tornado risk assuming robust thunderstorms can be
sustained. A strong tornado appears possible given the strength of
the low-level flow/shear shown in recent VWPs from KLVX. Damaging
winds remain a possibility with any small clusters. Given current
observational trends and gradual destabilization occurring
downstream of the ongoing activity, a downstream Tornado Watch into
parts of central KY, southern IN, and southwestern OH will likely be
needed before the scheduled 20Z expiration of WW 75.

..Gleason.. 04/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38058774 38998711 39328656 39608544 39638422 39128378
38558394 37968431 37498472 36918625 36858829 37358861
38058774

Been following from Key West…thanks for the updates…..

Yes Les….. fishing….. lots of Mahi and Grouper :and sand shark!

April sun is doing wonders. Rapid recovery.

Tornado watch for the area until 10:00 pm

There it is.

MattD41 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:42 pm Been following from Key West…thanks for the updates…..

Yes Les….. fishing….. lots of Mahi and Grouper :and sand shark!

When my folks and I lived in NC, my Dad and I went on a chartered fishing trip out of Morehead City, NC and caught some Grouper.

Currently 61 with a DP of 61 here in G'ville.

MattD41 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 3:42 pm Been following from Key West…thanks for the updates…..

Yes Les….. fishing….. lots of Mahi and Grouper :and sand shark!

Awesome Matt! Hope you are having a great time (sure sounds like it)!

72 with a dew of 65 here. I think we've recovered nicely lol

From the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
The best chance for severe storms will be late this afternoon
into this evening, especially for the Tri-State, as a moist,
unstable airmass advects quickly in from the southwest. All
hazards are a concern, damaging winds, large hail, possible
tornadoes as the environment will be conducive to supercells and
rotating updrafts. The severe threat will also exist elsewhere,
but may be somewhat less as instability starts to wane this
evening ahead of an advancing cold front. We have also had some
heavy rain today, especially the northern half of the CWFA,
which has resulted in some short fused flooding and flooding
rivers. Will continue Flood Watch until 03Z, or 11 pm EDT for
the entire region. Watch will likely be trimmed once the cold
front passes by.

For the overnight period, CAA will ensue behind the cold front.
There will be a "dry slot" in the wake of the front where pcpn
should end. However, low level moisture will advect in from the
northwest, bringing considerable stratocumulus clouds. Winds
will be from the west/southwest between 10 and 20 mph with gusts
between 25 and 35 mph. Lows will range from the mid 30s east to
the lower 40s west.

Anyone remember the last time the tristate had a Moderate SWPC probablity?

My stream has started.

My son got upgraded to a winter storm warning with 5-8 inches and winds that could reach 45 mph. Blizzard northeast of him.

what do you guys think about that cell out over Madison, IN? Everything else looks like it's part of the congealed line right now.

Watching the line of storms out to the west but also looking for any lone cell that can form out in front of the line and those can sometimes have a better shot of a tornado.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:16 pm My son got upgraded to a winter storm warning with 5-8 inches and winds that could reach 45 mph. Blizzard northeast of him.

Hi Tim,

So much for your grandkids Spring break lol.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:23 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:16 pm My son got upgraded to a winter storm warning with 5-8 inches and winds that could reach 45 mph. Blizzard northeast of him.

Hi Tim,

So much for your grandkids Spring break lol.

Hey Eric, their spring break was last week and got over a foot of snow and then this storm looks to provide another 5-8 inches. They had such a nice winter in terms of mild weather and little snow but making up for lost time.

Spacejunk wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:13 pm Anyone remember the last time the tristate had a Moderate SWPC probablity?

March of 2012 if I recall? Back then, a moderate risk was a level 2 on a three tiered system. Today would have been a high risk day back then lol

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:16 pm My son got upgraded to a winter storm warning with 5-8 inches and winds that could reach 45 mph. Blizzard northeast of him.

Awesome! I am jealous!

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:27 pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:16 pm My son got upgraded to a winter storm warning with 5-8 inches and winds that could reach 45 mph. Blizzard northeast of him.

Awesome! I am jealous!

Same here Les but they need the precip whether its rain or snow that is a good sign heading into spring.

Big jump for NKY

House of Cards wrote: ↑Tue Apr 02, 2024 4:22 pm what do you guys think about that cell out over Madison, IN? Everything else looks like it's part of the congealed line right now.

It's trying to develop into something but it's having a hard time.

CAPE of 1500 J/kg now into NKY. VTP is at a 3, 4 over SE IN. Supercell comp index at an 8, 12 for NE KY counties. Scattered DCAPE pockets of 800 (would prefer a thousand) Shear is very high and helicity is mod to strong. Mid level lapse rates will work at a 7 but low level lapse rates are still poor. Not sure if that will factor in or will the forcing with this front be all you need anyway. I am thinking the later.

Surface low is now at 990 MB just S of Chicago. With this thing continuing to strengthen, the lift and energy will be tremendous with this system. I think we need to keep doing what we're doing, then once the front passes you're in the clear.

Those cells over IN to the West have t-storm warnings for wind and hail associated with them.

Pretty cool visible shot showing the incoming storms. You can clearly see the cold front too over extreme Western IN. This system is moving in during peak heating. Could you imagine what would have happened if the second round did not come thru and we stayed sunny longer? Wow... it could have gotten very bad, very fast. I think that is going to help some. However, conditions are still favorable for all modes of severe wx per my last post on the current severe wx parameters that we still have in place. We've got a 3-4 hour window left to remain diligent then we should be able to get some sleep and rest.

Clap ON / clap OFF with "Clapper"!

Tornado west of Louisville