March 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

65 now... 12Z GFS is not too impressive for anyone with this next system. Granted it is a global model versus a mesoscale or hi-res model. We'll see... Again, I'd like to see the HRRR get some back up but I have yet to see anything else agree with it as of this post anyway.

[tron777]

69 as of 2pm at CVG.... let's see how high we can go with plentiful sunshine across the area. No changes to the newly issued Day 2 Outlook for tomorrow. Marginal risk for our NW counties pretty much.

[tron777]

I hit 73 earlier today, down to 72 now.

[tron777]

18Z HRRR looks decent still for the Metro and points north for strong to severe storms tomorrow afternoon in that 3-4pm window. Then we get a weakening area of rain and storms Thurs night and scattered showers to wrap up the event Fri afternoon. 18Z NAM weakens the afternoon batch entirely so nothing for tomorrow then Thurs night and Fri the model agrees with the HRRR for that period. It's a toss up for tomorrow IMO.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 72, DAY 73 and CMH 71 on Wed.

[Trevor]

The HRRR looks scary for areas north of Cincinnati this evening. Multiple supercells.

[tron777]

Watch boxes are out in MO and ILL this morning. SPC has slight and marginal risks up now for all posters. Best threat is still north of Cincinnati IMO, but if the HRRR is right, we all stand a chance at that line coming thru this afternoon.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

The HRRR has been very consistent too. To my knowledge, the NAM still isn't showing anything until tonight. So I guess the HRRR is really going to score here or it will look silly. We'll know by lunch time. The boys had this to say:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Another warm day is expected ahead of low pressure and a cold
front that are forecast to cross the region on Friday.

For the morning hours, low level moist ascent at the nose of a
925 mb-850 mb low level jet will bring the threat of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to west central Ohio. These storms will
be elevated in nature, so only some small hail is expected.

For this afternoon, high resolution convective allowing models
indicate that a linear convective line of showers and
thunderstorms will traverse the region, likely weakening as it
makes its way into our eastern zones. Some surface based
instability is expected with this line, but the severe threat
appears to be marginal given lower level CAPE values. In any
case, this will have to be watched, and certainly some strong
storms may still occur.

The greatest potential for severe weather is slated for late
this afternoon into this evening. As low pressure and a cold
front approach our region from the west. Low level moisture
convergence will increase across northern Indiana and northwest
Ohio. This will likely result in the development of
thunderstorms, some of which may be supercellular given
substantial deep layered shear (both 0-3 km and 0-6 km), turning
hodographs, ample 0-1 km SRHs, and SBCAPES approaching 1000
J/kg. Hence, SPC has outlooked parts of east central Indiana,
the Whitewater/Miami Valleys, west central Ohio and parts of
central Ohio in a slight risk for severe storms. All severe
weather threats will be on the table in these areas: damaging
winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. This convection will
likely congeal into a more linear structure as it moves
east/southeast farther into our forecast area later in the
evening and overnight hours. Some storms will have the potential
to produce heavy rainfall, and with the mid level flow in a
zonal orientation, some training of storms will be possible,
especially along and north of I-70. All of these threats have
been placed in the current HWO. For points farther to the east
and south, on the periphery of the slight risk, a marginal risk
for severe storms exists. The great potential for severe storms
in the slight risk area will be 5 pm to midnight, and 7 pm to
midnight in the marginal risk area. The severe weather threat
will diminish substantially after midnight has SBCAPES wane.

In the warm sector, highs will range from the upper 60s
northwest to the lower to mid 70s elsewhere.

[tron777]

A small cluster of storms associated with the warm front has weakened over the Dayton area this morning and will continue to fizzle out. Then, we watch and wait to see what happens this afternoon. 6Z HRRR was not as impressive this afternoon. Sounding shows isolated severe possible with the best shot coming in the wee hours of the morning as the cold front presses into the area. The 6Z NAM continues to show nothing until overnight and yes severe wx is possible then.

So that's where we're at folks. Two potential rounds. The more uncertain one is this afternoon then the second more likely round is overnight tonight / wee hours of Fri morning depending on your location. I think the marginal risk is good. Best chance still is going to be N of Cincy IMO. I like the IND to DAY corridor best personally.

[Trevor]

HRRR continues to show quite a line moving through early-mid afternoon. Watches out west currently for this activity. Needs to be watched.

[Trevor]

Sounding for this evening showing PDS tornado so if anything pops this evening we could have some serious trouble. Will depend on quality of atmosphere after potential mid afternoon storms.

[Trevor]

I believe SPC will likely upgrade our area to a SLGT in the next outlook.

[tron777]

I believe SPC will likely upgrade our area to a SLGT in the next outlook.

I just wish we had more model support for this. That is what I keep struggling with. I just hate putting all my eggs in one basket so to speak. We'll see if the storms can hold together as they move into our area. Most models weaken it and we get nothing minus the HRRR of course.

[cloudy72]

Managed to get brushed by the morning showers with 0.06" in my hood. The battle of NAM vs HRRR - coming to an outdoor theater near you!

[tpweather]

HRRR continues to show quite a line moving through early-mid afternoon. Watches out west currently for this activity. Needs to be watched.

With this model a nice bowing line plus if you get those cells by themselves those can form a decent tornado and usually on the southern end of a decent line of storms. Will see how much warming we get today and locally temps should rise quite nicely. Hopefully just some heavier rains but strong storms are very possible and severe ones are not out of the question. Still believe Friday morning we should have a nice line of storms coming through as well and once the front passes through we are good and temps not bad for the weekend.

Spent the afternoon at Molly Malone's in Covington as some old retired folks decided to celebrate St. Patty's day early. What a beautiful day yesterday and even got out the shorts and still was quite toasty

[cloudy72]

Did the 03z SREF not update this morning? I guess we wait for the 09z push to see if any change in TOR parameters occurred.

[tron777]

Did the 03z SREF not update this morning? I guess we wait for the 09z push to see if any change in TOR parameters occurred.

The 3Z SREF plume is out there. Has 800 J/KG of CAPE for CVG. On SPC's webpage it did not for some reason. Strange...

[tron777]

Some high clouds are drifting thru but otherwise, we will be starting the day with some sunshine. How long that lasts and how much CAPE we can build up will determine if the storms will survive moving in this afternoon. Dews are fairly low too so we'll need some higher dews as well or the storms will most certainly weaken as they try and move in due to drier air at the surface. The better dews are currently to our SW pooling ahead of a 1008 MB surface low and cold front. The low is located along the MS River NW of St. Louis. Warm front looks to be located N of the I-70 corridor at this time. Seeing some nice shear of 50-60 knots off to the West and some nice helicity also over MO and ILL pushing into Western IN now. We'll know around midday if this afternoon will be in play or not.

[cloudy72]

Radar indicated tornado with that line north of STL. (8:32am)

[cloudy72]

So did a quick radar analysis and if the line of storms currently around STL holds together, at 55 mph would put the line in vicinity of I-75 corridor between 2:15 and 3:00.

[tron777]

So did a quick radar analysis and if the line of storms currently around STL holds together, at 55 mph would put the line in vicinity of I-75 corridor between 2:15 and 3:00.

I start the drive home at 3... lovely!

[Trevor]

As expected, the slight risk has been expanded to cover the tri-state.

[tron777]

3Z SREF is out on SPC's website now. Significant TOR ingredients has a 30% area NW of I-71 for this afternoon. 15% overnight tonight for all AV posters.

[tron777]

Mid level lapse rates are very steep for the time of day across the ILL / IN border region. Could be some hailers in that area as time goes on.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR is in and it's a bit faster bringing in that line this afternoon around 2pm for Cincinnati.

[tron777]

12Z NAM has that line now this afternoon but it's way north of Cincy. Mainly an I-70 Crew event, then we get ours overnight further to the south. Sounding shows severe wx being possible overnight with a decent hail signal too.