Absolute Vorticity

12z GFS looks to be coming in stronger as well. I likie!

2-4" for most folks... the higher totals are more isolated of course due to the banded nature of the snow but we've known this for a while now anyway.

BG's SnowTalk! video:





WAVE3's inhouse model shows the snow getting started for us after 6pm and lasting until 10-11pm. Most of it is near and after sunset so that should help some with sticking power.

41 here in east side with sun for the past hour

15Z HRRR is getting a little ridiculous. 3-5" now being shown and a nice banded area of 4-5" over S Indiana.

Indy radar

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:50 am Hey Casie.... got busy working so just getting around to responding to your questions. If you get under a heavier band of snow then after 6pm, I would expect it to start sticking to some of the roads. This storm is headed towards the mid-Atlantic and DC regions and it will impact them overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning.

How much in DC? Will airports be affected?

wrmwxfreak wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:30 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 9:50 am Hey Casie.... got busy working so just getting around to responding to your questions. If you get under a heavier band of snow then after 6pm, I would expect it to start sticking to some of the roads. This storm is headed towards the mid-Atlantic and DC regions and it will impact them overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning.

How much in DC? Will airports be affected?

NWS out of DC is going with up to 4" for most. 6" in isolated fashion due to heavier snow bands.

SPC now has a marginal risk of severe wx from Central AR to around Memphis.... just South of the surface low track. Interesting....

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:36 am SPC now has a marginal risk of severe wx from Central AR to around Memphis.... just South of the surface low track. Interesting....

I don’t particularly want to see that if it has a chance to effect us

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:43 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 11:36 am SPC now has a marginal risk of severe wx from Central AR to around Memphis.... just South of the surface low track. Interesting....

I don’t particularly want to see that if it has a chance to effect us

A fair point, but I don't think the convection is going to be strong enough to block any moisture transport. It's too bad that all of that rain down around the TX and LA Gulf Coasts couldn't get involved lol

Seeing at least 3 obs of thundersnow across Missouri now.

16z HRRR delays the start of precip until 6PM. A touch of rain before rapid transition to moderate to heavy snow. Snow ends around 11PM. Heaviest comes right through Cincy.

MD Up for Heavy Snowfall rates along I-70-

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0145.html

The above is not shocking. 700 MB frontogenic forcing along the I-70 corridor is very impressive!

Update from the boys as of around noon.

Expanded the winter weather advisory to include Shelby, Logan,
Union, and Delaware counties in Ohio. Will revisit whether
Mercer and Auglaize will need to be added as the mid day hours
progress. Already seeing banding of snow develop. Went a little
closer to the hi res models than some of the other operational
models which have the heaviest snowfall totals a little further
south due to them handling current placement of snowfall a
little better. In general have at least 1 to 3 inches across the
region with a band of 2 to 4 and locally higher amounts between
4 and 5 inches possible. Still seeing the nice signal on the
models for the fgen banding and just trying to narrow down where
the highest values with the banding will be. A majority of the
accumulating snow will end by around midnight, however some
light more isolated to scattered snow showers will continue into
the second half of the night. Temperatures will also drop quite
a bit into the teens and lower 20s. Some wind chill values may
even dip into the single digits by morning.

The main concerns will be the higher rates of snow which will
have the potential to cause slick conditions even with warmer
surfaces due to brief ability for it to overcome warm surfaces.
Going into this evening as temperatures fall there could be a
larger and longer potential for slick conditions given the
cooler temperature pattern at that point. Visibility will also
be reduced with heavier snowfall which adds to any potential
impacts.

At CVG, we have reached our max temp of the day which was 40 degrees last hour. Down to 39 as of the 1pm reading. I expect temps to continue to fall as the snow moves in. Some of it will be virga at the beginning but evaporational cooling processes and wet bulbing will assist in getting temps down. for us in the Cincy area... we could briefly start as some light rain but once the better returns arrive, we'll flip to snow very quickly so I don't expect a lot of QPF to be lost. The later start time is also going to help out a great deal.

12Z Euro showing 2-3" for most folks. 0.25" QPF for CVG and that's actually low when compared to a lot of the other guidance. NAM and GFS were in the 0.30s range for example.

17Z HRRR is picking up where the 16Z run left off.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:15 pm 17Z HRRR is picking up where the 16Z run left off.

Latest RAP is showing same as well. See what happens.

I am in the DC area tonight then Purcellville VA tomorrow where they are expecting 4 to 6. I'll let you know how it goes!

The temp gradient is really neat too see. Upper 30s at CVG, U20s to L30s North of I-70. Get down into Western KY you are in the 40s and 50s. Then you get the 60s in Western TN around Memphis.

mainevilleweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 16, 2024 1:28 pm I am in the DC area tonight then Purcellville VA tomorrow where they are expecting 4 to 6. I'll let you know how it goes!

Awesome! Please post a pic if you are able to do so.

I think personally that Central KY is going to get the shaft this time due to mixing issues. Trev is going to be right on that point. I expect the rain / snow line to be south of the ILN Forecast Area so that should put us in the Cincy area as well as I-70 folks... in some of the best snows. Or at least the chance is there anyway. It will come down to banding as we have said quite a few times.