Absolute Vorticity

The column was saturated around noon and has been snowing ever since. Have a dusting so far. The flakes are small and dry.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:38 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:12 am

winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:03 am I'll be nowcasting for sure, with the radar and the short term models come this evening to see if an overachiever is actually in the works. Looks to be a tired day at work tomorrow! lol
At least it's Friday tomorrow!

If the trends today are correct.... it maybe a tough drive into the office for me tomorrow.

you should take a pto day tomorrow

Don't tempt me, Charles!

Mhfight wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:42 pm Apologies if this has been covered - what is the thought on timing? What’s your idea/best guess on a start time?

I think the better snows come in later on tonight into tomorrow morning. The Fri AM commute will be impacted in my opinion.

Thank you all for the obs and reports! Keep 'em coming when you can!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:50 pm

Mhfight wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:42 pm Apologies if this has been covered - what is the thought on timing? What’s your idea/best guess on a start time?

I think the better snows come in later on tonight into tomorrow morning. The Fri AM commute will be impacted in my opinion.

Thanks Les - I have a new driver working until 9 - I think he should be okay, but always like checking.

Mhfight wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:55 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:50 pm

Mhfight wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:42 pm Apologies if this has been covered - what is the thought on timing? What’s your idea/best guess on a start time?

I think the better snows come in later on tonight into tomorrow morning. The Fri AM commute will be impacted in my opinion.

Thanks Les - I have a new driver working until 9 - I think he should be okay, but always like checking.

Not a problem!

Just had a brief burst of snow at the shop here in Greendale, IN. Stopped just as quick as it started!

Chris Bailey's opinion of NWS Wilmington

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:58 pm Just had a brief burst of snow at the shop here in Greendale, IN. Stopped just as quick as it started!

You should have lit one off... seed those clouds!

stormygirl wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:03 pm Chris Bailey's opinion of NWS Wilmington

Classic CB! Gotta love it.

Seeing some flurries now in Maineville

12z euro showing that dry slot again.

A nice run from the 12z Euro. 10:1 ratio.

12Z Euro tries to get the dry slot into some of our extreme SW counties. Not quite as nice as the other 12Z models today. QPF is below.

CVG - 0.15"
HAO - 0.16"
MGY - 0.19"
DAY - 0.20"
CMH - 0.26"
FGX - 0.21"

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:08 pm

Mfitz730 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 12:58 pm Just had a brief burst of snow at the shop here in Greendale, IN. Stopped just as quick as it started!

You should have lit one off... seed those clouds!

Haha, we thought about it!

Good Afternoon and finally back to a hobby I enjoy. Trying to look over things and the different advisories and no doubt I believe the NWS locally should have us in an advisory. Not because we get tons of snow but even 1 inch with the cold ground temps can cause problems. If we came out of a warm spell where the roads are well above 32 then I can understand but the road temps are cold.. My guess they will upgrade later today. To me it looks like a good call of 1-3 inches with higher amounts to the east. Again much of this snow will be at a higher ratio and probably 12-1 and rising to 15-1. I believe today's virga helps in getting the atmosphere somewhat moist. Where are the most likely busts and probably east of here as two systems try to phase and if they do quicker than advertised I could see 4-6 well east of here in southeast Ohio and northeast Ky. Another cold weekend for sure before the January Thaw begins starting probably Tuesday.

Hey Tim... that seems like a good run down to me. That has been my call. 1" south to 3" north but it maybe better to tailor that range from west to east based on todays trends, which you have done in your post. Certainly advisory worthy for the entire forecast area. If the GFS is right, you're flirting with warning criteria in some areas but I of course won't be forecasting that.

Flurries starting to find their way to the ground in Wilmington!

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:24 pm Hey Tim... that seems like a good run down to me. That has been my call. 1" south to 3" north but it maybe better to tailor that range from west to east based on todays trends, which you have done in your post. Certainly advisory worthy for the entire forecast area. If the GFS is right, you're flirting with warning criteria in some areas but I of course won't be forecasting that.

Hey Les and glad to be back on the forum. For us weather lovers and having no information to go on was killing me lol. Lets hope we get lucky this time and able to out some snow on the ground and if so most likely below zero early Sunday morning. Will be interesting to see the quick return of moisture early next week and it always worries me somewhat when this happens quickly after a nice long cold snap. Sure temps well above can climb nicely but at the surface with snow on the ground and mid-January not always easy to get those ground temps to rebound as quick. Still to early but lets see how quick the moisture returns and if slower then we may be fine but a quicker return then ice does come into play.

Light snow here as well. Temp at 26.

EU hanging in that .15”-.25” range for most of region

tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:32 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:24 pm Hey Tim... that seems like a good run down to me. That has been my call. 1" south to 3" north but it maybe better to tailor that range from west to east based on todays trends, which you have done in your post. Certainly advisory worthy for the entire forecast area. If the GFS is right, you're flirting with warning criteria in some areas but I of course won't be forecasting that.

Hey Les and glad to be back on the forum. For us weather lovers and having no information to go on was killing me lol. Lets hope we get lucky this time and able to out some snow on the ground and if so most likely below zero early Sunday morning. Will be interesting to see the quick return of moisture early next week and it always worries me somewhat when this happens quickly after a nice long cold snap. Sure temps well above can climb nicely but at the surface with snow on the ground and mid-January not always easy to get those ground temps to rebound as quick. Still to early but lets see how quick the moisture returns and if slower then we may be fine but a quicker return then ice does come into play.

I'd love to see the grass covered. Hasn't happened yet all winter for many of us.

CVG was up to 29 dew of 8 as of the 1pm reading. Still nothing here in Mason that I can see unless the flakes are so small I can't see them. Stinks getting older...

This is cruel.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:45 pm CVG was up to 29 dew of 8 as of the 1pm reading. Still nothing here in Mason that I can see unless the flakes are so small I can't see them. Stinks getting older...

I was out and about the past 90 minutes and there were vey light flakes falling off and on.