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Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:51 pm
by tron777
young pup wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:22 pm Not sure if this has been mentioned or not. It's colder than it was supposed to be today. Been out most of the day taking Christmas decorations down and loading calcium products. Been in the house for 30 minutes and I'm still chilling. Doesn't help that I have been sick the past few days. :)
I am finally feeling better myself JP. Been sick since Christmas. My Mom has been sick for 2 weeks and is finally feeling a bit better today. It's been a tough one to shake. Tracking snow always makes me feel better. Good medicine! :lol: 38 degrees here, that is my high for today so we stayed below 40 down here as I expected when I talked about the temps this morning. CVG also at 38 currently.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:51 pm
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:47 pm
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:11 pm
kywthrluvr wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:45 pm Looks like ILN issued a WWA for southeast counties only.
I saw that Leslie. My guess they are trying to decide how far west to throw the advisory.
Just getting caught up here. Took down the outside Christmas Lights to keep everything dry. :) I am a bit perplexed by this. I agree with the advisory but I thought one would have been issued for the Cincy Metro also. Oh well... what do I know. :lol:

18Z NAM has 0.35" of QPF at CVG and the 18Z GFS is coming in with 0.40"
Les I believe they are trying to figure out how far west to push the advisory. I could be wrong but almost 5pm and have not come out with the afternoon forecast

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:52 pm
by tron777
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:51 pm
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:47 pm
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:11 pm
kywthrluvr wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:45 pm Looks like ILN issued a WWA for southeast counties only.
I saw that Leslie. My guess they are trying to decide how far west to throw the advisory.
Just getting caught up here. Took down the outside Christmas Lights to keep everything dry. :) I am a bit perplexed by this. I agree with the advisory but I thought one would have been issued for the Cincy Metro also. Oh well... what do I know. :lol:

18Z NAM has 0.35" of QPF at CVG and the 18Z GFS is coming in with 0.40"
Les I believe they are trying to figure out how far west to push the advisory. I could be wrong but almost 5pm and have not come out with the afternoon forecast
I've been waiting for the AFD also. It was just issued here we go....

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will continue to drift eastwards towards the
Atlantic coast through today and tonight. This will be replaced
by a low pressure system in the southeastern CONUS, which will
be our primary weather maker.

Cirrus clouds continue to overspread the region, with mid level
clouds building in later this evening as the lower troposphere
begins to saturate. Onset timing of pcpn is generally on track
from previous forecasts: Frozen precip (in the form of snow) is
expected to move into the Tristate region around 2-4AM. A
larger complex of precip will gradually begin to move into our
northern KY counties around this timeframe. While it`s possible
that some of these hydrometeors may initially reach the surface
in liquid form (or perhaps even some ice pellets mixed in), the
precip will fall through a layer of drier air near the surface,
helping to evaporatively cool the near-surface air. As precip
rates increase, this evaporative cooling will help cool the
thermal profiles in the atmosphere and create a more favorable
environment for snow to be the primary p-type. Given the
potential for heavier snowfall rates, and the time of day when
pavement/ground temperatures will be near their coldest, there
is the potential for snow to rapidly accumulate during the early
morning hours on Saturday. Thus, we have issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for locations where confidence is highest
amongst hi-res model guidance for higher snowfall totals.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The highest intensity of snowfall is expected to continue
through the mid-to-late morning hours on Saturday. Our northern
KY counties, along with portions of southern OH, have the
greatest potential of accumulations reaching (or perhaps even
exceeding) 2 inches. Bufkit soundings do show negative omega
aligning with a saturated DGZ, along with a fairly decent
isothermal layer aligning itself just below 0 degrees C, which
is where some higher reflectivity is being initialized in CAMs.
This data suggests the potential for large, wet snowflakes
(likely a snow- to-liquid ration closer to 8:1 or 9:1) to fall
in these locations. Given that surface flow will remain out of
the east- northeast, there will not be any WAA to quickly
changeover the p-type being observed at the surface. Thus,
locations will observe a more prolonged period of snowfall with
this system. This has lead to an area-wide increase in overall
snow amounts. Have a larger portion of our CWA now receiving
1-2", with north- central KY and the lower Scioto Valley
trending closer to 2", with locally higher amounts certainly
possible. As you progress further north towards I-70, snow
amounts are expected to decrease, likely below an inch.

By the early afternoon, the more impactful snowfall will begin
to shift eastward. Currently have the Advisory expiring at 1PM
given this trend, but be mindful that additional light snowfall
will continue through the rest of the day, particularly north
of the OH River. Saturday night, a weak shortwave will traverse
the area, which could generate some additional snowfall across
our CWA. Light accumulations are possible from this feature, but
overall impacts should be minimal.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:07 pm
by wxnut
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:51 pm
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:47 pm
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:11 pm
kywthrluvr wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:45 pm Looks like ILN issued a WWA for southeast counties only.
I saw that Leslie. My guess they are trying to decide how far west to throw the advisory.
Just getting caught up here. Took down the outside Christmas Lights to keep everything dry. :) I am a bit perplexed by this. I agree with the advisory but I thought one would have been issued for the Cincy Metro also. Oh well... what do I know. :lol:

18Z NAM has 0.35" of QPF at CVG and the 18Z GFS is coming in with 0.40"
Les I believe they are trying to figure out how far west to push the advisory. I could be wrong but almost 5pm and have not come out with the afternoon forecast
Knowing ultra-conservative (aka advisory adverse) ILN, the advisory will get pulled west into the Cincy Metro area once the snow starts and there is 1-2 inches on the ground with a few hours of snow left to go. :) :) :)

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:21 pm
by winterstormjoe
wxnut wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:07 pm
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:51 pm
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:47 pm
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:11 pm
kywthrluvr wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:45 pm Looks like ILN issued a WWA for southeast counties only.
I saw that Leslie. My guess they are trying to decide how far west to throw the advisory.
Just getting caught up here. Took down the outside Christmas Lights to keep everything dry. :) I am a bit perplexed by this. I agree with the advisory but I thought one would have been issued for the Cincy Metro also. Oh well... what do I know. :lol:

18Z NAM has 0.35" of QPF at CVG and the 18Z GFS is coming in with 0.40"
Les I believe they are trying to figure out how far west to push the advisory. I could be wrong but almost 5pm and have not come out with the afternoon forecast
Knowing ultra-conservative (aka advisory adverse) ILN, the advisory will get pulled west into the Cincy Metro area once the snow starts and there is 1-2 inches on the ground with a few hours of snow left to go. :) :) :)
Yeah, that is strange that ILN hasn't expanded the advisory westward??? Maybe it will be in there 10pm package?

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:22 pm
by tron777
Check out the water vapor loop.... a pretty potent disturbance and you can clearly see the Gulf getting involved.

WV Loop.gif

EDIT: Ugh... it's not looping. Try this link: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html


Watching our southern low beginning to take over. 1006 MB off the LA Coast. Nice plume off moisture coming in off the Gulf. If you check out the radar.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:24 pm
by tron777
wxnut wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:07 pm Knowing ultra-conservative (aka advisory adverse) ILN, the advisory will get pulled west into the Cincy Metro area once the snow starts and there is 1-2 inches on the ground with a few hours of snow left to go. :) :) :)
No doubt! It will be issued after the fact like usual. :lol:

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:32 pm
by winterstormjoe
young pup wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:22 pm Not sure if this has been mentioned or not. It's colder than it was supposed to be today. Been out most of the day taking Christmas decorations down and loading calcium products. Been in the house for 30 minutes and I'm still chilling. Doesn't help that I have been sick the past few days. :)
JP, looks like I'm going to have to wait for the next little warmup to take down my lights and by the looks of it on the models it may be quite a while :roll:

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:41 pm
by young pup
tron777 wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:51 pm
young pup wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:22 pm Not sure if this has been mentioned or not. It's colder than it was supposed to be today. Been out most of the day taking Christmas decorations down and loading calcium products. Been in the house for 30 minutes and I'm still chilling. Doesn't help that I have been sick the past few days. :)
I am finally feeling better myself JP. Been sick since Christmas. My Mom has been sick for 2 weeks and is finally feeling a bit better today. It's been a tough one to shake. Tracking snow always makes me feel better. Good medicine! :lol: 38 degrees here, that is my high for today so we stayed below 40 down here as I expected when I talked about the temps this morning. CVG also at 38 currently.
Glad you are feeling better. I got hit with a couple of days after Christmas and spent New Years day in bed. lol Hope and pray your Mom gets better quick.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:42 pm
by young pup
winterstormjoe wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:32 pm
young pup wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 4:22 pm Not sure if this has been mentioned or not. It's colder than it was supposed to be today. Been out most of the day taking Christmas decorations down and loading calcium products. Been in the house for 30 minutes and I'm still chilling. Doesn't help that I have been sick the past few days. :)
JP, looks like I'm going to have to wait for the next little warmup to take down my lights and by the looks of it on the models it may be quite a while :roll:
That's why I was out there today. Get it done before snow gets on the roof and then they won't come off until spring. lol

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:51 pm
by mainevilleweather
That gfs for next weekend in Indy wow! I hope that comes south!

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:53 pm
by markalot
Very light echos showing up on radar north of Louisville but not there on KLVX radar. KILN looking way up at that distance.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:56 pm
by young pup
I'm wondering if they issued that advisory for parts of Southern Ohio early due to all the hills in the area. That way, older folks could get to the store and what not for french toast supplies? ;)

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:02 pm
by tpweather
young pup wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:56 pm I'm wondering if they issued that advisory for parts of Southern Ohio early due to all the hills in the area. That way, older folks could get to the store and what not for french toast supplies? ;)
I love french toast!!!

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:01 pm
by tron777
Good evening folks! Had to take a dinner break. I'm back for a while now to track this system. :)

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:07 pm
by tron777
18Z Euro QPF:

CVG - 0.24"
HAO - 0.19"
MGY - 0.17"
DAY - 0.14"
CMH - 0.12"

FGX - 0.41" - Snow to rain

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:27 pm
by young pup
tpweather wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 6:02 pm
young pup wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 5:56 pm I'm wondering if they issued that advisory for parts of Southern Ohio early due to all the hills in the area. That way, older folks could get to the store and what not for french toast supplies? ;)
I love french toast!!!
Breakfast sounds good right now. :)

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:32 pm
by tron777
CB's evening update with his snow map included:

https://kyweathercenter.com/?p=63042

I watched BGs blog update from this morning and he has 1-2" for us and 2-4" in the SE.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:49 pm
by tron777
36 / 25 IMBY right now so as we've discussed, we will have dry air to overcome but that will help with evaporational cooling / dynamic cooling processes. Once again to summarize... precip rate is key to hitting our projected accumulations. Once the precip lightens up tomorrow afternoon, it will be light rain / drizzle and any snow we do see will begin to melt. I still like that 4am - 12pm window for the best snow SW to NE.

1006 MB low now is near NOLA. We are in watch and wait mode at this time. :)

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 7:52 pm
by tron777
I checked weather obs to our SW and Memphis, TN as well as Dyersburg, TN are both reporting light rain. Nothing yet from any KY reporting stations.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:04 pm
by tron777
35 / 24 as of 8pm at CVG.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:09 pm
by tron777
Local 12's call as of a couple hours ago:

Local 12.jpg

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:17 pm
by tron777
0Z HRRR is rolling in and it has the heaviest snow band in NKY and SW OH along the I-71 corridor tomorrow morning. That transitions into our SE counties as well as the morning wears on.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:18 pm
by tron777
21Z RAP concurs with the above.

Re: 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

Posted: Fri Jan 05, 2024 8:42 pm
by tron777
0Z RAP is coming in virtually showing the same thing.