Absolute Vorticity

I love these large scale storms as much as the next person, but I am optimistic about a clipper pattern coming up later in the month. With the amount of cold air in place, ratios will be high. Could we see another "super-clipper" that drops 6"+? I think the pattern will be ripe for it.

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:32 am I love these large scale storms as much as the next person, but I am optimistic about a clipper pattern coming up later in the month. With the amount of cold air in place, ratios will be high. Could we see another "super-clipper" that drops 6"+? I think the pattern will be ripe for it.

I wouldn't be apposed to re-doing Feb of 2010. We have not really had a good clipper pattern since then. If I recall that was also a moderate or strong El Nino winter.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:35 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 7:32 am I love these large scale storms as much as the next person, but I am optimistic about a clipper pattern coming up later in the month. With the amount of cold air in place, ratios will be high. Could we see another "super-clipper" that drops 6"+? I think the pattern will be ripe for it.

I wouldn't be apposed to re-doing Feb of 2010. We have not really had a good clipper pattern since then. If I recall that was also a moderate or strong El Nino winter.

You are correct!

12Z GFS still looking good for the possible MLK snow event.

Today's 12z GFS for next Tuesday. That's pretty cold.

dce wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 11:59 am Today's 12z GFS for next Tuesday. That's pretty cold.

If we can get a snow pack down by then... those anomalies may not be that far off.

12Z Euro is looking a lot more GFS like for MLK. I like what I am seeing there.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:44 pm 12Z Euro is looking a lot more GFS like for MLK. I like what I am seeing there.

We are almost to the scary point. The Icon is looking similar as well.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 4:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 08, 2024 2:44 pm 12Z Euro is looking a lot more GFS like for MLK. I like what I am seeing there.

We are almost to the scary point. The Icon is looking similar as well.

I'd like to see the EPS come around.

Good Evening and the east wind had a nice cold bite today. I will talk about each storm in the correct place but wanted to start here with more of an overall pattern we are seeing develop and what it may mean for us locally.

First of all two major systems in one week tells us a pattern change is in the works. Seeing the central plains getting hit hard with snow is so nice to see and really over the past 10-15 years they have been in a snow drought. Yes we have seen a few years below normal but nothing compared to them.

This is key though for us and easy call we are going to get cold and most likely storms that will be mainly snow. The important part though is it where we get a few storms and then boom we get warm and the snow is gone or do we stay below-near normal because the central plains has a nice snow base and any warming out there is is not as strong because much of it is trying to melt the snow. I believe we are in for a period where snow to some extent is on the ground for 2-3 weeks instead of 2-3 days. The coldest of air compared to normal is on this side of the planet and we are heading into the coldest part of winter.

We still have El Nino and that always is a concern but if we keep the STJ moving right along then the strong ridging in the southeast will be hard to come by. Blocking still looks good over the next few weeks so not worried about that.

The MJO is one that I believe is incorrect and have said this for sometime. I see the model showing heading to phase 4 and 5 and all along I believe phase 3 and heads to the COD.

Usually when you get a cold blast like this you see a retreat of the cold for a few days and I can see that in late January but believe the cold will return and we have a nice February in terms of snow and cold. Still believe an early spring in March but worry about that when that comes around.

CVG / DAY both reached 39 and CMH 38 today.

KY special is favored per a majority of the guidance for storm #3 on MLK day.

Yeah, the storm looks to be a little weaker / further south on the overnight guidance. It will depend on where the arctic boundary is after the 12-13th system moves thru.

I am not feeling great about the MLK storm but trying to remember that we have 2 storms to get through first. Anything is possible!

mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:11 am I am not feeling great about the MLK storm but trying to remember that we have 2 storms to get through first. Anything is possible!

I wouldn't rule out anything as of yet. Euro is still showing a stronger system attm versus the GFS and we won't know too much yet until we see how far south the arctic boundary goes after the strong low on Saturday passes.

mikeyp wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:11 am I am not feeling great about the MLK storm but trying to remember that we have 2 storms to get through first. Anything is possible!

From a modeling standpoint our chances for snow look slim at the moment. It's an extreme pattern we have began to enter, so hopefully, something will break in our favor.

I'm still seeing a big spread on the Ensembles with the SLP placement for MLK. From West Virginia to the East coast.

Good Morning and models do a terrible job with arctic fronts in our area. They do a horrible job of how cold it will get plus seldom get storm systems correct in the gulf states. The pattern is really good for a decent storm next week and not worried about the models until at least Thursday and maybe not until the weekend. Tell you the truth I am surprise they show a storm because probably 80p/c of the time with this setup they miss the storm completely until a few days away.

What makes this an even more impressive is this will not be a snow where its 30 degrees and you get 2-4 inches and that is always easy to manage. This could be a system that produces 1-3 with temp near 20 and temps falling. That screams a nice layer of ice under the snow and these kind of storms are worse than some bigger snow total storms.

We have time to watch this unfold but need to get through the storm toady and the one heading in here on Friday.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 6:39 am Good Morning and models do a terrible job with arctic fronts in our area. They do a horrible job of how cold it will get plus seldom get storm systems correct in the gulf states. The pattern is really good for a decent storm next week and not worried about the models until at least Thursday and maybe not until the weekend. Tell you the truth I am surprise they show a storm because probably 80p/c of the time with this setup they miss the storm completely until a few days away.

What makes this an even more impressive is this will not be a snow where its 30 degrees and you get 2-4 inches and that is always easy to manage. This could be a system that produces 1-3 with temp near 20 and temps falling. That screams a nice layer of ice under the snow and these kind of storms are worse than some bigger snow total storms.

We have time to watch this unfold but need to get through the storm toady and the one heading in here on Friday.

I agree Tim. Whatever moisture we do see with this wave along the arctic front will be a very powdery snow with very high snow to liquid ratios. Temps in the upper teens to lower 20s is a good bet.

HAPPY 61ST BIRTHDAY WXPATRIOT RON!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Happy Birthday Ron! Hope you have a wonderful day!!!

I see we have a place in northern Canada that was -47 this morning. Still have not hit -50 so far this season but sure that will happen over the next couple of weeks. Coldest I found in Siberia was -66 this morning. Sort of strange year in terms of cold build up as we saw some places further south in latitude get hammered with cold in November and December but those were pieces of the PV that drifted south.

If you want to eliminate a lot of the garbage on the net about the PV , pay attention to Dr. Butler






http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... disruption

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 09, 2024 9:15 am If you want to eliminate a lot of the garbage on the net about the PV , pay attention to Dr. Butler






http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... disruption

She's awesome! Really knows her stuff. I follow her on X (Twitter).

I agree I hope something works in our favor- a lot of us at work are looking longingly at this rain wishing it was cold enough for it to be snow.

I asked this in another thread- is there a reason why Cincinnati (outside of northern suburbs) always seems to get stuck in a rhythm of when there's moisture it's too warm, and when it's cold there's no moisture?