Absolute Vorticity

I know it Trev! A quick post on that crazy OP GFS run in the fantasy range.... -EPO, +PNA, and a -NAO. Do we really get the -NAO is the question? We would like to see that on the Ensemble guidance for more wintry appeal. So far, I think we may actually see the -EPO and +PNA but the -NAO is a wildcard IMO right now for the extended range. Currently the GEFS does not have the -NAO that a lot of the global models are trying to sell esp the OP GFS.

I checked the rest of the GEFS members and most are dry for the Holiday Weekend... a few have rain or snow and basically none of them are buying what the OP GFS is selling in the fantasy range so there you go.

12Z Euro is rolling in now and it's back to showing a nice phased system bringing rain and maybe some some thunderstorms too very late Monday thru Tues evening. We do not get the big temp drop behind it like the GFS and esp CMC have. On Wed it has upper40s maybe 50 in a few spots. The flow is more zonal with the cold locked up in Canada. Towards the end of the run, we could see some rain for the Holiday Weekend if the run went a little further out. The 0Z run was colder but the high in S Canada is much weaker on this run.

61 in my hood today, CVG topped out at 59.

GFS was one of the heavier models for Friday but came down in totals to match the NAM on its 6z run. I like a general 0.25” to as much as 0.50”. Leaving the higher end of the range for now given model uncertainty but I expect most to be around a quarter inch.

Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2023 5:30 am GFS was one of the heavier models for Friday but came down in totals to match the NAM on its 6z run. I like a general 0.25” to as much as 0.50”. Leaving the higher end of the range for now given model uncertainty but I expect most to be around a quarter inch.

Good morning Trev. I completely agree. I have not talked much about the next system since it's been a slam dunk for a while with regards to timing and totals.

For next week... I like the Monday night and Tues timing but do we get just the southern system and it's an all rain event or do we get any phasing from the northern branch to end the event with a touch of snow? The jury is still out on that. Then, we need to watch another potential rain to snow or all snow for northern posters sometime during the Holiday Weekend into Monday the 27th. Models continue to flip and flop and disagree with each other until we get closer. That's what typically happens with pattern changes and split flow jet stream patterns as well. The STJ brings in the moisture and the polar jet delivers the cold. Should the two phase correctly, we'll all be smiling!

The CPC 6-10 Day outlook from yesterday shows below avg temps and above normal precip for the OV. 8-14 Day shows confidence increasing for below normal temps but below avg precip (which is okay). Could mean cold and dry or maybe some snow? Anyway, the analogs being shown for both forecast periods in the extended range shows 2002 and 2009 coming up quite a bit. That could be some good news for snow lovers. The +PNA / -EPO combo I believe is coming, but as far as the sensible weather goes for wintry events as in who gets what, remains to be seen. If we can see this pattern for later in Nov into early Dec come to fruition, I truly believe that the 500 MB pattern being shown not only with the global models (Operationals and with their Ensemble counterparts too) will give us chances. As you all know, we can score in good patterns and also fail due to bad luck. That's the weather for you. However, odds do go up for snow when the right pattern is in place. I like what I'm seeing to be completely honest and if we can see this pattern more often then not over the winter months, a truly nice winter for us is indeed quite possible. This is the best look I have seen probably since 2013-2014 winter IMO. That winter was polar jet dominated and we had no STJ. Imagine with the -EPO / +PNA combo what we can do with the STJ which we will have thanks to El Nino (split flow jet). I'm excited about it! Even if we fail, at least the 500 MB pattern currently being shown will hold promise. The first real period of opportunity for wintry weather that we can actually measure will be after Thanksgiving IMO. Like around the 26-29th timeframe to be more precise.

Good afternoon all... no changes to the forecast thru the weekend. Upper 60s maybe even 70 today and tomorrow then we get our 1/4" of rain on Friday that Trev was mentioning this morning. Maybe an isolated 1/2" amount for a select few. Then we are cooler and dry for this weekend.

The pattern and future storm systems for next week are still changing and evolving. We are seeing a much stronger system now on the 12Z GFS and even some phasing now as well with a deepening low moving right thru our hoods on Tuesday. Periods of mod to heavy rain along with windy conditions would be the result if the model run is correct with back lash snow showers Wed morning and falling temps. Then we'll have to see if something on the more wintry side can develop for the Holiday Weekend or the week after Thanksgiving depending on how future model solutions pan out.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2023 12:07 pm Good afternoon all... no changes to the forecast thru the weekend. Upper 60s maybe even 70 today and tomorrow then we get our 1/4" of rain on Friday that Trev was mentioning this morning. Maybe an isolated 1/2" amount for a select few. Then we are cooler and dry for this weekend.

The pattern and future storm systems for next week are still changing and evolving. We are seeing a much stronger system now on the 12Z GFS and even some phasing now as well with a deepening low moving right thru our hoods on Tuesday. Periods of mod to heavy rain along with windy conditions would be the result if the model run is correct with back lash snow showers Wed morning and falling temps. Then we'll have to see if something on the more wintry side can develop for the Holiday Weekend or the week after Thanksgiving depending on how future model solutions pan out.

The CMC is the same general idea of a wrapped up system with snow showers on the back side. The low is a little further west through Illinois, but produces the same result for our area. It also shows follow up systems on the more wintry side as the colder air continues next weekend.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2023 12:26 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2023 12:07 pm Good afternoon all... no changes to the forecast thru the weekend. Upper 60s maybe even 70 today and tomorrow then we get our 1/4" of rain on Friday that Trev was mentioning this morning. Maybe an isolated 1/2" amount for a select few. Then we are cooler and dry for this weekend.

The pattern and future storm systems for next week are still changing and evolving. We are seeing a much stronger system now on the 12Z GFS and even some phasing now as well with a deepening low moving right thru our hoods on Tuesday. Periods of mod to heavy rain along with windy conditions would be the result if the model run is correct with back lash snow showers Wed morning and falling temps. Then we'll have to see if something on the more wintry side can develop for the Holiday Weekend or the week after Thanksgiving depending on how future model solutions pan out.

The CMC is the same general idea of a wrapped up system with snow showers on the back side. The low is a little further west through Illinois, but produces the same result for our area. It also shows follow up systems on the more wintry side as the colder air continues next weekend.

Euro is coming in now and as of Hour 138, it also looks to be going in the same direction as the other globals.

67 out there right now... wow! Should hit 70 tomorrow before the cold front and associated rain showers come thru tomorrow. Anyway, the bigger forecast challenge continues to be next week as advertised as well as after Thanksgiving as well. Hopefully we can score something in the late Nov / early Dec window on the wintry side.

We’ve had so many nice comfortable days throughout summer and fall , it has to be some sort of record amount. Only downside is my rainy day projects have turned into a mountain sized honey-do list

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Nov 15, 2023 5:37 pm We’ve had so many nice comfortable days throughout summer and fall , it has to be some sort of record amount. Only downside is my rainy day projects have turned into a mountain sized honey-do list

No doubt! It's been great for leaf grinding season, getting my trees trimmed, etc. Just waiting for the rest of the oak leaves to come down for one last (I hope) final grinding then let the snow fly. The breeze today (and tomorrow) is certainly helping to bring those leaves down.

Good morning folks! Our last beautiful day for a while then we get wet tomorrow. Confidence is increasing for a deepening low Tues of next week to bring rain, t-storms, and wind to the region. Low track is beginning to solidify thru IN to Detroit. Possible flakes to end the event Wed morning if there is enough moisture around. Cold and dry Wed - Black Friday. Then, can we see a little wintry weather over the Holiday Weekend on into the week after Thanksgiving? Some guidance has some light snow, some showing rain to snow and others all rain. The track of each system and the wave spacing between each one, as well as the strength of the high bringing down the cold air will all be factors. Stay tuned as the pattern is about to get active as we've been saying for quite a while now.

12z gfs for Monday, weaker , more south , resulting in less moisture for Midwest and OV than previous GFS runs

Saw a report where Anchorage, Alaska already at it's 2nd snowiest November ever at 38.1"...and the month is only halfway over!

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2023 1:33 pm Saw a report where Anchorage, Alaska already at it's 2nd snowiest November ever at 38.1"...and the month is only halfway over!

Yeah... AK and Siberia both are doing well in the snow cover dept. As long as the jet stream pattern is correct, there should be plenty of cold air to work with this winter.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2023 11:45 am 12z gfs for Monday, weaker , more south , resulting in less moisture for Midwest and OV than previous GFS runs

12Z CMC is also a bit weaker then it's previous runs with the low but the track is similar thru IN. I suppose the ECMWF folks are having issues. No 12Z Euro yet at least on TT , COD, and Pivotal.

Clouds have increased faster then I expected for our next system. Only 67 so far IMBY today and only 65 at CVG thus far. If we had seen more sunshine, 70 would have been a lock. Oh well... can't win them all and it's still mild anyway outside.

Smartest kid in the class deserves a day off every now and then

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu Nov 16, 2023 4:45 pm Smartest kid in the class deserves a day off every now and then

I am always reminded of this classic.

18Z GFS is trying to get a little wintry on us again with some light snow possible on Sunday Nov 26th and Tues the 28th. You can tell it's Happy Hour GFS.

12Z Euro did finally finish running and it has the strong more phased solution for the Tues of next week rain maker.