Absolute Vorticity

Good Afternoon and ready to talk more about the weather. Picked up .50 on Monday and 0.04 this morning but at least the grass and flowers are looking much nicer than a week ago. Listen to Brian's video this morning and he had the same take that I have for several days about the Texas heat. Yes Texas gets hot every summer but this one like I mentioned was rare because of temps near and above 110 and dew points that raise the heat index to above 120 in places. I am not sure I had seen that over my years of following the weather and that is quite a few years lol. Sure they get to 100-105 every year and heat index touching 110 but over 120 I just don't remember that happening. When you have that kind of heat bumping up against a jet stream you can get some really nasty weather and especially strong winds and Brian mentioned that may happen next week and I agree.

So we have a front coming into the northern plains this weekend but how far south will the front go and will it stall out next to us. So far in the past month or so these fronts have made it through and even off the southeast coast sometimes. Sooner or later one will stall near us and we can go from the short term drought we have March-May into a very wet period. Still too early to have exact timing on this or if the front stalls but sooner or later in the summer those fronts tend to stall in the Ohio and sometimes Tn valley.

Over the next few days some periods of showers can happen but not everyone will see them but if you do especially in the 4a-10a and 4p-10p you can pick a decent amount. Temps will of course be determined by the clouds and rain.

First day of summer and that means we will start the countdown to winter lol.

HAPPY SUMMER SOLSTICE!!

Currently 82 here in G'ville.

Congrats Redlegs on their 3RD SWEEP and also 11th win in a row!!

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jun 21, 2023 2:54 pm Good Afternoon and ready to talk more about the weather. Picked up .50 on Monday and 0.04 this morning but at least the grass and flowers are looking much nicer than a week ago. Listen to Brian's video this morning and he had the same take that I have for several days about the Texas heat. Yes Texas gets hot every summer but this one like I mentioned was rare because of temps near and above 110 and dew points that raise the heat index to above 120 in places. I am not sure I had seen that over my years of following the weather and that is quite a few years lol. Sure they get to 100-105 every year and heat index touching 110 but over 120 I just don't remember that happening. When you have that kind of heat bumping up against a jet stream you can get some really nasty weather and especially strong winds and Brian mentioned that may happen next week and I agree.

So we have a front coming into the northern plains this weekend but how far south will the front go and will it stall out next to us. So far in the past month or so these fronts have made it through and even off the southeast coast sometimes. Sooner or later one will stall near us and we can go from the short term drought we have March-May into a very wet period. Still too early to have exact timing on this or if the front stalls but sooner or later in the summer those fronts tend to stall in the Ohio and sometimes Tn valley.

Over the next few days some periods of showers can happen but not everyone will see them but if you do especially in the 4a-10a and 4p-10p you can pick a decent amount. Temps will of course be determined by the clouds and rain.

First day of summer and that means we will start the countdown to winter lol.

183 days Tim!

Got to 83 at CVG and 84 at both DAY and CMH.

Good Morning and a cooler day on tap before a chance of more rain late tonight and Friday. The upper system that is over the Tn and Oh Valleys will continue for the next few days and this will bring on and off chances for more rainfall. This weekend a nice cold front in the northern plains will move south and east and this does a few things and one is pushing the extreme heat in Texas to the west and yes they will remain hot but at least its just not bottled up in Texas but heads over to Arizona where we usually see this kind of heat without the humidity. The bad news in the extended is the heat looks to return to Texas next week.

Locally where does that front set up shop and something we need to watch because if it stalls somewhere in the Oh or Tn valley someone could see rounds and rounds of storms. Again a little early to pinpoint a certain area but the setup at least has potential to deliver rain and hopefully not to much at one time

The good thing is temps next week will remain nice with the clouds and possible rainfall and if you like the heat maybe Sunday ahead of the front we get into the 85-88 range but again just normal humidity for this time of year so not to bad plus short-lived as the front gets involve early next week.

No doubt the pattern is rather stubborn which happens quite often in the summer but getting these deeper troughs over the eastern 1/3 of the nation for this long of a period is somewhat out of the ordinary. I do believe though next week could be quite stormy with better chances of getting some very strong winds and heavy rains but just need to fine tune this forecast once we get closer in time.

Second post in one day and we are back to normal lol. I always like to do my forecast and then look at the models and see what they show. The models at this point show the front early next week but once again it clears the area so we don't have and extended period of rain. The trend this late spring into early summer has been for these fronts clear the area and even off the southeast coast. If that happens next week rain chances will limited to early in the week and then another dry period for mid-week.

I am keeping my forecast the same though and again does the front stall is key to the forecast bust. I still believe the models are having problems with the extreme heat in Texas and if that heat returns early next week then the models may change as extreme heat combined with the jet to the north imo will offer better shots of strong to even severe storms. Good thing is I have some extra time this weekend to update my forecast

Good morning folks! I like your forecast Tim for the next week or so. It is pretty straightforward. Do we see the front move thru next week for cooler / drier weather or does it get stuck for a daily chance of storms? I'm willing to bet option #2 since my party is coming LOL

71 is the high so far at CVG today and that occurred at midnight., 68 so far today for the daytime high.

Tomorrow still holds the best chance for rain with small chances over the weekend. Not a wash out this weekend, lots of dry time and temps back into the 80s. Decent chances again Monday into Tues. Dry and pleasant Wed and Thurs. Chances resume Fri into next Sat July 1st with frontal zone timing in question. This is kind of how I see the rest of June playing out.

Boy the euro and Canadian want to give me over 3 inches of rain the next 10 days. I hope they are wrong. Vacation time might be a bust if that happens.

Most of the showers this evening are staying east of the metro.

Got a T of rain overnight. A bit of a forecast change but now Sunday afternoon and evening is offering up a slight risk of severe wx for the region per the SPC. We also have a hatched 15% over us so strong winds appear highly likely at this early look. Looks like a NW Flow to me and a blob on convection will race ESE towards the OV. Track, timing, and intensity are still to be determined.

Good Morning Les and I picked up a whopping 0.02 inches overnight. I agree about the added chance Sunday afternoon and evening. The weather map is showing the extreme heat in Texas moving somewhat further west which the models have shown but does that heat return further east next week and the extreme heat continue in the Lone Star State. Usually when you see the heat in the southern plains it will expand north and east over time but with the trough in the east it has held the heat to mainly Texas and when you are unable to expand the heat in more directions then you get this kind of extreme heat in a small area. Next week models are showing the same old song and dance and start out with chances of rain but a drier mid-week before we once again get into a pattern with chances of more rainfall next weekend. This has been the pattern for several weeks and at this time does not show it going away. The good thing is it keeps the heat away but some folks with pools are still talking about how cold the water is and especially for late June.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jun 23, 2023 8:51 am Good Morning Les and I picked up a whopping 0.02 inches overnight. I agree about the added chance Sunday afternoon and evening. The weather map is showing the extreme heat in Texas moving somewhat further west which the models have shown but does that heat return further east next week and the extreme heat continue in the Lone Star State. Usually when you see the heat in the southern plains it will expand north and east over time but with the trough in the east it has held the heat to mainly Texas and when you are unable to expand the heat in more directions then you get this kind of extreme heat in a small area. Next week models are showing the same old song and dance and start out with chances of rain but a drier mid-week before we once again get into a pattern with chances of more rainfall next weekend. This has been the pattern for several weeks and at this time does not show it going away. The good thing is it keeps the heat away but some folks with pools are still talking about how cold the water is and especially for late June.

Hey Tim, just looked at the 06z GFS and looks encouraging for some good rainfall after the 4th with something tropical coming up from the GOM running into some fronts in our area, but again this is the fantasy period and the models loose these situations as we get closer. But I have noticed a trend in the mid and extended to get wetter over time. We'll see!

Today looks to be a carbon copy of yesterday with cloudy skies and cool weather. We'll start to turn that around tomorrow. We will see some sun this weekend and dews will come up into the 60s. Need that for the severe wx shot on Sunday. Expecting lingering showers early next week. A pleasant Wed and Thurs then we'll see how things look when we get closer by late next week and into next weekend. Warmest day of the next 7 looks to be on Sunday ahead of the severe threat. No 90s currently expected for the foreseeable future.

0.02" for me last night. Still watching with interest that later Sunday afternoon into night timeframe for severe potential.

NAM is much slower bringing in the severe storms around midnight. Sounding looks pretty robust too as in typical NAM fashion.


Here's the GFS. It is faster on bringing in the convection around 7-8pm. Sounding not as nasty looking as the above.

Picked up half an inch here from last night into this afternoon.

71 so far at CVG today. Tomorrow is a decent day and much warmer into the 80s (along with increasing humidity) ahead of Sunday's potential event.

Hopefully the storms hold off until late afternoon Sun as my folks and other extended family will be having a party for a cousin at a Marion's Piazza in Troy, OH.

My gauge picked up .12" from overnight / early this morning. Update: .12" final for the day.

Currently 73 here in G'ville.

Only a 30%-40% POPs for this evening as the Redlegs host the Braves for a 3 game series this weekend.

Can Cincy keep it rolling for a possible 12th in a row win tonight? Stay tuned!

76 today. the warmest part of the day was in that 5-6pm window when we finally ended the day with a bity of sunshine.

12 IN A ROW!!

Get ready for a steamy weekend on tap. Expecting dry conditions today with strong to severe storms between 6-11pm Sunday.