Absolute Vorticity

Wouldn't be shocked to see a "D0" outline in our area on the next drought index map update. Man the north TX Panhandle has been cashing in on our dry pattern. Almost looks like a lake there due to all the rain. I bet their drought numbers take a nosedive on the next update.

Good Afternoon and made it back from SC. One more trip in mid-June and that will be the last time I go to SC except for Hilton Head lol. Beautiful weather here and down there was wonderful for this time of year. No doubt we can get a short term drought and usually sometime between June and October we tend to see one. The funny part is over the past 10-20 years the average rainfall has gone up for many parts of the USA. So we can probably expect to start seeing more years with below normal rainfall but really that brings you back to years in the past. Mother Nature is always busy and these short term drought do not worry me but I do understand the farmers who love to have just the correct amount of rain at the correct time and how that can cause food prices to rise. I can never remember back to back years of drought in this area. Sure we have had some dry years and 2007 stands out but just because where we are located not easy to have those back to back drought years

Welcome Home Tim!

82 as of 3pm. Front has passed with winds now out of the north. The wind will increase this evening and tonight. It'll be breezy tomorrow and much cooler by over 10 degrees from todays high. Still only seeing slim rain chances this weekend. Best chances will be East / SE counties and even then good luck! The heat comes mid to late next week with the upper 80s and continued dry conditions.

I think during the 1st week of June we get another backdoor front to cool us back down. NW flow pattern resumes. Unfortunately, that still means a dry pattern. I don't see any signs of a soaking rainfall at this time. Wish I had better news there but I don't.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 3:14 pm Welcome Home Tim!

82 as of 3pm. Front has passed with winds now out of the north. The wind will increase this evening and tonight. It'll be breezy tomorrow and much cooler by over 10 degrees from todays high. Still only seeing slim rain chances this weekend. Best chances will be East / SE counties and even then good luck! The heat comes mid to late next week with the upper 80s and continued dry conditions.

I think during the 1st week of June we get another backdoor front to cool us back down. NW flow pattern resumes. Unfortunately, that still means a dry pattern. I don't see any signs of a soaking rainfall at this time. Wish I had better news there but I don't.

Hey Les and I have not forgot about the contest. Will have my entry by this weekend.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 3:21 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 3:14 pm Welcome Home Tim!

82 as of 3pm. Front has passed with winds now out of the north. The wind will increase this evening and tonight. It'll be breezy tomorrow and much cooler by over 10 degrees from todays high. Still only seeing slim rain chances this weekend. Best chances will be East / SE counties and even then good luck! The heat comes mid to late next week with the upper 80s and continued dry conditions.

I think during the 1st week of June we get another backdoor front to cool us back down. NW flow pattern resumes. Unfortunately, that still means a dry pattern. I don't see any signs of a soaking rainfall at this time. Wish I had better news there but I don't.

Hey Les and I have not forgot about the contest. Will have my entry by this weekend.

All good my friend. I already knew you were going to be a last second entry. I suspect a few others maybe waiting also to see more extended range thoughts.

12Z Euro is dry until June 1st then has chance POPS. Long ways to go on that one unfortunately.

I hit 84 today, the warmest so far of 2023. CVG topped out at 84 also. A bump in the road tomorrow into the weekend temp wise but the heat is on mid to late next week. It'll be temporary IMO.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 2:15 pm Wouldn't be shocked to see a "D0" outline in our area on the next drought index map update. Man the north TX Panhandle has been cashing in on our dry pattern. Almost looks like a lake there due to all the rain. I bet their drought numbers take a nosedive on the next update.

I have a cousin named Tom whom he and his wife reside in Colorado Springs and they've been cashing in, too.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 3:14 pm Welcome Home Tim!

82 as of 3pm. Front has passed with winds now out of the north. The wind will increase this evening and tonight. It'll be breezy tomorrow and much cooler by over 10 degrees from todays high. Still only seeing slim rain chances this weekend. Best chances will be East / SE counties and even then good luck! The heat comes mid to late next week with the upper 80s and continued dry conditions.

I think during the 1st week of June we get another backdoor front to cool us back down. NW flow pattern resumes. Unfortunately, that still means a dry pattern. I don't see any signs of a soaking rainfall at this time. Wish I had better news there but I don't.

I know we all need rain but for outdoor events like weddings e.g. etc. the weather is stellar.

Looking great for Whitestown, IN near Indy for my cousin Taylor and her fiance Caleb's nuptials at 4:30 this Sat with upper 70s / around 80.

CVG reached 84 and both DAY / CMH 83 on Wed.

Good Morning and another beautiful day in store. This looks to continue for at least another week with temps rising slowly each day. Even next week if temps get closer to 90 the humidity will not be your normal mid-summer type. This set up is more like late August or September and this is why we need to watch the tropics over the next couple of weeks as the pattern does set up where we may see a tropical system or two try to form.

70 or so today guys... much windier to with gusty winds out of the NE. Gorgeous weather thru Sunday with only a slim rain chance possible. Then we turn up the temps, but the humidity looks manageable as Tim mentioned.

This should not come as a shock to anyone:

Dewpoints have dropped to 37 at CVG! Pretty remarkable for late May.

72 / 36 as of this post at CVG. The lowest dew I saw earlier was 34. I'm amazed at this for the time of year. Impressive for our region.

12Z Euro continues to show that we need to wait until June for a good shot at rain.

tron777 wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 4:53 pm 12Z Euro continues to show that we need to wait until June for a good shot at rain.

Currently the outlook e.g. on Weather Underground shows a chance of scattered t-storms for here in Greenville on Sat June 3rd.

CVG got to 72 and both DAY / CMH 70 today.

I don’t see any changes over the next 10-12 days meaning I don’t see any soaking rains for the Midwest or Ohio valley. The flow over this area is practically non existent . Hopefully we see some changes during the second week of June in motion

We are heading to SC at the end of next week. I'm hoping the tropics are quiet until we get back.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 8:36 pm I don’t see any changes over the next 10-12 days meaning I don’t see any soaking rains for the Midwest or Ohio valley. The flow over this area is practically non existent . Hopefully we see some changes during the second week of June in motion

I have to unfortunately agree. I see some 50 / 5- chances in early June which is better then a zero (like what we're seeing right now). But anything in that 1/2"+ category for a widespread portion of the area... I am with you, that remains to be seen. D0 should be getting close next week, and in 2 weeks D0 should be into a portion of our area IMO.

49 this morning at CVG. 50 when I checked my station around 7:30am, so I probably had 49 too. Gorgeous day in progress! Same for tomorrow. Clouds on Sunday with a slim shower chance especially E / SE. That'll knock temps down into the lower to middle 70s. 80s are back for Memorial Day. Mid to U80s likely Tues onwards. 50 / 50 shot at a t-storm next Fri and Sat. Temps back towards 80 by late next weekend as another cool shot of air moves in.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Thu May 25, 2023 8:36 pm I don’t see any changes over the next 10-12 days meaning I don’t see any soaking rains for the Midwest or Ohio valley. The flow over this area is practically non existent . Hopefully we see some changes during the second week of June in motion

Yep and I checked the WU extended a few minutes ago and now dry through about Sun the 4th.

ILN has a 20% POP for my hood Sat night and Sun. Whoop-tey-doo!

12Z GFS has the biggest rain chance on 6/9. A small shot on the 4th. 12Z Euro has the best shot also on the 4th on its model run. Gonna be a while by the looks of things folks.