Absolute Vorticity

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 32 expected.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana,
Northern Kentucky and Southwest and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation.

45 at my house as of 1pm, 43 at CVG. Don't think we are going to even see 50 today.

If you want frost tonight, then you'd better lose the blanket.

Our current wx pattern sucks and so do the Redlegs!

And The Tigers:


47 was it for my hood today. CVG had 48. Normal is 68. Impressive! Expecting 50s tomorrow with less in the way of clouds. Not sure about frost tonight if clouds hold on. You see the visible before the sun goes down. You make the call.

Good morning! 29 here with some frost. 31 at least at CVG.

Good Morning Les and glad your back in town. Made it home Sunday and only one more trip to SC and that part is finished. Only got to 32 here and though the grass is wet I see no frost that formed. At least some sun today makes it seem nicer and I can mow the grass.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 8:00 am Good Morning Les and glad your back in town. Made it home Sunday and only one more trip to SC and that part is finished. Only got to 32 here and though the grass is wet I see no frost that formed. At least some sun today makes it seem nicer and I can mow the grass.

Thanks Tim, likewise! I know you'll enjoy the winters more now once you're in Wisc versus having to witness it in SC. Yeah,. as long as the wind doesn't come up, the sun today should feel halfway decent.

Last week of April and before the month ends we may be close to normal for temps for the year. Hard to believe after a very mild winter but Mother Nature always will try to balance things out in her own way. Precip wise we should be around 10p/c above normal for the year though probably below for the month of April.

Had our Company's outing yesterday at KI, WOW it was COLD! Still had a good time, but didn't stay all that long. Hoping we're finally turning the corner, it's like we got a crappy shaft job of a winter so it just won't go away now. Bring on the Climate Change!

Yes it was cold yesterday especially coming back from SC. I still believe as we get into the middle and end of May a nice warming trend that may even turn hot towards the end of the month if we have a dry month. Expecting June and probably the first part of July to be hot but the second half of the summer could end up below normal but that also could be determined by how dry we are during the spring.

36 for me as clouds hung on most of the night

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 9:01 am Last week of April and before the month ends we may be close to normal for temps for the year. Hard to believe after a very mild winter but Mother Nature always will try to balance things out in her own way. Precip wise we should be around 10p/c above normal for the year though probably below for the month of April.

Hi Tim,

I sure hope she'll come to her senses at least by Memorial Day weekend as my folks, myself, sister, bil e.g. will be going to a cousin's outdoor wedding in Indiana on Sat 5/27.

Another frost advisory in effect for everyone for tonight. Still only 48 as of 4pm at CVG.... very chilly for the time of year. Next rain chance comes late Thurs but most of the rain could stay to our south. A cut off low impacts everyone sometime this weekend into early next week. That takes us into May so the 1st 7-10 days of May in my eyes also looks to be mainly below avg. I do not see highs getting to 70+ for the next 1 to possibly 2 weeks.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 9:27 am Yes it was cold yesterday especially coming back from SC. I still believe as we get into the middle and end of May a nice warming trend that may even turn hot towards the end of the month if we have a dry month. Expecting June and probably the first part of July to be hot but the second half of the summer could end up below normal but that also could be determined by how dry we are during the spring.

Sure hope so bro!

Good evening all! Finally have some time for a nice good ole fashioned classic Les weather post. I managed 51 today. CVG had the same. Clouds have cleared or are in the process of clearing at most locations per the latest visible, so once the winds relax, another frosty morning appears possible. As I said earlier, a frost advisory is in effect once again tonight for all locations in case you've missed it.

Well folks... we seem to find ourselves in a wintry pattern but unfortunately it is April almost May. The pattern consists of blocking with a ridge over AK / NW Canada and the West Coast of North America (-EPO, +PNA) and blocking over Greenland for the other ridge. (-NAO) This is keeping the cold pattern locked in. Over the winter, we had this combo in December which produced the big cold snap and Christmas Blizz. A spring time version is now here and differences is cloudy, cool, showery like pattern with frosty mornings if you get clear skies, light winds. Most of the Ensemble guidance I have seen keeps the Tellies the same thru about May 10th.

From an MJO standpoint, it is going thru the colder phases as we speak. Phase 8 a week ago and it got into Phase 1 about 3 days ago. The current forecast models show it getting into the COD eventually then during the 2nd week of May to post 5/10 period, a possible re-emergence into the Maritime Continent (Phase 5 then 6). Phase 5 is still cool but Phase 6 is much above normal. Phase 7 also warm in May. So I suspect that we will remain cool thru about Mother's Day (give or take) then go ahead and plant as a warming trend will ensue and the cool, showery, cut off low / blocking type of pattern should give way to more ridging in the East, troughing in the West (-PNA). We will continue to monitor the timing on all of this. Just my current early thinking on everything here. Definitely looking like a cool KY Derby this year too.

Bgoney kept us updated on El Nino in my absence, so thanks to him for doing such a great job! It continues to intensify and will do so throughout the summer IMO. Its impacts on our summer and the tropics are yet to be seen.

18Z GFS is probably an outlier but it lingers the cut off upper low over the Lakes which impacts us with clouds, showers and cool temps for most of next week. Lovely... The below animation runs from this weekend thru Sat morning of next weekend.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2023 4:43 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:27 am pretty good day of fishing yesterday. caught 15 kept 4 for eating. no size though. weather conditions were nice and cool cloudy breezy temps around 50. a nice hoodie kind of day

Sounds great Charles! What kind of fish are they?

Trout
I went out again this morning and caught 8 and kept 2 premium size for eating. I have 10 in the freezer currently

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:01 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2023 4:43 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:27 am pretty good day of fishing yesterday. caught 15 kept 4 for eating. no size though. weather conditions were nice and cool cloudy breezy temps around 50. a nice hoodie kind of day

Sounds great Charles! What kind of fish are they?

Trout
I went out again this morning and caught 8 and kept 2 premium size for eating. I have 10 in the freezer currently

Sounds great bro!

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:49 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 11:01 pm

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2023 4:43 pm

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 19, 2023 8:27 am pretty good day of fishing yesterday. caught 15 kept 4 for eating. no size though. weather conditions were nice and cool cloudy breezy temps around 50. a nice hoodie kind of day

Sounds great Charles! What kind of fish are they?

Trout
I went out again this morning and caught 8 and kept 2 premium size for eating. I have 10 in the freezer currently

Sounds great bro!

Smoked trout is fantastic!

No frost here this morning but did drop into the mid 30s. Not much change to the forecast guys. Shower chances are slim until Thurs night into Fri where the highest chances occur. The cut off low continues the shower chances into the weekend as well as early next week. The 50s to the mid 60s continues to be the temps expected for highs with 30s and 40s at night.

31 and heavy frost throughout east side, opposite of yesterday . Nothing says hello May like a Miller A

Good Morning and got down to 33 this morning but frost was lets say moderate in the neighborhood. The late week and through the weekend is looking like a cool and rainy outcome. No it won't rain all the time but for the last few days of April its just plain ugly. Les I believe the warmth does come back in May and would not be surprised at all if we end up getting hot towards the end of the month and for late May hot imo is over 85 degrees.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Apr 25, 2023 8:17 am Good Morning and got down to 33 this morning but frost was lets say moderate in the neighborhood. The late week and through the weekend is looking like a cool and rainy outcome. No it won't rain all the time but for the last few days of April its just plain ugly. Les I believe the warmth does come back in May and would not be surprised at all if we end up getting hot towards the end of the month and for late May hot imo is over 85 degrees.

Good morning Tim! You saw my call from last night. We'll just have to wait and see because the models will probably be too quick on some runs with getting the upper low out of here. I'd go slower personally due to the blocking pattern we're in.

A frosty 31 here this morning.