Absolute Vorticity

Per KY Mesonet, it looks like the warm front is pushing its way up into Central KY. 41 with an ENE wind at the Boone Co mesonet site. But if you go down towards Bullitt Co it is almost 60 degrees with a SE wind.

It wouldn’t surprise me if SPC pulls the enhanced even a bit further north in later updates to include more of the tri-state.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:45 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:25 am SPC update now has the enhanced risk up to Cincinnati. 10% hatched TOR in central KY, still 5% for us. Wind hatched area is now for the Tri-state on south, Hail risk is very low. Low pressure continues to deepen now down to 988 MB.

Now down to 984. Beast!

It may bottom out to the 970s which I think allows for the low to track NW of us so the Triple Point could be NKY, CVG Metro area. That is my concern. Hope I am dead wrong about that.

Your concerns are valid. SPC is noticing as well with the pull northward in risk area. Everyone be weather weather this afternoon! With a powerhouse low pressure nearby, tornadoes are a concern. Cell movement will be very fast as well so warning times will be lower than usual today.

Great Post Trevor. The main concern like you mentioned is the warning period. Also later today if the cloud cover is still in place makes it even harder to see with the lower clouds and radar shown tornado signals will be needed. Still only 41 at my house with pressure at 29.49 and falling

Closing in on 1" rain in my hood so far and still pouring. Temp sitting at 40.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:45 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:25 am SPC update now has the enhanced risk up to Cincinnati. 10% hatched TOR in central KY, still 5% for us. Wind hatched area is now for the Tri-state on south, Hail risk is very low. Low pressure continues to deepen now down to 988 MB.

Now down to 984. Beast!

It may bottom out to the 970s which I think allows for the low to track NW of us so the Triple Point could be NKY, CVG Metro area. That is my concern. Hope I am dead wrong about that.

Your concerns are valid. SPC is noticing as well with the pull northward in risk area. Everyone be weather weather this afternoon! With a powerhouse low pressure nearby, tornadoes are a concern. Cell movement will be very fast as well so warning times will be lower than usual today.

This maybe a case where the dynamics are enough to trump the lack of CAPE. Any CAPE we do see will only add to the concern. I have an uneasy feeling about this event.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:52 am It wouldn’t surprise me if SPC pulls the enhanced even a bit further north in later updates to include more of the tri-state.

Strongly agree....

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:54 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:50 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:45 am

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:44 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:25 am SPC update now has the enhanced risk up to Cincinnati. 10% hatched TOR in central KY, still 5% for us. Wind hatched area is now for the Tri-state on south, Hail risk is very low. Low pressure continues to deepen now down to 988 MB.

Now down to 984. Beast!

It may bottom out to the 970s which I think allows for the low to track NW of us so the Triple Point could be NKY, CVG Metro area. That is my concern. Hope I am dead wrong about that.

Your concerns are valid. SPC is noticing as well with the pull northward in risk area. Everyone be weather weather this afternoon! With a powerhouse low pressure nearby, tornadoes are a concern. Cell movement will be very fast as well so warning times will be lower than usual today.

This maybe a case where the dynamics are enough to trump the lack of CAPE. Any CAPE we do see will only add to the concern. I have an uneasy feeling about this event.

I have an uneasy feeling as well, Les.

Also as has been noted, SPC has the tri-state hatched for potentially significant damaging winds. Won’t be your typical 60mph warnings. 70-80mph gusts in severe storms are likely.

As the morning has gone on my concerns have gone up as well. Timing for later afternoon is prime time for severe weather. Seeing southwest Ky getting severe weather even with all the rain and cloud cover shows you how strong this system is getting and still getting stronger. Down to 29.48 with the pressure. The low pressure itself has clearing around the low and if the low is in a perfect spot like southeast Indiana later today the sun could come out for just a bit and add more fire power.

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:57 am Also as has been noted, SPC has the tri-state hatched for potentially significant damaging winds. Won’t be your typical 60mph warnings. 70-80mph gusts in severe storms are likely.

We're already gusting to 30 mph ahead of the warm front. Once it passes (assuming it does) winds will ramp up quickly especially if any sun breaks or thinning of the clouds are realized. That'll be your 60+ mph non t-storm wind gusts. With the LLJ rounding the base of the trough today and really giving the low a much needed kick, 70-80 mph winds above our heads could easily be pushed down to the surface with the t-storms that develop. No doubt about it. Plus, the heavy rains have saturated the soils now too so weak trees could also get toppled. No leaves yet so that is one saving grace.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:59 am As the morning has gone on my concerns have gone up as well. Timing for later afternoon is prime time for severe weather. Seeing southwest Ky getting severe weather even with all the rain and cloud cover shows you how strong this system is getting and still getting stronger. Down to 29.48 with the pressure. The low pressure itself has clearing around the low and if the low is in a perfect spot like southeast Indiana later today the sun could come out for just a bit and add more fire power.

Great post Tim! Those are my concerns as well with the triple point in the area.

Just for laughs.....8 years ago today.

1.07" now at CVG for rainfall. Low is now 982 MB over the confluence of the MS / OH rivers.

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:08 am Just for laughs.....8 years ago today.

Even though we are focused on today, I've got my one eye open on next Fri / going into next weekend time frame.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:11 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:08 am Just for laughs.....8 years ago today.

Even though we are focused on today, I've got my one eye open on next Fri / going into next weekend time frame.

Having a biggie in March would not surprise me in the least the way this winter has performed.

you know this really could end up being a "March to remember" in more ways then one

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:11 am

BookNerdCarp wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:08 am Just for laughs.....8 years ago today.

Even though we are focused on today, I've got my one eye open on next Fri / going into next weekend time frame.

Having a biggie in March would not surprise me in the least the way this winter has performed.

The signals are there for sure. Could be a Nor 'Easter pattern for the East Coast but I also think we could see a low try to run up at us, then it weakens and does the energy transfer to the East Coast low. Very common with blocking patterns. We hope to cash in by having the upper level energy hang back over the Ohio Valley with a slow weakening of the surface low before giving it up to the East Coast low. I could see something like that happening. Or we get an inland runner (East side of the Apps) which if it's a strong low, we'd be in a great spot for deform snowfall. Lots to be interested in once we get past today's storm.

MD Issued to our south - Please read!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0244.html

Also, the new Day1 Outlook has indeed pulled the enhanced risk more northward as Trev and I were discussing. SE IN, SW OH and all of NKY are now under the enhanced risk. 30% hatched for wind. Still 5% tornado but the 10-% hatched risk is still outlined for LOU. Here's the wind risk area:

Currently 37 here in G'ville, 40 DAY and 41 CVG.

ILN has my area progged at topping out at around 48.

Alex Murdaugh was sentenced to 2 consecutive life terms this morning, and rightfully so, for the brutal murders of his wife Maggie and younger son Paul.

Okay, back to weather ...

Pressure at my house 29.44 and falling. Can we get below the magical number of 29.00. Very seldom see that happening of course. Sorry make that 29.43. The rain has almost stop though with a temp at 42

Trevor wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 10:52 am It wouldn’t surprise me if SPC pulls the enhanced even a bit further north in later updates to include more of the tri-state.

Per my suspicions, SPC did indeed nudge the enhanced a bit further north on their latest outlook.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 11:21 am MD Issued to our south - Please read!

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0244.html

Also, the new Day1 Outlook has indeed pulled the enhanced risk more northward as Trev and I were discussing. SE IN, SW OH and all of NKY are now under the enhanced risk. 30% hatched for wind. Still 5% tornado but the 10-% hatched risk is still outlined for LOU. Here's the wind risk area:


day1probotlk_1630_wind.gif

Yup pretty much as we were expecting!

Yes Sir Trev... so far everything seems to be progressing towards our thoughts.

My nephew Jared and niece in law Madi down in Nashville also "under the gun."

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible

Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible