Absolute Vorticity

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:22 pm Have not thought to much about a coastal system and the area of disturbed weather along the GOM is moving slowly and may head up the east coast. Could there be a storm that forms besides the one heading in our direction and it may be possible and they end up being two different storms with little interaction.

I wonder also Tim if that is part of the entire problem of why the big dog solution (while short lived) for us vanished. I think you have discovered the reason why. That "weak wave" system that is moving thru today, remember the one that never phased so it is a cold and dry forecast for early this week? That system has messed up the flow. Currently a 1016 MB low is in the Northern Gulf and that is the southern piece with the northern piece has light snow over portions of MN, Wisc and Iowa. We are of course in no man's land in between the two systems. The northern piece to me isn't the issue, it harmlessly rotates up into SE Canada (can't continue NE due to NAO block). The STJ piece along the N Gulf or S Gulf Coast states continues to weaken in time and is just a small surface reflection in the Bahamas. Well it just kind of sits there for a while. This little feature backs up the flow if you will and allows for enough ridging in front of our storm so the low cuts. It deepens rapidly too so it'll naturally want to cut. If this "weak wave" system would have phased a little bit or if the STJ piece didn't stall near the Bahamas, we'd have a vastly different outcome. Unfortunately, I don't think that we will be seeing many wholescale changes.

I agree Les we all believe its a rather impactful storm and then the timing around the holiday makes it that much more impactful. So yes it comes down to how much snow we get and your earlier thought of 1-4 made perfect sense. As we know even when we get within 24 hours of the system the models are going to bust in certain places and that happens with most storms. Not a perfect science and once we get within that 24 period we have true ground reports and how the storm is developing . I just have pushed the problems with ice and how many stores may not open because employees are unable to make the trip. That is a real concern and I sent out a forecast to my neighbors on Saturday and told them that snow amounts are not known yet but there could be a period of time that we have blizzard conditions. Can we get those for more than 3 hours is what determines a blizzard so even with an hour or two can cause major problems.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:28 pm My friend’s daughter wants to drive to Cincy from Chicago. When do things get dicey up there?

Thanks for your insight!

Hey Lisa! Things for Chicago IMO should go downhill sometime on Thursday. Maybe afternoon or so? I'd get out early Thurs morning at the latest personally. Our conditions won't go downhill until Thurs night. Guessing around the midnight hour at this time, subject to change.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:28 pm My friend’s daughter wants to drive to Cincy from Chicago. When do things get dicey up there?

Thanks for your insight!

I would have your friends daughter get there by late Wednesday. I believe this is an explosive storm and when things light up it goes down hill quickly. I can see roads shut down and of course the airports there may be shut down as well starting late Thursday lasting through Saturday. Not sure what the time span is for them to travel but getting there by late Wednesday is probably the best way to go. They may not be able to travel back until Christmas day or so.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:34 pm I agree Les we all believe its a rather impactful storm and then the timing around the holiday makes it that much more impactful. So yes it comes down to how much snow we get and your earlier thought of 1-4 made perfect sense. As we know even when we get within 24 hours of the system the models are going to bust in certain places and that happens with most storms. Not a perfect science and once we get within that 24 period we have true ground reports and how the storm is developing . I just have pushed the problems with ice and how many stores may not open because employees are unable to make the trip. That is a real concern and I sent out a forecast to my neighbors on Saturday and told them that snow amounts are not known yet but there could be a period of time that we have blizzard conditions. Can we get those for more than 3 hours is what determines a blizzard so even with an hour or two can cause major problems.

Even a couple of inches of snow with winds gusts in excess of 35 mph for a sustained 3 hour period is a blizzard. Oh and visibility also for 3 hours needs to be a 1/4 mile or less. Anyway, you're absolutely right. It's not the amount that falls which most people (the common public, not us weather geeks LOL), they just don't understand that. Most people think you need 6-12" for a blizzard and that is 100% false.

Les like I mentioned earlier most blizzards are of course towards the arctic circle and I would guess 80p/c have an inch of snow or less. The problem is they have conditions where they last for days.

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:35 pm

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:28 pm My friend’s daughter wants to drive to Cincy from Chicago. When do things get dicey up there?

Thanks for your insight!

Hey Lisa! Things for Chicago IMO should go downhill sometime on Thursday. Maybe afternoon or so? I'd get out early Thurs morning at the latest personally. Our conditions won't go downhill until Thurs night. Guessing around the midnight hour at this time, subject to change.

Thanks Les!!

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:41 pm Les like I mentioned earlier most blizzards are of course towards the arctic circle and I would guess 80p/c have an inch of snow or less. The problem is they have conditions where they last for days.

No doubt! They have the longevity factor up north when the blocking is right and the low gets stuck for a few days.

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:43 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:35 pm

Browneyedgirl wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:28 pm My friend’s daughter wants to drive to Cincy from Chicago. When do things get dicey up there?

Thanks for your insight!

Hey Lisa! Things for Chicago IMO should go downhill sometime on Thursday. Maybe afternoon or so? I'd get out early Thurs morning at the latest personally. Our conditions won't go downhill until Thurs night. Guessing around the midnight hour at this time, subject to change.

Thanks Les!!

No problem! It's the best guess I have at the moment. Getting out early is key. You know other folks will have the same idea. Even leaving on Wednesday as Tim mentioned is a good idea if it's possible just from a traffic standpoint alone.

I keep reading about hazardous travel. Are people thinking flights will be cancelled, or just that driving will be tough.

18Z Euro did bump SE of the 12Z run. End result for us really isn't any different since it literally was a bump and not a dramatic shift. But we are monitoring trends. As Bgoney mentioned, the 0Z runs tomorrow night will have a full sampling of this system.

magseb5 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:51 pm I keep reading about hazardous travel. Are people thinking flights will be cancelled, or just that driving will be tough.

Flights will absolutely be cancelled in places like Chicago, Milwaukee. Detroit will have delays and probably some closures. Indy will have the same. Chicago is a major hub so it will have ripple effects across the country, Chicago if the data is right will be completely shut down (air and land) for a while. Probably Milwaukee too, Western and Upper Michigan. It's going to be a mess!

18Z RGEM bumped SE from it's 12Z run. We'll see with the 0Z main runs tonight if we've got a trend of a system that takes a little longer to blow up and thus the more Southern and mainly more eastern solutions. I still think that the ongoing forecast for snowfall is good at this time.

https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/ ... 9548068864

Bernie Rayno this evening. Video is challenging at best. He thinks the upper low is coming east. Says 3 to 4 inches in Cincinnati but later in the video says 3 to 6 for Cincinnati. Also said Dayton will be close to blizzard. Time will tell....

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:54 pm

magseb5 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 7:51 pm I keep reading about hazardous travel. Are people thinking flights will be cancelled, or just that driving will be tough.

Flights will absolutely be cancelled in places like Chicago, Milwaukee. Detroit will have delays and probably some closures. Indy will have the same. Chicago is a major hub so it will have ripple effects across the country, Chicago if the data is right will be completely shut down (air and land) for a while. Probably Milwaukee too, Western and Upper Michigan. It's going to be a mess!

Also CVG, DAY, CMH and CLE e.g., too.

"Planes, Trains and Automobiles" terminal situation.

snowbo wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 8:36 pm https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/ ... 9548068864

Bernie Rayno this evening. Video is challenging at best. He thinks the upper low is coming east. Says 3 to 4 inches in Cincinnati but later in the video says 3 to 6 for Cincinnati. Also said Dayton will be close to blizzard. Time will tell....

He is holding to the farther east track isn't he? The model runs from this afternoon (12z and18z) support a slight eastward shift. Maybe the sampling of the energy coming into the Pacific coast isn't as strong as the models once thought? If so, the eastward shift could continue. If not, it is what it is.

lets see what tonights runs show. we should have it nailed down by tomorrow at some point

My cousin and her family from VA Beach drive straight through and have opted to arrive sometime Thurs instead of Fri at her folks here in Greenville which is a wise decision.

Currently 19 here in G'ville just 1 degree from the progged 18 for Tues morning.

snowbo wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 8:36 pm https://twitter.com/accuweather/status/ ... 9548068864

Bernie Rayno this evening. Video is challenging at best. He thinks the upper low is coming east. Says 3 to 4 inches in Cincinnati but later in the video says 3 to 6 for Cincinnati. Also said Dayton will be close to blizzard. Time will tell....

Wow. Great video!! He has a way to explain complex stuff and make it understandable

What is the timing (as close as is possible this far out)?

The trend continues to be our friend. We are teetering at the moment. Any farther east with this trend and we are in for quite the storm. Back west a bit and we are on the edge looking in.

From what I have been reading, the entire 0z suite has trended East. Back in the game, for now at least

Euro dry slots the entire state and we get an inch, GFS says 3”, NAM gives us 6”. We definitely got NAM’ed

Will be curious to see if the 12z suite continues this eastward trend.

One thing is certain - Friday looks absolutely nasty whether it be snow or just the bitter cold and dangerous wind chills.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Dec 20, 2022 5:23 am 8E23C7A0-7EAC-4E92-AACA-C57A3C0FFA74.jpeg
61C5241B-5054-43EE-AFB0-19A5F58C7A36.jpeg
C8A1C7A6-029F-457F-B7C4-598BD2CC3E86.jpeg

Euro dry slots the entire state and we get an inch, GFS says 3”, NAM gives us 6”. We definitely got NAM’ed

That Euro map only goes to 10am on Friday morning. Same with the Nam, Friday morning. There is much more accumulation if you extend those runs through the rest of the storm.