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Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 6:24 am
by tpweather
Glad to see a few folks saw some flakes. Nothing at my house plus the temp is 36. No frost plus the ground is so dry its hard for frost to form. Another cold day in store and again a chance of few flakes this morning and again this evening. Temps will be reliant on how much cloud cover and winds overnight. Nice warm up later this week into the weekend.. Concerning precip later next week and I am more bullish than the models and forecasters but we still have time to look at the pattern and see what shakes out.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:13 am
by Bgoney
Nice dusting for Louisville
Screenshot_20221018-071128_Twitter.jpg
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:13 am
by tpweather
I see where the NWS at CVG recorded a trace of snow overnight.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:16 am
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:13 am
Nice dusting for Louisville
Screenshot_20221018-071128_Twitter.jpg
I see where the NWS at SDF is reporting snow and rain mix. My guess outlying areas is mainly snow in that area. The coldest temps as expected are much further to the southwest of us where the winds were lighter and the sky clearer.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 7:39 am
by tron777
If I had flakes here, I was asleep
36 here too, no frost thanks to clouds and wind. Clouds and / or wind may inhibit big temp drops again for tonight. Thurs morning ought to do it as the cold finally begins to retreat.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:13 am
by tron777
For rain chances next week... now we've got the GFS bringing the front in later Tues, stalling it out for decent rain chances on Wed and Thurs with another cut off low and cool air mass to deal with after that. The GFS stalls the front thanks to a possible tropical like system getting involved. Kind of a crazy look to it lol The Euro blows the front thru with little rain but a secondary low comes in Wed for a shot of some rainfall. Still, not very beneficial. The GFS solution would help. Way too early to know what'll happen yet with this next system. Until then, we are cold now, but an awesome Friday and weekend is on tap! 70s this weekend and into early next week ahead of that aforementioned storm system.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:14 am
by tron777
BG Tweeted this from his hood earlier this morning!
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:22 am
by tron777
Here is an animation showing precip type of that off the wall GFS Fantasy run... first decent one of the year for us!
GooFuS.gif
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:23 am
by tron777
Then... we have some breaking news for you movie buffs out there. I know Trev, our fearless leader will love this. It appears that they are finalizing plans to make a sequel of the movie Twister! One of my fav weather movies ever!
https://deadline.com/2022/10/twisters-s ... 235147353/
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:32 am
by tron777
In addition to CVG recording a trace of snow prior to midnight, DAY managed to do the same. We'll see what the climate report shows for after midnight, meaning today, later. If you have not entered in your contest entry, you have until Halloween to do so. Hopefully this snow talk will get your minds in the mood.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:41 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:23 am
Then... we have some breaking news for you movie buffs out there. I know Trev, our fearless leader will love this. It appears that they are finalizing plans to make a sequel of the movie Twister! One of my fav weather movies ever!
https://deadline.com/2022/10/twisters-s ... 235147353/
Love the movie and big Helen Hunt fan
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:46 am
by tpweather
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:22 am
Here is an animation showing precip type of that off the wall GFS Fantasy run... first decent one of the year for us!
GooFuS.gifLes after you posted that graphic I had to look at the models. I was going to wait until this weekend to see how the pattern shaped up before looking at the models but that graphic peaked my interest.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:00 am
by tron777
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:46 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 8:22 am
Here is an animation showing precip type of that off the wall GFS Fantasy run... first decent one of the year for us!
GooFuS.gifLes after you posted that graphic I had to look at the models. I was going to wait until this weekend to see how the pattern shaped up before looking at the models but that graphic peaked my interest.
It's not impossible, what the GFS is showing, but low occurrence as you know. For the past several days, that model has been showing a more substantial system next week versus the Euro. GEFS has a little support, not much. Not seeing any support yet from the EPS or CMC models.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 9:11 am
by tpweather
My thought process Les is the pattern supports some development in the GOM. Does not mean its tropical in nature but the western GOM is primed and ready for action. As you know I pay little attention to the models until about 3-5 days away from a decent event. The models just go back and forth or in this case really not on the same page like you mentioned. I hope we get some rain as this has been the driest at my house in several years. Lucky its in October and not in mid-summer.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:08 am
by Bgoney
Yea that GFS long range scenario is wonky at best. Best I can say atm for the long range is we stay above normal temp wise going into Nov. QPF as mentioned needs several days to assess. I would say that the GOM would appear to increase qpf ,but atm I would lean that would be more to our west due to strong blocking.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:16 am
by tron777
Nice posts gents! I also wanted to mention that the MJO looks to be on the move finally in Phase 6 just about ready to cross into 7. That is mostly a mild pattern in a Nina for October for the majority of the Lower 48 minus the SW and NE corners of the country. So with that said, that matches up well with our long term thinking here with regards to above avg temps. I do not see a blow torch at this time but 60s and 70s are a good bet. Just so folks know, the normal high right now at CVG is 66 degrees so mid 70s is 10 degrees above avg mind you, but not earth shattering warmth or anything.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:18 am
by tron777
Wow... per BG at LOU:
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:52 am
by House of Cards
I looked to see if any flakes were falling out my way last night, didn't see any. Now we watch and see how the winds impact my Halloween decorations. But with the ground as dry as it's been I am hopeful the various poles are pretty solid in the ground. We'll see how the "corn field" looks later when I get home.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:59 am
by Bgoney
I'm sure this will get picked up by the MSM climate change dept. once they get a hold of this , but I'm at 6+ weeks since I cut my grass . It's a historical , biblical personal record (for grass growing months) and has affected 2 people nationwide and is a one in a thousand year event. Still not sure when the big day will happen since there's no rain in the forecast, so no harm being done. Oh the humanity!!
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:23 am
by tpweather
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:59 am
I'm sure this will get picked up by the MSM climate change dept. once they get a hold of this , but I'm at 6+ weeks since I cut my grass . It's a historical , biblical personal record (for grass growing months) and has affected 2 people nationwide and is a one in a thousand year event. Still not sure when the big day will happen since there's no rain in the forecast, so no harm being done. Oh the humanity!!
Biggest problem I have is what to do with the ark I built this spring
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:29 am
by Bgoney
tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:23 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:59 am
I'm sure this will get picked up by the MSM climate change dept. once they get a hold of this , but I'm at 6+ weeks since I cut my grass . It's a historical , biblical personal record (for grass growing months) and has affected 2 people nationwide and is a one in a thousand year event. Still not sure when the big day will happen since there's no rain in the forecast, so no harm being done. Oh the humanity!!
Biggest problem I have is what to do with the ark I built this spring
Save it for a rainy day, of course .
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 11:38 am
by tpweather
Cold and late November day in store. We may not get above 45 if the sun does not shine for a few hours. What is more impressive is the freeze warnings in Mississippi,Alabama and Georgia. These places usually have their first freeze in early December.
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 12:00 pm
by tron777
Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Oct 18, 2022 10:59 am
I'm sure this will get picked up by the MSM climate change dept. once they get a hold of this , but I'm at 6+ weeks since I cut my grass . It's a historical , biblical personal record (for grass growing months) and has affected 2 people nationwide and is a one in a thousand year event. Still not sure when the big day will happen since there's no rain in the forecast, so no harm being done. Oh the humanity!!
Better get your igloos built too!
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:10 pm
by tron777
Re: Rocktober 2022 Weather Discussion
Posted: Tue Oct 18, 2022 2:37 pm
by tron777
12Z GFS not as extreme as past runs but still trying to show that idea of the front slowing down thanks to that tropical like low from the Gulf coming in and an upper low dropping in from the north. 12Z CMC trending towards the GFS. The 12Z Euro is coming in now actually and has a big low spinning in NW MN next week with scattered storms moving across IN Monday afternoon intensifying as they approach us Mon evening with a decent looking line on this run.
So the GFS had some snow on the overnight run, now a chilly rain towards the middle of next week. The Euro has a warmer look with strong to severe storms Mon evening. Good news is that we've got tons of time to watch the data.