Absolute Vorticity

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:49 pm 12Z Euro has a slim chance overnight tonight... Same for Wed, with better chances Sun night and Monday of next week. My thoughts on tonight into early Tues are that a line of storms erupts to our NW, outruns the front, then begins to weaken as it pushes in here. Best chance to get wet is NW of Cincy, lowest, SE. Front passes thru during an unfavorable time of day for storm development. Good luck! I do think Sun is better coverage wise due to better timing of the frontal zone. Plus it is slower moving too unlike tomorrow's.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:06 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 2:49 pm 12Z Euro has a slim chance overnight tonight... Same for Wed, with better chances Sun night and Monday of next week. My thoughts on tonight into early Tues are that a line of storms erupts to our NW, outruns the front, then begins to weaken as it pushes in here. Best chance to get wet is NW of Cincy, lowest, SE. Front passes thru during an unfavorable time of day for storm development. Good luck! I do think Sun is better coverage wise due to better timing of the frontal zone. Plus it is slower moving too unlike tomorrow's.

Hey Les, the front next weekend is key imo on how much rain we can get. If we can get the timing correct and have the front move down here this weekend it may be able to grab hold of the tropical moisture to the south and give us a good soaking. Again this time of year we have two things working against us and that timing needs to be almost perfect. Usually fronts only make it so far south and that can lead to you only getting the moisture that is available with the front. Second is tropical moisture has a hard time moving this far north and many times you see a great soaking in the Tn Valley and Gulf States while we remain dry. Then of course it moves off to the east and the Carolina's get soaked. Way to early to see which plays out but I hope everyone can get on some decent rains as after this i worry we may be in a couple week dry spell which of course means the heat will return though the humidity may not be as bad. Concerning humidity and dew points the peak is usually from mid-Jun- mid-July as the nights are shorter plus after mid-July some of the crops grow so much slower and this helps in keeping the dew points somewhat lower. Still can have many days with dew points in the low 70's but getting to the upper 70's is much tougher and is not all that common past mid-summer.

tpweather wrote: ↑Mon Jul 11, 2022 3:08 pm Do we hit 89 or 90 like Les mentioned and a close call and the only thing in our favor this afternoon is the dew point has dropped a degree or two into the upper 60's which gives the air a chance to rise a few more degrees. 87 at 3pm

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 6:46 am Good morning Les. I believe the tropics will be more of a indirect hit and that means enough moisture should make its way close enough as to warrant a chance of showers and thundershowers later in the weekend. With a front nearby it may be able to pull up enough moisture. The front itself will have some moisture but as we know in mid-July that does not always mean rainfall but with some help from the south maybe just maybe we can all get a decent rainfall and I will gladly take an inch at this point. I know Bgoney was talking about La Nina and funny how folks determine whether we are still in a La Nina. Larry Cosgrove a well know met is saying we are neutral and has for the past few weeks. My guess there are so many ways to determine a Enso phase and each met will make his or her own call. We have talked about this over the past few years that even when we have a certain phase of the Enso the weather can act completely different than what we have seen in the past. Many times this is because something else is sort of the bully.

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:09 am Radar looks real sad compared to what most models showed, and they didn't show a whole lot mind you. Just a few spotty showers out there for the I-70 Crew and that's it. We are fair game until midday down here. Once the front passes then it is game over if there even was a game to begin with.

tpweather wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:47 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 7:09 am Radar looks real sad compared to what most models showed, and they didn't show a whole lot mind you. Just a few spotty showers out there for the I-70 Crew and that's it. We are fair game until midday down here. Once the front passes then it is game over if there even was a game to begin with.

Les, I believe neither one of us believed there was going to be much in the way of rainfall. The energy was well to the north plus timing was not good either. The front may fire off a few storms later today in southern Kentucky but even that should be isolated at best.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jul 12, 2022 8:57 am EU hopefully is in the right track for Monday. A slow moving front in the region with a disturance out of the NWflow would be nice