July 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a slim chance overnight tonight... Same for Wed, with better chances Sun night and Monday of next week. My thoughts on tonight into early Tues are that a line of storms erupts to our NW, outruns the front, then begins to weaken as it pushes in here. Best chance to get wet is NW of Cincy, lowest, SE. Front passes thru during an unfavorable time of day for storm development. Good luck! I do think Sun is better coverage wise due to better timing of the frontal zone. Plus it is slower moving too unlike tomorrow's.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro has a slim chance overnight tonight... Same for Wed, with better chances Sun night and Monday of next week. My thoughts on tonight into early Tues are that a line of storms erupts to our NW, outruns the front, then begins to weaken as it pushes in here. Best chance to get wet is NW of Cincy, lowest, SE. Front passes thru during an unfavorable time of day for storm development. Good luck! I do think Sun is better coverage wise due to better timing of the frontal zone. Plus it is slower moving too unlike tomorrow's.

Hey Les, the front next weekend is key imo on how much rain we can get. If we can get the timing correct and have the front move down here this weekend it may be able to grab hold of the tropical moisture to the south and give us a good soaking. Again this time of year we have two things working against us and that timing needs to be almost perfect. Usually fronts only make it so far south and that can lead to you only getting the moisture that is available with the front. Second is tropical moisture has a hard time moving this far north and many times you see a great soaking in the Tn Valley and Gulf States while we remain dry. Then of course it moves off to the east and the Carolina's get soaked. Way to early to see which plays out but I hope everyone can get on some decent rains as after this i worry we may be in a couple week dry spell which of course means the heat will return though the humidity may not be as bad. Concerning humidity and dew points the peak is usually from mid-Jun- mid-July as the nights are shorter plus after mid-July some of the crops grow so much slower and this helps in keeping the dew points somewhat lower. Still can have many days with dew points in the low 70's but getting to the upper 70's is much tougher and is not all that common past mid-summer.

[tpweather]

Do we hit 89 or 90 like Les mentioned and a close call and the only thing in our favor this afternoon is the dew point has dropped a degree or two into the upper 60's which gives the air a chance to rise a few more degrees. 87 at 3pm

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a slim chance overnight tonight... Same for Wed, with better chances Sun night and Monday of next week. My thoughts on tonight into early Tues are that a line of storms erupts to our NW, outruns the front, then begins to weaken as it pushes in here. Best chance to get wet is NW of Cincy, lowest, SE. Front passes thru during an unfavorable time of day for storm development. Good luck! I do think Sun is better coverage wise due to better timing of the frontal zone. Plus it is slower moving too unlike tomorrow's.

Hey Les, the front next weekend is key imo on how much rain we can get. If we can get the timing correct and have the front move down here this weekend it may be able to grab hold of the tropical moisture to the south and give us a good soaking. Again this time of year we have two things working against us and that timing needs to be almost perfect. Usually fronts only make it so far south and that can lead to you only getting the moisture that is available with the front. Second is tropical moisture has a hard time moving this far north and many times you see a great soaking in the Tn Valley and Gulf States while we remain dry. Then of course it moves off to the east and the Carolina's get soaked. Way to early to see which plays out but I hope everyone can get on some decent rains as after this i worry we may be in a couple week dry spell which of course means the heat will return though the humidity may not be as bad. Concerning humidity and dew points the peak is usually from mid-Jun- mid-July as the nights are shorter plus after mid-July some of the crops grow so much slower and this helps in keeping the dew points somewhat lower. Still can have many days with dew points in the low 70's but getting to the upper 70's is much tougher and is not all that common past mid-summer.

I'd love for a TD to develop and inject more moisture further north but timing is key to this idea also. Need the TD or whatever it is to move north at the same time the front is coming in. Hard to do the dance in the summer with the steering currents so weak.

[tron777]

Do we hit 89 or 90 like Les mentioned and a close call and the only thing in our favor this afternoon is the dew point has dropped a degree or two into the upper 60's which gives the air a chance to rise a few more degrees. 87 at 3pm

I have a comment here too.,.. (When don't I) Going to be tough for 89-90 also due to clouds. Not seeing wall to wall sun anymore. Debris clouds from convection over MI.

[Bgoney]

Checking on the LaNina after a long break and not much has changed, coming in at a respectable -.50 and expect it to maintain as the Trades are blowing strong. That also tells us that the MJO will have nothing to do with the west Pac whenever it becomes active again which is also a broken record for the year

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[tron777]

Like we keep saying Bgoney, it'll take the tropics or something major to shake up the pattern. I expect La Nina to continue into the Fall. Enso cold neutral or whatever for the upcoming winter, (the jury is out on whatever form ENSO takes), the point is, these excessive hurricane forecasts, I wonder if they may bust? Cold snowy winter, weak Nino coming is already being touted. Hold on Wilbur IMO...

[tron777]

88 at CVG, 87 here. Just missed it. I don't see another 90 for a while.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and no rainfall so far and a sprinkle or very light shower may occur this morning but most folks remain dry. A couple of changes to the forecast and the reason is the system near the gulf coast. Tropical systems are the main reasons models tend to fail in the summer and early fall and though this is not a major change it shows how one system can affect the models. So the system in the gulf may not form into a true tropical system but there will be some decent rains in the southeast 1/4 of the USA. Locally this sort of keeps us from getting the nice weather to last longer than forecasts showed before so by Friday we are back to normal so enjoy Thursday as the pick of the week. Question is do we get wet this weekend and chances are somewhat better than yesterday but not a sure thing at this point. The models are showing the heat to our west will remain there for the most part and I believe this is the tropical system sort of messing with the models. I believe it only delays the heat from getting in here and I am still expecting some heat and dry weather for much of the second half of July

[tron777]

Good morning all! Rain chances are small this morning as we've said. A 10% chance tomorrow afternoon also. Dry Thurs - Fri. Sun and Mon offer up our next scattered chances. Still don't know about coverage due to the uncertainty in the tropics. Right now, the chances of the tropics getting involved are low.

[tpweather]

Good morning Les. I believe the tropics will be more of a indirect hit and that means enough moisture should make its way close enough as to warrant a chance of showers and thundershowers later in the weekend. With a front nearby it may be able to pull up enough moisture. The front itself will have some moisture but as we know in mid-July that does not always mean rainfall but with some help from the south maybe just maybe we can all get a decent rainfall and I will gladly take an inch at this point. I know Bgoney was talking about La Nina and funny how folks determine whether we are still in a La Nina. Larry Cosgrove a well know met is saying we are neutral and has for the past few weeks. My guess there are so many ways to determine a Enso phase and each met will make his or her own call. We have talked about this over the past few years that even when we have a certain phase of the Enso the weather can act completely different than what we have seen in the past. Many times this is because something else is sort of the bully.

[tron777]

Good morning Les. I believe the tropics will be more of a indirect hit and that means enough moisture should make its way close enough as to warrant a chance of showers and thundershowers later in the weekend. With a front nearby it may be able to pull up enough moisture. The front itself will have some moisture but as we know in mid-July that does not always mean rainfall but with some help from the south maybe just maybe we can all get a decent rainfall and I will gladly take an inch at this point. I know Bgoney was talking about La Nina and funny how folks determine whether we are still in a La Nina. Larry Cosgrove a well know met is saying we are neutral and has for the past few weeks. My guess there are so many ways to determine a Enso phase and each met will make his or her own call. We have talked about this over the past few years that even when we have a certain phase of the Enso the weather can act completely different than what we have seen in the past. Many times this is because something else is sort of the bully.

There is only 1 true definition of ENSO per the CPC. The problem are different ways of getting the data and the differences in how it is calculated. Different people get their data from different sources. The Aussies are one of the best of terms of data and its accuracy. I feel the CPC is usually behind the 8 ball.

[tron777]

Per the last Aussie update, La Nina, a weak one is likely thru the fall along with a weakly -IOD.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


It is still debatable if the Nina can hold on thru winter but I'd go with ENSO neutral cold conditions anyway. A Nina hangover if you will.

[tron777]

I think the Euro is overdone for this morning, but it does hammer us Sun into Monday.

[tron777]

Radar looks real sad compared to what most models showed, and they didn't show a whole lot mind you. Just a few spotty showers out there for the I-70 Crew and that's it. We are fair game until midday down here. Once the front passes then it is game over if there even was a game to begin with.

[tpweather]

Radar looks real sad compared to what most models showed, and they didn't show a whole lot mind you. Just a few spotty showers out there for the I-70 Crew and that's it. We are fair game until midday down here. Once the front passes then it is game over if there even was a game to begin with.

Les, I believe neither one of us believed there was going to be much in the way of rainfall. The energy was well to the north plus timing was not good either. The front may fire off a few storms later today in southern Kentucky but even that should be isolated at best.

[tron777]

Radar looks real sad compared to what most models showed, and they didn't show a whole lot mind you. Just a few spotty showers out there for the I-70 Crew and that's it. We are fair game until midday down here. Once the front passes then it is game over if there even was a game to begin with.

Les, I believe neither one of us believed there was going to be much in the way of rainfall. The energy was well to the north plus timing was not good either. The front may fire off a few storms later today in southern Kentucky but even that should be isolated at best.

I never expected a lot of coverage either but this is pretty pathetic.

[cloudy72]

Only dropped to 74 here this morning so quite muggy. Just not a lot of ingredients IMO until this front slides east of us and affects the Northeast and Mid Atlantic (for the millionth time this year it seems LOL).

[cloudy72]

8:50am - Looks like the front is on a line from Versailles IN to Springboro to Zanesville. A couple blips across Butler County and most of the showers are currently east of Columbus at this time.

[tron777]

The trends have been for storms to blow up east of us. Just hope that stops come winter. 72 here this morning, 73 CVG.

[Bgoney]

EU hopefully is in the right track for Monday. A slow moving front in the region with a disturance out of the NWflow would be nice

[tron777]

EU hopefully is in the right track for Monday. A slow moving front in the region with a disturance out of the NWflow would be nice

It is the strongest model with the tropical system coming into the SE US as well. So the front has no choice but the slow down and we get some of the TS's moisture injested into the cold front. GFS has scattered coverage since it's not as robust with the tropics. I'd like to see something in reality develop down there in the next couple of days or this won't have a chance.

[tron777]

Front is moving into the Tri-state now. One loan shower in N Highland Co,. That's it.

[cloudy72]

Looks like there were a couple lucky souls across southern Butler, Warren and Clinton counties that got a ground wetter or a bit more.

[tron777]

Nothing but sunshine here