Absolute Vorticity

Maps for illustrative purposes:

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 1:13 pm

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 1:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 12:55 pm It looks like a new low comes up along the front for Tues. Looking active at some point this weekend on into next week if this is correct.

I'm just hoping action holds out Friday evening as I have an outdoor show!

So far to me it is still looking to be dry. It should stay that way with easterly flow beginning tomorrow and lasting thru Friday before we turn around to the south again with the storm chances then beginning this weekend. This is the current expectation as long as nothing changes.

Shoot! I meant Sat., not fri. lol

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 1:51 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 1:13 pm

rhodesman88 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 1:00 pm

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 12:55 pm It looks like a new low comes up along the front for Tues. Looking active at some point this weekend on into next week if this is correct.

I'm just hoping action holds out Friday evening as I have an outdoor show!

So far to me it is still looking to be dry. It should stay that way with easterly flow beginning tomorrow and lasting thru Friday before we turn around to the south again with the storm chances then beginning this weekend. This is the current expectation as long as nothing changes.

Shoot! I meant Sat., not fri. lol

D'oh! There will be scattered storms in play. A little early to know how much the coverage will be.

12Z Euro keeps us dry Byron... cheer for that solution.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 2:09 pm 12Z Euro keeps us dry Byron... cheer for that solution.

Cheers to the EURO!!! We'll see... Thanks!

Whoops, I apologize. I mis-posted. Scattered storms are showing up Sat evening. That was yesterday's run that still had us dry. My mistake.

Coverage isn't bad on this run...

On Saturday night when Garth Brooks plays Thunder Rolls literally could be thunder rolling above us? Lol

Trentonwx06 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 2:48 pm On Saturday night when Garth Brooks plays Thunder Rolls literally could be thunder rolling above us? Lol

That's a good one!

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 2:24 pm Coverage isn't bad on this run...

Thunderboomers definitely possible SAT afternoon!! New yearly high for me at 85 so far today.

Thanks Mike for the intra hour shot. Interesting... GFS was showing about 50/50 coverage too.

85 here too... I believe it is also my warmest. CVG also the same at 85

It'll be interesting to see if the MJO forecast headed into the Pac with strength can materialize or will the easterlies continue to quash any such outcome, which has been the case over the last few months.

84 here in G'ville and 85 in DAY. Now at 86 here.

87 here today, my warmest so far this year. CVG also hit 87... 90 was the record set back in 1896. So we missed that. The heat is going to back down a notch for the rest of the week and the humidity is coming down a tad also. I can already feel it here. Recall the dew map from earlier, now look:

The drier air should make it to at least I-65 before stopping. We look nice and sunny with pleasant air for the next few days. Saturday is now looking more likely for storms per latest data with the late afternoon and evening being prime time. Both the 18Z GFS and Euro agree. Sunday also has chances but wondering if Sat now has a higher chance then Sunday? They both agree on very high chances for Wed night next week. Could see a big MCS complex if we play our cards right.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed May 11, 2022 3:27 pm It'll be interesting to see if the MJO forecast headed into the Pac with strength can materialize or will the easterlies continue to quash any such outcome, which has been the case over the last few months.

Currently as of 5/9 per the Aussies it looks to be struggling to even get much into Phase 3. Thinking the neutral circle again as it hits the usual road block. Now does it re-emerge in time per a lot of guidance into the West Pac phases? Could mean some hotter weather come June in a La Nina if we get into Phase 7. Phase 6 doesn't look took to bad, fairly normal. Even the Aussie model has some Phase 8 action in June which is also more normal. Anyway... models are rushing this IMO so I am skeptical. Aussie model has it just going into the circle now as of 5/9 and the computer model itself has it in 6 on 5/11 already coming out of the circle. I think the models are way, way rushing this as usual. Model MJO forecasts have been pitiful for months and months!

CVG 87, DAY 86 and CMH 84 for Wed.

86 in my hood yesterday and can def feel the drier air this morning as it has dropped to 54 so far! A couple home weather stations to my west in the countryside fell into the upper 40s!

CVG hanging at 65 but the dews are great.... 45!

54 for my overnight low this morning here with dews in the 40s. Gorgeous!

I think all are dry today. For Friday, I am going to throw in a CYA POP for the extreme S / SE tier of counties as moisture from the upper low coming in from the east, begins to increase. Dry everyone else. Everyone has a shot Sat afternoon and evening and again Sunday into Monday morning with the cold front. Then in NW Flow, I think an MCS is still on the table with the timing TBD. Sometime Wed or Wed night looks to be the window at this time. Another front due in by next weekend then I think we will warm up again.

BG StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2022/05/12/goode- ... -blog-512/

Looks like the dry air has pushed all the way westward to the IL/IN border. Most of Indiana with dews in the 40s and 50s while Illinois still has many 60s/70s dews.

While we stay quiet, looks like another active severe weather day up in the eastern Dakotas/Minnesota region with a moderate risk there. Twin Cities were rocked last night with a massive squall line and 70+ mph winds. Sooner or later our time will come.

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 9:48 am Looks like the dry air has pushed all the way westward to the IL/IN border. Most of Indiana with dews in the 40s and 50s while Illinois still has many 60s/70s dews.

Oh wow! The boundary pushed further west then I thought. Awesome!