Ohio Valley Weather Observation & Discussion
https://absolutevorticity.com/
Pete is the man! He was so kind and nice to my community after the tornado in ‘99. He even came to my school to do a presentation after with Larry Handley to calm down us kiddos’ (and adults, too) nerves. I.e. explaining things like what scud clouds are and that they are not tornadoes even though they can look scary. Shoot, I was petrified of dark clouds for months after the fact, yet now I’m a storm junkie. The brain sure is wild!
Now the 12Z CMC sharpens it up fast enough now to bring light snow SE of I-71 Sat night and SE Crew in general for SB morning. Def the furthest NW solution I've seen in days.
Thanks Tim! Clouds didn't last long and we got some sunshine so there you go. Plus strong SW flow ahead of the next front. We're pushing 50 now.tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:05 pm Good Afternoon Les and you had the temp better for today than I did. Looks like we should reach 50 before the front moves through and winds are changing to the west around Indy already so a few more hours before we start to cool down. Still working on the weekend forecast
Awesome Trev! Nice to see Pete is still down in Dallas after all these years. A shame he didn't stay in our market longer but I get it.Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:25 pmPete is the man! He was so kind and nice to my community after the tornado in ‘99. He even came to my school to do a presentation after with Larry Handley to calm down us kiddos’ (and adults, too) nerves. I.e. explaining things like what scud clouds are and that they are not tornadoes even though they can look scary. Shoot, I was petrified of dark clouds for months after the fact, yet now I’m a storm junkie. The brain sure is wild!
I exchange messages with Pete every so often to this day. Maybe I’ll see if he wants to pop on here and say hi!
Agreed... def an improvement. So with me forecasting it to be a miss to the SE, watch us reel it in and this things comes back to the NW.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:07 pm So far the whole 12z suite was a trend of improvement for SBS. Thats all you can ask atm. Not enough for CVGland, YET. Some big differences at the 500mb levels and also how the models are handling the northern shortwave strength and sharpness and intermingling with the Southern shortwave . 4 or 4 and half days out still
Not completely ruling it out, but low chances as everybody knows. Would like to see better Ensemble support for what the CMC is showing today. We had better GEFS support the other day and it has backed off since.Lol, I hadn't even looked at the CMC, so another improvement, that's all I ask atm.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:49 pmAgreed... def an improvement. So with me forecasting it to be a miss to the SE, watch us reel it in and this things comes back to the NW.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:07 pm So far the whole 12z suite was a trend of improvement for SBS. Thats all you can ask atm. Not enough for CVGland, YET. Some big differences at the 500mb levels and also how the models are handling the northern shortwave strength and sharpness and intermingling with the Southern shortwave . 4 or 4 and half days out still
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:54 pmLol, I hadn't even looked at the CMC, I WAS Including the NAM at long range, so another improvement, that's all I ask atm.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:49 pmAgreed... def an improvement. So with me forecasting it to be a miss to the SE, watch us reel it in and this things comes back to the NW.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:07 pm So far the whole 12z suite was a trend of improvement for SBS. Thats all you can ask atm. Not enough for CVGland, YET. Some big differences at the 500mb levels and also how the models are handling the northern shortwave strength and sharpness and intermingling with the Southern shortwave . 4 or 4 and half days out still
Right?!? And he left us with Chin Mantron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:47 pmAwesome Trev! Nice to see Pete is still down in Dallas after all these years. A shame he didn't stay in our market longer but I get it.Trevor wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 12:25 pmPete is the man! He was so kind and nice to my community after the tornado in ‘99. He even came to my school to do a presentation after with Larry Handley to calm down us kiddos’ (and adults, too) nerves. I.e. explaining things like what scud clouds are and that they are not tornadoes even though they can look scary. Shoot, I was petrified of dark clouds for months after the fact, yet now I’m a storm junkie. The brain sure is wild!
I exchange messages with Pete every so often to this day. Maybe I’ll see if he wants to pop on here and say hi!
Les, i absolutely thought the same thing. Its very similar to the GFS vorticity distribution, yet doesn's translate to the surfacetron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:51 pm 12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.
Definately! The support is better today for sure. I am keeping my Eastern KY / WV call going for now. I am not sold as of yet on the CMC's solution. I would say too that the Euro and GFS are close per 500 MB. That's more important anyway. The surface always works itself out later.Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:56 pmLes, i absolutely thought the same thing. Its very similar to the GFS vorticity distribution, yet doesn's translate to the surfacetron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:51 pm 12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.
Hi Les, do you see this light rain for late afternoon and early evening on Friday to be widespread or do you see breaks? Going to a Bengals pub crawl in Cheviot. Thanks
Anyway... ILN has released some dates for the virtual storm spotter classes for this year. As far as I know, they are not expecting any of these to become in person.The EURO has had that clipper system for days and wonder if it keeps the energy back for that system.tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:51 pm 12Z Euro... anybody look at that one yet for this weekend? The surface maps show nothinbg, but they do not jive at all with the 500 MB vorticity maps. The energy is all behind the front and some of it is left behind in Canada also since we don't get the phase. You would think we shiould see more precip associated with such a virgeous trough bit nope. Euro can be tossed because there should be some QPF over the S Apps and Mid ATL states abnd there's nothing.
My call all along has been for scattered showers, nothing widespread or heavy. Euro has 0.10" for QPF which is more along my thinking. Tim likes the wetter GFS if I remember his thoughts correctly.winterstormjoe wrote: ↑Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:00 pmHi Les, do you see this light rain for late afternoon and early evening on Friday to be widespread or do you see breaks? Going to a Bengals pub crawl in Cheviot. Thanks