January 2022 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Found this cute little graphic lol

Model Times.jpg

[Bgoney]

A few map comparisons to show what we're talking about

models-2022010912-f144.500h.gif

models-2022010912-surf.gif

[tron777]

EPS looks supportive as well. Has a low coming out of Texas into the TN Valley then does the EC transfer. Not a bad signal on the mean from 51 members.

[tron777]

33 here, 34 CVG. Couple of cold, but dry days ahead.

[tron777]

12Z EPS is fantastic! Starts in about 6 days. Couple bouts of the below modeled pattern at Day 15 being shown. Should mean we should snow at some point, if correct, and get very cold too. Like much colder then we have already seen.

EPSLongRange.jpg

[tron777]

[tron777]

Nice long term AFD from the boys this afternoon.

For Thursday and beyond, uncertainty in the forecast remains
uncharacteristically high. Evaluating GFS/Euro deterministic
solutions reveals several significant differences. The first
difference is associated with the phasing of a shortwave moving
through the southern US and the broader upper level trough over the
eastern US late in the week. GFS is more efficient, rapidly
deepening a low pressure off the East Coast, while the Euro is
farther to the east and less intense. Due to these different
solutions, upstream flow and the features within them are altered as
well. Another shortwave digging southward into the northern Plains
and upper Midwest wraps up over the Ohio Valley in the Euro, but is
strung out toward the southwest US in the GFS. This feature is what
will supply the next chances for precipitation Saturday and Sunday.

Evaluating the ensemble suite only confirms the wide spread in
possible outcomes for the Saturday system. The key appears tied to
how efficiently the shortwave ejects eastward from central Canada
and the Pacific Northwest into the Midwest/Ohio Valley.
Deterministic solutions will continue to flip back and forth over
the next few days. Regarding the forecast, will stick with the NBM
blend which favors increasing PoPs Saturday/Saturday night. Limited
PoPs from likely to chance given the current uncertainty.
Precipitation type forecasts are also made with very low confidence.
Changes in the trajectory of the low pressure will alter antecedent
air masses, but accumulating snow is a possible solution.

[tron777]

I saw 3 or 4 big hitters on the 18Z GEFS members in the long term. Somethings going to pop! It is just a matter of when with regards to the upcoming pattern IMO.

[Bgoney]

Nice write up and summary from ILN of all the stuff talked about this afternoon from the AV posters.

[Bgoney]

Who wants to see snow flying during the Bengals game Saturday? Possibility went up a notch as the GFS overnight is catching on to what the EU is sniffing out. A stronger , slower, more south peice of energy late week. A good trend for now

[tron777]

Good morning all! 17 here this morning. A cold start to the week but quiet will give way to the 40s (briefly) before we focus on our next system due in on Sat. Looking like increasing chances for snow on Sat per the overnight guidance. OP GFS shows mainly snow now. Follow up clipper Mon of next week misses way north. CMC has rain to snow on Sat with the clipper way north. OP Euro takes the Sat. system a bit too much southward but we do get clipped by it. However, we also get the Mon clipper with some light snow as well. So we continue to see differences showing up beginning this weekend with the forecast. Stay tuned... Longer term continues to look active, and cold with more potential as we have been saying on here for a while now.

[Bgoney]

MJO with a tick closer to 8 according to satellite !!!

r5s_snd_1240.jpg

[tron777]

We're back! GFS shifted south a little too much for Sat. CMC and Euro bring accumulating snow to the area. So that's kind of where we are at on Sat's action.

[tron777]

Euro brings in 0.10" of QPF to CVG late Thurs, should be snow per text data the Fri night into Sat, an additional 0.22" of QPF. Cold after that too.

[Bgoney]

I like both the EU/GFS . We're in a good spot and I like our chances. GFS ensembles look good with some north some west and some in between, that's a great sign this far out

[tron777]

I like both the EU/GFS . We're in a good spot and I like our chances. GFS ensembles look good with some north some west and some in between, that's a great sign this far out

Gonna wait until tomorrow to see how it looks but it might be a thread worthy event since we'll be 4-5 days out.

[young pup]

I like both the EU/GFS . We're in a good spot and I like our chances. GFS ensembles look good with some north some west and some in between, that's a great sign this far out

Gonna wait until tomorrow to see how it looks but it might be a thread worthy event since we'll be 4-5 days out.

Please wait until 3 or 4 days out. Don't want to jinx it.

[Bgoney]

I like both the EU/GFS . We're in a good spot and I like our chances. GFS ensembles look good with some north some west and some in between, that's a great sign this far out

Gonna wait until tomorrow to see how it looks but it might be a thread worthy event since we'll be 4-5 days out.

Please wait until 3 or 4 days out. Don't want to jinx it.

Absolutely, I just like the progression of the models at this stage

[tron777]

I like both the EU/GFS . We're in a good spot and I like our chances. GFS ensembles look good with some north some west and some in between, that's a great sign this far out

Gonna wait until tomorrow to see how it looks but it might be a thread worthy event since we'll be 4-5 days out.

Please wait until 3 or 4 days out. Don't want to jinx it.

Absolutely, I just like the progression of the models at this stage

I hear you all loud and clear!

[tron777]

Models track the low as follows for the Saturday system:

CMC - Furthest north Between LEX and CVG track
Euro - N Gulf Coast States
GFS - S Gulf Coast States
EPS - N Gulf Coast States
GEFS - KY / TN boarder
UKIE - Gulf Coast

[Bgoney]

Models track the low as follows for the Saturday system:

CMC - Furthest north Between LEX and CVG track
Euro - N Gulf Coast States
GFS - S Gulf Coast States
EPS - N Gulf Coast States
GEFS - KY / TN boarder
UKIE - Gulf Coast

At this point , I'm leaning to the GEFs as being the closest track scenario

[tron777]

Models track the low as follows for the Saturday system:

CMC - Furthest north Between LEX and CVG track
Euro - N Gulf Coast States
GFS - S Gulf Coast States
EPS - N Gulf Coast States
GEFS - KY / TN boarder
UKIE - Gulf Coast

At this point , I'm leaning to the GEFs as being the closest track scenario

It is the snowiest attm. The whole 12Z GEFS package was nice even beyond this system. Should have a fun few weeks coming up.

[tron777]

TotalSnow.png

Most places need some help, esp I-70. IND only 0.5" on the season. DAY 0.9" CMH 1.4" We are at 1.3" down here in CVG Land. So not much too speak of for anyone yet in our forum area. Been in Michigan, LES areas or Central KY on south. Like the same places that have been getting hit for years now. Our zone has been in a void. Cincy, Dayton, Indy, and Columbus. All cities could use some white gold. Let's see how the pattern delivers for the last 3 weeks of the month. I think we're going to be happy.

[tron777]

12Z EPS out to 360 hours. Wow... whose ready?

EPS.gif

[young pup]

I like both the EU/GFS . We're in a good spot and I like our chances. GFS ensembles look good with some north some west and some in between, that's a great sign this far out

Gonna wait until tomorrow to see how it looks but it might be a thread worthy event since we'll be 4-5 days out.

Please wait until 3 or 4 days out. Don't want to jinx it.

Absolutely, I just like the progression of the models at this stage

I hear you all loud and clear!

Thank you.