Absolute Vorticity

cloudy72 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 1:36 pm 12z GFS actually a few millibars deeper and a bit more west. Yeah gas up!

3 hits for Lake Charles? No way! Remember they got whacked by 2 big canes already. Let's hope it misses LA and gets Texas or AL instead. GFS run also misses us and keeps the moisture west with this track.

Geez the 12z Euro is almost a copy of the GFS - it's weaker and a bit faster. But still zeroes in on poor Lake Charles!

NHC already playing this up as well!

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or
over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional
development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding
will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition,
this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind,
and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas,
and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next
week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

12Z Euro is coming in stronger (I think this one is called 99L) with the tropical wave we are watching in the Caribbean. It should be in the S Gulf by Fri or Sat and really begin to get its act together after that thanks to a low shear and warm SST environment. The Euro has this system making landfall as a 966 MB low over SW LA Mon evening. Poor Lake Charles. Sure hope the track changes more, seriously. Not good for my customers or the actual people who live there. Don't know how much more that town can take.

Looks like we are on the same page Mike.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 2:37 pm Looks like we are on the same page Mike.

Thank you very much for clarifying, Les!

Prayerfully things will change in the coming days re Louisiana i.e.

MVWxObserver wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 4:33 pm Thank you very much for clarifying, Les!

Prayerfully things will change in the coming days re Louisiana i.e.

Anyone from TX to MS should be paying attn for sure.

18Z GFS has said system stepping on the gas pedal and speeding to the LA coast

Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 6:44 pm 18Z GFS has said system stepping on the gas pedal and speeding to the LA coast

Further East and weaker too as a result. Instead of Lake Charles, we get a New Orleans hit.

We have a high chance for development now. We should get a TD in the next day or so and a name by Fri or Sat.

Ensemble GFS is slightly more west at landfall than OP

12Z GFS has 2 big Gulf Canes on this run now... Yikes! Anyway... TD 9 is here!

Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 79.2W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Awesome! Hi Bgoney! Glad you are covering this too!

Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

Ida is here!

Tropical Storm Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
520 PM EDT Thu Aug 26 2021

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM...

Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft data indicate that the
depression has strengthened to Tropical Storm Ida. The maximum
sustained winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.


SUMMARY OF 520 PM EDT...2120 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 79.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

I am expecting Ida to be a major hurricane at landfall. I would say we should get a Cat 3 out of it. A Cat 4 is also not entirely out of the question. Lots of warm waters when this thing gets in the Gulf, like 90 degree water temps? Wow! This thing should explode in a couple more days.

NHC went with the M at landfall for IDA. Expecting a cat 3 atm. It will have 30-36 hrs once a hurricane to gain strength before landfall

Tropical Storm Ida Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092021
500 AM EDT Fri Aug 27 2021

...IDA STRENGTHENS AS THE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 81.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SE OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES



We also still have 2 more waves out there to keep an eye on. Both have a high or med. chance to become a TD.

The center of Ida passed N of Grand Cayman about an hour ago and you can see the radar image below for confirmation.

No doubt like Les mentioned this weekend is going to be hot and maybe the hottest of the year with ridging ahead of the Hurricane. Still to early to see what happens with the local weather but at this point folks south and east have a better shot of heavy rains but will no more probably by Sunday. I do worry about the folks in Tn as they are still recovering from the last tropical system in the eastern part of the state and the heavy rains that hit parts of the central area this past week. They will no doubt have heavy rains so no good for them. The good thing for us is after the system heads to the northeast we should get a nicer brand of fresh cool air. I believe the systems in the Atlantic are having problems with the Saharan dust and one reason they are not developing much.. I would take about 1 inch and be happy next week.

Just a coincidence obviously, but since 2001, 9 "I" named storms have been retired! See graphic below. Let's hope Ida is not one of them to make it 10.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 27, 2021 7:38 am Just a coincidence obviously, but since 2001, 9 "I" named storms have been retired! See graphic below. Let's hope Ida is not one of them to make it 10.


ICanes.jpg

Pretty wild but it makes sense because getting into the letters proabably H-N is where the most likely stronger storms would occur.

Pressure down to 996 MB on latest recon pass.... 8am advisory now has her at 60 mph for max. sustained winds. Since this system looks to be a little stronger then what we've been seeing this year and it 100% looks to have impacts to the USA, I will make a separate thread for all Ida related discussions. Use this thread for everything else in the tropical ATL basin, thanks.

Link to TS Ida thread: http://absolutevorticity.com/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=64