Absolute Vorticity

Nothing new overnight to solidify anything for Tuesday and my biggest concern being the squeeze of QPF on the northern portion of the precip shield moving upriver

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 5:48 am Nothing new overnight to solidify anything for Tuesday and my biggest concern being the squeeze of QPF on the northern portion of the precip shield moving upriver

Agreed.... you can clearly see the issue on each new GFS / GEFS run. I'm sure it's there on other models too that I haven't looked at yet today. The trend also seems to be to blow up the Wed PM into Thurs wave more but then we run into precip types issues as a result. A third one is likely by next weekend as the hits just keep on coming.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 6:02 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 5:48 am Nothing new overnight to solidify anything for Tuesday and my biggest concern being the squeeze of QPF on the northern portion of the precip shield moving upriver

Agreed.... you can clearly see the issue on each new GFS / GEFS run. I'm sure it's there on other models too that I haven't looked at yet today. The trend also seems to be to blow up the Wed PM into Thurs wave more but then we run into precip types issues as a result. A third one is likely by next weekend as the hits just keep on coming.

EPS/EU wasn’t bad for Oz QPF for most of the region, but it has uncharacteristically waffled back and forth with the northern edge, so would like to see some back to back to back consistency, lol

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 6:11 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 6:02 am

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 5:48 am Nothing new overnight to solidify anything for Tuesday and my biggest concern being the squeeze of QPF on the northern portion of the precip shield moving upriver

Agreed.... you can clearly see the issue on each new GFS / GEFS run. I'm sure it's there on other models too that I haven't looked at yet today. The trend also seems to be to blow up the Wed PM into Thurs wave more but then we run into precip types issues as a result. A third one is likely by next weekend as the hits just keep on coming.

EPS/EU wasn’t bad for Oz QPF for most of the region, but it has uncharacteristically waffled back and forth with the northern edge, so would like to see some back to back to back consistency, lol

Thanks for the update. The foreign models have had more moisture versus the American models that is for sure. Hopefully, we'll get some kind of agreement at least for Tues once this Sat system moves thru. It's going to be an interesting weekend coming up tracking this stuff.

6Z EPS Mean has a 2-4" event for the area for round 1 on Tuesday (using a 10:1 ratio)

Closer look at the 0z euro ( my interpretation) would have 1-2” along the I71 corridor with mixing issues for the SEcrew and an inch or less for Dayton

6Z Euro looked better.

CVG

With the later start time on Tuesday (instead partly on Monday) for first system and the Wednesday system quickly on its heels, models are having a tough go with figuring out both systems effect one another’s outcome

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 8:11 am With the later start time on Tuesday (instead partly on Monday) for first system and the Wednesday system quickly on its heels, models are having a tough go with figuring out both systems effect one another’s outcome

Great post! With such an active pattern unfolding, we are going to be seeing last minute forecast changes when we get closer to the start time of each system. This new pattern is going to be a tough one for us forecasters to get correct, IMO.

man i screwed up big time with yesterdays storm. i had decided to postpone any cleanup till after it was done. I did not want to clear away 1 inch of sleet only to have a sheet of ice layer afterwards. I figured it would been better to have it on top and just deal with a crusty top. well there was frz rain / sleet coming down till like 2 pm and I thought id let it go till the morning. this morning i have nothing but a solid 1.5" thick ice skating rink. i will just about need a jackhammer to do cleanup now. i am really kicking myself on why i waited so long.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 9:06 am man i screwed up big time with yesterdays storm. i had decided to postpone any cleanup till after it was done. I did not want to clear away 1 inch of sleet only to have a sheet of ice layer afterwards. I figured it would been better to have it on top and just deal with a crusty top. well there was frz rain / sleet coming down till like 2 pm and I thought id let it go till the morning. this morning i have nothing but a solid 1.5" thick ice skating rink. i will just about need a jackhammer to do cleanup now. i am really kicking myself on why i waited so long.

UGH.... that stinks! Looks like a lot of snow maybe headed in your direction the next 2 weeks or so depending on how each of these systems track. I hope you're able to get some of it removed before that happens.

Hey everyone! I’m up in Cleveland and supposed to drive home tomorrow (Saturday AM). Forecasts are kinda all over the place…should I leave tonight?

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 9:06 am man i screwed up big time with yesterdays storm. i had decided to postpone any cleanup till after it was done. I did not want to clear away 1 inch of sleet only to have a sheet of ice layer afterwards. I figured it would been better to have it on top and just deal with a crusty top. well there was frz rain / sleet coming down till like 2 pm and I thought id let it go till the morning. this morning i have nothing but a solid 1.5" thick ice skating rink. i will just about need a jackhammer to do cleanup now. i am really kicking myself on why i waited so long.

Hi Charles,

So sorry to hear about your situation with the ice build up, bro. Be of course careful with whatever route you take on it, during the 1980s my folks, sister and I resided in lower NY state and a family member ended up with an umbilical hernia by having tried chipping away at ice on our driveway up that way just having used a hoe e.g.

Good Morning and yes 4 systems over the next 9 days or so and yes these are the kind of systems we see often in the Ohio Valley and that means precip types and how just 20 miles difference can be the difference of all snow or a combo of everything you can throw in the kitchen sink. The trend of course has been somewhat milder next week and I can see that happening. Yes some decent cold coming in but it seems to want to spend more time out west and is looking for that window to head southeast. Many times it comes down with a stronger storm but at the moment these storms are not that strong though they can have a decent amount of moisture. IMO the set up next week is not easy and yes the pattern is fine for winter weather but a good pattern can sometimes not lead to a ton of snow.

I would go into more detail about each system but I would be throwing darts and don't want anyone to get hurt.

One major item to look at imo is the high out in western Canada. Strong high with plenty of cold air and how far south and east does this expand after each system. Since we talking about mid-Feb I don't anything like we saw in January. We have snow cover in the northern plains and upper mid-west but still lacking in the central plains. Not the end all to get the cold to move in but always like a little help.

My guess is I will try and keep up with Les on posts this weekend and that is saying something. Going need more caffeine to even come close.

12Z GFS bumped back north slightly with the snow shield for Tues so that's good. Hopefully the southern bleeding has stopped.

Thought I would get a head start on posts and try to keep Les at bay. Since we have a boundary somewhere south of us the plenty of moisture flowing over the stalled front. Looks like getting the atmosphere to moisten up is rather easy so we don't waste to much time in getting precip to fall. How far north the precip ends up going is a different animal and Bgoney mentioned how the trend has been for moisture not getting as far north as models show. That is a possibility so how much precip falls in Dayton and how much in Lexington could be quite the difference.

The systems will move through quickly with an west to east track but with the front being near us you can still get a good 8-10 hours of precip to fall. If a system gets stronger which I believe the one later Wednesday and Thursday has a better shot of that happening then the amount of time that precip falls could be extended past 12 hours. Of course a stronger system and chances of mixed of just plain rain will increase.

So I am 2 posts ahead of Les at the moment.

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 11:07 am So I am 2 posts ahead of Les at the moment.

Don't look at the overall stats though.

Models are coming into somewhat better agreement for the stronger wave on Thurs. The river is right on the rain / snow line as usual. See 12Z GFS...

12Z Canadian still showing the stronger solution (and snowier too) for Tuesday. I'm waiting for one of these solutions to come to the fore front so I can make a more accurate call. Probably won't be until sometime over the weekend I would guess.

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 11:13 am Models are coming into somewhat better agreement for the stronger wave on Thurs. The river is right on the rain / snow line as usual. See 12Z GFS...

Les and how much snow cover we get with the first system can also determine where the low pressure decides to track. Many times it likes an area just south of the snow cover. Where that is at this point and just not sure. I am with you about waiting to see if a model comes to the forefront. Latest models have the Euro getting back on track as it did very bad in early January but seems to be doing better at the moment.

Canadian looking more interesting for the stronger Wed night and Thurs wave too. Would love to see that Apps runner!

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 11:21 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Feb 07, 2025 11:13 am Models are coming into somewhat better agreement for the stronger wave on Thurs. The river is right on the rain / snow line as usual. See 12Z GFS...

Les and how much snow cover we get with the first system can also determine where the low pressure decides to track. Many times it likes an area just south of the snow cover. Where that is at this point and just not sure. I am with you about waiting to see if a model comes to the forefront. Latest models have the Euro getting back on track as it did very bad in early January but seems to be doing better at the moment.

We might have to start that thread this evening or in the morning. I'm close to pulling the trigger. Very interested to see the Euro later on.