Absolute Vorticity

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:22 am**

The north jog from the 12z suite yesterday was met with a south jog from overnight Oz. Still been a pretty steady ride even without the full sampling of data. The details start with tonight’s Oz and even more so tomorrow 12z

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:35 am**

Another trend I have noticed on some models overnight.... Take the 6Z RGEM for example. It is all snow at CVG (I wouldn't rule out a touch of sleet to be honest though). Anyway a weaker low pass due to more confluence. What's interesting here is RGEM has the low about 1003-1004 MB thru extreme NE TN / SE Ky on into WV. Then the low weakens and starts to crank up a low off the East Coast before pulling away. This would help limit the WAA and potentially keep the ice out of some of our hairs anyway. That would also mean a bit less QPF too. That would hurt the I-70 Crew's bigger snow chances (still a nice storm though).

If this trend continues today the goal posts for the heaviest snow will be somewhere between Dayton and Cincinnati in my mind.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:38 am**

NAM and GFS are the furthest north with the CMC, RGEM, Euro, UMET being further south. Speaking of the Euro, anyone got any data from the 6Z run please? Thanks!

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:44 am**

6zEU stays south

IMG_2949.png

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:48 am**

For our I70 crew , that’s as far south as I would want. They’ll be a sharp cutoff of qpf on that North precip shield

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:51 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:48 am For our I70 crew , that’s as far south as I would want. They’ll be a sharp cutoff of qpf on that North precip shield

Thanks for posting that! With the heavier totals S of us, I would have to say that some of that is sleet and / or ice contamination. Let's hope that it doesn't keep going more and more south lol.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:56 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:51 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:48 am For our I70 crew , that’s as far south as I would want. They’ll be a sharp cutoff of qpf on that North precip shield
Thanks for posting that! With the heavier totals S of us, I would have to say that some of that is sleet and / or ice contamination. Let's hope that it doesn't keep going more and more south lol.

I like it Tron and I stand corrected. I think this is a great setup for your area. A little worried that sref/nam isn’t following suit, but there’s plenty of time for it to catch up.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:57 am**

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:56 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:51 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:48 am For our I70 crew , that’s as far south as I would want. They’ll be a sharp cutoff of qpf on that North precip shield
Thanks for posting that! With the heavier totals S of us, I would have to say that some of that is sleet and / or ice contamination. Let's hope that it doesn't keep going more and more south lol.
I like it Tron and I stand corrected. I think this is a great setup for your area. A little worried that sref/nam isn’t following suit, but there’s plenty of time for it to catch up.

Speaking of the SREF, do you mind posting what the SREF plume has (I assume the latest is 3Z) for CVG? Curious to see what the plumes show for snow as well as precip type. In case you didn't see it, I am limited (at work) to what I am able to see online. Thanks!

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:01 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:57 am
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:56 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:51 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:48 am For our I70 crew , that’s as far south as I would want. They’ll be a sharp cutoff of qpf on that North precip shield
Thanks for posting that! With the heavier totals S of us, I would have to say that some of that is sleet and / or ice contamination. Let's hope that it doesn't keep going more and more south lol.
I like it Tron and I stand corrected. I think this is a great setup for your area. A little worried that sref/nam isn’t following suit, but there’s plenty of time for it to catch up.
Speaking of the SREF, do you mind posting what the SREF plume has (I assume the latest is 3Z) for CVG? Curious to see what the plumes show for snow as well as precip type. In case you didn't see it, I am limited (at work) to what I am able to see online. Thanks!

Yep it’s the 03z run

IMG_1223.png

IMG_1224.png

IMG_1225.png

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:02 am**

0Z Euro AI is absolutely gorgeous for the Tri-state!

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:03 am**

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:01 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:57 am
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:56 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:51 am
Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:48 am For our I70 crew , that’s as far south as I would want. They’ll be a sharp cutoff of qpf on that North precip shield
Thanks for posting that! With the heavier totals S of us, I would have to say that some of that is sleet and / or ice contamination. Let's hope that it doesn't keep going more and more south lol.
I like it Tron and I stand corrected. I think this is a great setup for your area. A little worried that sref/nam isn’t following suit, but there’s plenty of time for it to catch up.
Speaking of the SREF, do you mind posting what the SREF plume has (I assume the latest is 3Z) for CVG? Curious to see what the plumes show for snow as well as precip type. In case you didn't see it, I am limited (at work) to what I am able to see online. Thanks!
Yep it’s the 03z run
IMG_1223.png
IMG_1224.png
IMG_1225.png

Thanks so much! Yeah, we need to bail on that ice if it's possible.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:03 am**

There was a little wobble north compared to 21z, but nothing to worry about. Looks like 03z was stronger also with more QPF

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:03 am**

Speaking of consistency, The EU AI model has been in a more southern camp for a good while and has been very stingy with Qpf compared to other models, especially along I70 and the rest of the area north of the river for that matter

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:04 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:03 am
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:01 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:57 am
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:56 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:51 am

Thanks for posting that! With the heavier totals S of us, I would have to say that some of that is sleet and / or ice contamination. Let's hope that it doesn't keep going more and more south lol.
I like it Tron and I stand corrected. I think this is a great setup for your area. A little worried that sref/nam isn’t following suit, but there’s plenty of time for it to catch up.
Speaking of the SREF, do you mind posting what the SREF plume has (I assume the latest is 3Z) for CVG? Curious to see what the plumes show for snow as well as precip type. In case you didn't see it, I am limited (at work) to what I am able to see online. Thanks!
Yep it’s the 03z run
IMG_1223.png
IMG_1224.png
IMG_1225.png
Thanks so much! Yeah, we need to bail on that ice if it's possible.

No problem!

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:06 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:03 am Speaking of consistency, The EU AI model has been in a more southern camp for a good while and has been very stingy with Qpf especially along I70 and the rest of the area north of the river for that matter

Surprisingly, this is the only storm it’s been close with. I’ve been watching it all of December and it hasn’t done well.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:09 am**

12z and 6z Euro is much faster with the transfer to a secondary low . It’s going to be interesting when this transfers. Some models have the transfer happening when the primary curls up to West Virginia.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:13 am**

Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:09 am 12z and 6z Euro is much faster with the transfer to a secondary low . It’s going to be interesting when this transfers. Some models have the transfer happening when the primary curls up to West Virginia.

IMO we want the primary to hang on as long as possible in WV for the deformation zone snow on Monday. Certainly an interesting system to track with a lot of possibilities even 48 hours out.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:15 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:02 am 0Z Euro AI is absolutely gorgeous for the Tri-state!

Good Morning Les and that is perfect and was the track I mentioned either yesterday or the day before and that is a Memphis to Corbin path for the low pressure. Not sure that will happen but that is a great track especially when you already have the cold in place to start a storm.

I do like what the NWS put out with 4-8inches and a 1/4 inch of ice locally and 5-10 further north with less ice of course. Again remember snow totals are just an educated guess and models will do a more overall look and we know storms do not care about the models. If the moisture is like the gfs shows somebody probably between CVG-INDY would get some of those totals over a foot imo

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:15 am**

I would totally throw out 0z gfs it doesn’t even have ensemble support. 06z gfs has better ensemble support, (I never thought I would be saying that because 06 gfs is usually terrible)

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:16 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:13 am
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:09 am 12z and 6z Euro is much faster with the transfer to a secondary low . It’s going to be interesting when this transfers. Some models have the transfer happening when the primary curls up to West Virginia.
IMO we want the primary to hang on as long as possible in WV for the deformation zone snow on Monday. Certainly an interesting system to track with a lot of possibilities even 48 hours out.

Yes absolutely, that would keep the upper level low more intact and trap that good snow at the end.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:16 am**

Did the Kroger shopping this morning and already very very busy plus after the holiday's and tons of restocking going on. Have plenty of beer so I am good

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:18 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:13 am
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:09 am 12z and 6z Euro is much faster with the transfer to a secondary low . It’s going to be interesting when this transfers. Some models have the transfer happening when the primary curls up to West Virginia.
IMO we want the primary to hang on as long as possible in WV for the deformation zone snow on Monday. Certainly an interesting system to track with a lot of possibilities even 48 hours out.

It would hang on if it’s stronger, but that presents issues as well . Danged if do, danged if you don’t, lol

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:18 am**

tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 6:19 am So we have an interesting model battle shaping up today. The GFS is more north and wetter while the Euro is more south and drier. Which solution wins? Hope to find that out today. It's all the difference for us along / S of the River. An example: My hood could see 6-10" of snow / sleet if the Euro is right. If it's the GFS, then I could get snow and sleet accum of 4-6" with up to 1/4" of ice. Yikes! That' kind of what we're at.

Major implication for I-70 Crew too. Less snow with the Euro say 4-6" but more snow with the GFS in the order of 6-12" plus. For SE Crew, the dry slot would east away at some of the QPF and thus impact totals. I could say up to 1/2" of ice and 2-4" of snow and sleet would be a decent call there versus 4-6" of snow and probably 1/4" of ice on the Euro.

Much to keep an eye on as the energy begins to move onshore the Western US today.

I think the 12z package will be very telling and more so 0z tomorrow.

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:23 am**

tpweather wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:16 am Did the Kroger shopping this morning and already very very busy plus after the holiday's and tons of restocking going on. Have plenty of beer so I am good

Ditto! I'm ready to rock n roll after the workday today!

Posted: **Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:24 am**

Bgoney wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:18 am
tron777 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:13 am
Phr0z3n wrote: ↑Fri Jan 03, 2025 7:09 am 12z and 6z Euro is much faster with the transfer to a secondary low . It’s going to be interesting when this transfers. Some models have the transfer happening when the primary curls up to West Virginia.
IMO we want the primary to hang on as long as possible in WV for the deformation zone snow on Monday. Certainly an interesting system to track with a lot of possibilities even 48 hours out.
It would hang on if it’s stronger, but that presents issues as well . Danged if do, danged if you don’t, lol

No doubt! We rarely do easy around here when it comes to big snows.

Absolute Vorticity

January 5-6th, 2025 The Double Digit Storm

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season

Re: January 5-6th, 2025 First Legit Winter Storm of the Season