Absolute Vorticity

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I'll take the GFS and / or Canadian for here in Darke e.g., Pete!

In Cincy, that would be high end advisory, low end warning criteria.

fyrfyter wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 7:42 pm In Cincy, that would be high end advisory, low end warning criteria.

Yes plus like the last system every flake will accumulate.

Qpf fairly consistent across the board for the whole region. GFS/EU with a range of .25”-.35” from I70 down to NK and the CMC with .20”-.30”

why no thread ?

What are we looking at with temperatures later this week? I’ve seen some say we are gonna be below zero early Friday morning.

Bgoney wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 8:47 pm Qpf fairly consistent across the board for the whole region. GFS/EU with a range of .25”-.35” from I70 down to NK and the CMC with .20”-.30”

What is qpf range for north of I-70, Darke Co. e.g.?

Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

Good morning all! I also picked up another covering overnight and there are still some flurries around this morning. I hope the roads are ok. Guess I am about to find out lol

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

Same- extremely fluffy and unexpected. They are supposedly going to school today, but the new snowfall isn’t going to make things any better.

All schools around my hood are closed and closed before I went to bed last night. Flurries and snow showers will be around today. Then we have our Pack Refresher in the other thread. Another light snow maker will move in Sun night and Monday and it will bring in a fresh batch of cold air for next week. The Monday system looks like an inch or so or less at this time.

In the extended range, the pattern continues to look active. The next window for a big storm looks to be Jan 18-21st time period. Could be a couple of systems in there or one big one. Could be an EC Low or a low for us. I will continue to monitor this but this period might be the next window for a more significant storm.

When do we get above 32 and at the moment probably next week. Do we see a January Thaw and mixed signals on that at the moment. Could be short-lived type but again just to early to call. Many questions to answer in the longer term but at least for the next week to ten days below normal temps is the way to go. Precip may be below normal but in terms of snowfall should be above the normal.

tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 6:44 am When do we get above 32 and at the moment probably next week. Do we see a January Thaw and mixed signals on that at the moment. Could be short-lived type but again just to early to call. Many questions to answer in the longer term but at least for the next week to ten days below normal temps is the way to go. Precip may be below normal but in terms of snowfall should be above the normal.

Precip will be below normal since it is all falling as snow. That is a given.

Look for on and off flurries and snow showers to continue today in the cold air mass. We have that weak shortwave moving thru as well as a favorable fetch off of Lake Michigan.

Tim.... In terms of the classic January thaw, I am watching the MJO. We look to get into phase 1, 2, and maybe even 3 as the rest of January rolls on. Don't know if it craps out in 3 and goes back into the COD or if it continues into 4. Models are mixed on this. Phase 3 is a cold phase later in January and beyond. 4-6 as we know are torches.

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

snow breeds snow. in good years like what you are having it snows when its not even suppose to. iv'e had those type of winters before

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:36 am

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

snow breeds snow. in good years like what you are having it snows when its not even suppose to. iv'e had those type of winters before

Those winters are so rare here, but so far Charles, it's exactly what is happening.

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:36 am

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

snow breeds snow. in good years like what you are having it snows when its not even suppose to. iv'e had those type of winters before

I agree. Every system seems to be on steroids in those types of years. Almost every storm will produce more snow than modeled.

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:36 am

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

snow breeds snow. in good years like what you are having it snows when its not even suppose to. iv'e had those type of winters before

I agree. Every system seems to be on steroids in those types of years. Almost every storm will produce more snow than modeled.

I was surprised at the 1/2"+ I saw when I got up this morning that is for sure. I was only expecting some flurries.

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:38 am

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:36 am

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

snow breeds snow. in good years like what you are having it snows when its not even suppose to. iv'e had those type of winters before

I agree. Every system seems to be on steroids in those types of years. Almost every storm will produce more snow than modeled.

I was surprised at the 1/2"+ I saw when I got up this morning that is for sure. I was only expecting some flurries.

Figured it was just the typical atmosphere wringing out the last possible drop of moisture in the cold air.

House of Cards wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 10:04 am

tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:38 am

dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 9:30 am

airwolf76 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 8:36 am

CINCINNATI01 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 08, 2025 4:15 am Picked up a solid half inch overnight in hebron ky

snow breeds snow. in good years like what you are having it snows when its not even suppose to. iv'e had those type of winters before

I agree. Every system seems to be on steroids in those types of years. Almost every storm will produce more snow than modeled.

I was surprised at the 1/2"+ I saw when I got up this morning that is for sure. I was only expecting some flurries.

Figured it was just the typical atmosphere wringing out the last possible drop of moisture in the cold air.

Bingo, Dave!